Author: expectingalpha

Grinchy Dow 20,000

expectingalpha Stocks , , , ,

This Week at MANIFEST (12/23/2016)

Grinchy Bill Griffeth and Rogue destroyer Janet Yellen squelched our Dow 20,000 rally and party hats last week. But we’re resilient and pressing on. This week’s update batch includes Procter & Gamble (PG), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Fastenal (FAST) and those homebuilders and building supply retailers.

Burnt Popcorn!

We refer to market fraught with turbulence and emotions as “popcorn days.” In most cases, it’s a spectator sport as panic or exuberance is met with explanations and rationale that are back-fitted for the day. And these memes are among the most recyclable phenomenon on the planet. The same logic often works in both directions. People are selling today because _____ aligns pretty nicely on other days with People are buying today because ______.

This week, I demonstrated (again) why I could never be a day trader. I really thought we’d reach Dow 20,000 although I would never have taken out a second mortgage on the theory.

Grinchy Bill Griffeth had some fun with the Dow 20,000 enthusiasts with the accompanying tweet made during Friday’s Closing Bell segment on CNBC.

Other antagonists sent messages that 4 days of prolonged Dow 20,000 watching should probably be treated with a trip to the doctor.

But, we got close … coming within 34 points before Janet Yellen and her Rogue storm troopers at the Fed rained on the parade at 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday. The rest of the week had some moments — but it was pretty much like watching salmon flipping up the ladder. We learned on our Alaska cruise that despite a brief fling when the salmon reach their birthplace, it doesn’t end well. And the week didn’t end well for our box of Dow 20K party hats.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 3. Fastenal (FAST)
  • 15. Procter & Gamble (PG)
  • 30. Home Depot (HD)
  • 34. Lowe’s (LOW)

Round Table Stocks

  • Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI)
  • Fastenal (FAST)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)

Best Small Companies

(None)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (12/23/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 2.9% vs. 3.3% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Pulte Homes (PHM)

Materially Weaker: Sunpower (SPWR). First Solar (FSLR)

Discontinued:

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 3.3%, unchanged from 3.3% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (12/23/2016)

Normally we “cut off” the list at a MANIFEST Rank of 95 or 90 … and you’ll note that we had to go a little deeper in order to have a list this week. Study and shop well.

The Long & Short. (December 23, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five (12/16/2016)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,
This weekly feature is now into its second year and we now have a handful of positions in the tracking portfolio with a holding period greater than a year.  The two-pronged screening method seems to have promise and it also serves as a “proving ground” for our exploration of excess/relative return-based selling guidelines.

Fave Five (12/16/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

This week we’re renaming the tracking portfolio and will begin referring to it as the Fave Five Legacy.

It will reside at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Allergan (AGN)
  • Roche (RHHBY)
  • Rocky Mountain Chocolate (RMCF)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (December 16, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +2.7% since inception. 50.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Best Small Companies (2016)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , , , , , ,

Best Small Companies (2016)

We lamented the decision by Forbes to discontinue their annual Best Small Companies list last year. 36 years in the running, the list provided a number of actionable opportunities over the last couple of decades for many of us. That said, while sticking to their core criteria, we may have actually improved the discovery and screening process. The returns posted by the lists, orphaned for two years now, have been 19.0% and 21.6%, respectively. For context, the Wilshire 5000 checked in at approximately 4% for both periods. With this experience under our belts, we head for the haystack in search of promising smaller companies to bolster our all-of-the-above investing discipline and hoping for a solid January Effect.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 2.5% from 10/31/2015 through Halloween 2016.

The Wilshire 5000 (VTSMX) did a little better, checking in at 4.1% during that same period.

Every Halloween, we remind our fellow investors to be extra vigilant for opportunities among smaller, faster-growing companies, during the 4th quarter of the year. History suggests that some opportunities are created by tax-related selling. The smaller companies are impacted the most and those with solid expectations often get a stock price boost during January when investors return after wash sale periods expire.

Small Cap Does Not Mean Small Company

It’s also a time when we are reminded that small cap does not mean small company. As a case in point, the average sales growth forecast for the Russell 2000 (EQWS) is approximately 6.0% — the type of growth more closely associated with stalwarts and larger blue chip contributors. If you’re really looking for small companies, we suggest an emphasis on higher growth rates. This month’s fund feature is Conestoga Small Cap (CCASX) featuring an average sales growth rate of 13%. Go ahead. Check out the companies held by Conestoga. (See page 4.) In a word, they obviously shop for leadership small companies in much the same way that we do and can/should be considered a qualified source of ideas. Conestoga features a +2.4% (annualized) excess return versus the S&P 500 over the last ten years.

The criteria used to build the list is largely faithful to the Forbes traditions. Specifically, annual revenues were limited to less than $1 billion, but required to be greater than $50 million. We also required a minimum stock price of $5. Because we feel the sales growth forecast is the strongest characteristic to define “small” — we required a minimum growth forecast of 10%. No asset-based companies from the financial sector were included. And finally, when we think about “Best” we think the combination of quality and return forecast is a great place to start.

This Year’s Haystack

The companies that qualify for our 2016 Best Small Company Manifest are shown in the accompanying table.

Newcomer Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) checks in at #1. VIVO is covered in the Value Line Standard Edition and had a 16% low total return forecast (11/18/2016). Meridian Bioscience provides diagnostic test kits, purified reagents and related products, as well as biopharmaceutical enabling technologies. Products are marketed to hospitals, laboratories, veterinary centers, physician offices, diagnostic manufacturers and biotech companies worldwide. The company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio and investors are encouraged to explore the investor relations materials at:
www.meridianbioscience.com

Diagnostics as a “theme” are fairly prevalent among the best small companies. Solomon Select feature Mesa Labs (MLAB) is one example and Mid-Michigan local favorite, Neogen (NEOG) is another. Both of these companies were “discovered” via the Forbes list and continue to qualify. Another company that qualifies as biopharma-enabling might well be Simulations Plus (SLP) but the company falls a little short of the annual revenues minimum.

We expected to lose last year’s #1, Forward Air (FWRD) to “graduation” but the recessionary conditions in transporting “stuff” kept FWRD below the $1 billion maximum. Forward Air had been a resident of the Forbes listing for seven years … so this makes it nine years for this logistics leader.

The top performer from last year’s best small companies was Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) with a total return of 79.7%. Ubiquiti develops high performance networking technology for service providers and enterprises. UBNT is closing the digital divide by building network communication platforms and has 38 million devices worldwide. Ubiquiti just missed qualifying for this year’s list — ranking #41 as the UBNT return forecast is down to 7.9% following the robust performance over the last year.

 

Diagnosis: Ubiquitous

We think a ubiquitous haystack is a path to opportunity and success. We’re reminded that we can’t achieve proper balance unless we’re continuously searching for the next promising well-managed small company. We’re reassured by the presence of several long time favorites on this study list and look forward to discovering and diagnosing at will.

Favorite Screens: Launch Pad 2017

expectingalpha Uncategorized , , , , , , , ,

These Are A Few Of Our Favorite Screens

(30) Launch Pad Candidates (12/9/2016)

As 2016 winds to a close and we start thinking about the Groundhog 2017, it’s time to go shopping for the best opportunities in the coming year. As we recently featured and reminded, it can make sense to peruse the companies with the largest incremental step changes in earnings expectations for the coming year.

Yes, Virginia, we realize that virtually no one can portend stock prices and indices over such a short time frame — but as our contest participants have shown over the last several years, it can make sense to find stocks that look good for the long term that appear to be poised or perhaps about to experience some sort of catalyst. This was the Better Investing premise of featuring a long-term Stock to Study while also giving a nod to a shorter time horizon for the Undervalued feature.

This is also what we do with the weekly updates of the Fave Five and the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio.

The accompanying figure demonstrates what we seek — companies with the biggest boost in expected earnings for 2017 versus 2016. As shown for Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK), their work in a number of key development areas could restore growth and profitability to this venerable pharmaceutical leader.

And if that doesn’t work out, there’s always AB InBev (BUD) …

Screening Criteria

  • 2017 EPS/2016 EPS > +50.0%
  • Quality Ranking > 60 (Excellent or Good Quintiles)

For context, the median year-over-year (2017/2016) change in EPS is +11.8%.

The average 1-year total return forecast (ACE) is currently 8.1%.

Our median long term return forecast (MIPAR) is now 5.0%.

Launch pad screen 20161207

Fave Five: Escape Velocity

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , , , , ,

Fave Five (12/9/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.1%.

Every year we run a stock selection challenge starting on Groundhog Day (February 2) and running for the next twelve months. Individual investors and groups like investment clubs are welcome to participate by choosing 5-20 stocks.

We’ve now got nine annual contests under our belt. We crown an individual and group champion every year.

Escape Velocity

In three of the last four years, the Broad Assets Investment Club of St. Louis has toppled dozens of competing groups — taking home multiple Groundhog stock selection championships.

I’ll let that sink in.

Three of the past four years. Their excess/relative return (annualized) since inception is +28.7%.

Let that sink in, too.

We want some of whatever they’re having. Seriously, we checked the water … asked what they had for breakfast, etc. in an effort to come to grips with the primary driver behind their stunning success and track record. We discovered one potential influence. It seems like Broad Assets latches on to companies that have huge incremental improvements in earnings forecasts for next year versus this year. We detailed our findings in our cover story, Victory By Escape Velocity?

This week’s Fave Five is based on companies with solid long-term outlooks that also have superior earnings forecasts for 2017 versus estimates for 2016. The bracketed column displays the top five year-over-year forecasts, according to analyst consensus estimates. [Source: ACE and finance.yahoo.com]

The median year-over-year (2017/2016) differential for the ~2400 companies we cover is currently 11.8%.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Allergan (AGN)
  • Baidu (BIDU)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • Universal Display (OLED)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (December 9, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +5.8% since inception. 51.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Weekend Warrior Tracking Portfolio: Selling Discipline

There are two primary selling conditions for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio.

  • For the first year after selection, if the excess/relative return (vs. the Wilshire 5000) becomes less than -20%, the position is closed.
  • A position is also closed (usually with a victory lap) when the return forecast (PAR) is less than the median return forecast (MIPAR).

This week, Stifel Financial (SF) and Raymond James (RJF) have both been on a surge, gaining 65% since selection. With return forecasts of 2-4% when the median return forecast is now 5% — both positions were closed. [High Five]

Invest Like Spock

expectingalpha Best Of, Stocks , , , ,

Invest Like Spock

This morning, Forbes featured a column with the comment:

“Invest Like Mr. Spock . Okay, so I’m a trekkie. I like Mr. Spock’s ability to be human, yet make big decisions based on rationality.” — John Wasik

This nudges fond memories of a Round Table discussion by Hugh McManus (February 2011) that covers investing psychology and avoiding ending up on the wrong end of a spear as a happy resident in a Vulcan retirement home.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LScAky5IhjM&t=947s

From “fat” as the “perfect food” to campfires at night, taking turns sleeping, to hunting in packs … to recognizing that investment disruptions are rarely fatal … to maintaining a true long-term perspective — with your Friends.

Analysis Across The Chasm

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,
This excerpt is an example of our weekly update for subscribers where we share observations on the analysis update batch for the week and tackle issues of relevance for long term investors.  Subscribe or launch a test drive.  For more info:  https://expectingalpha.com/about/

This Week at MANIFEST (12/2/2016)

“An hour with a book would have brought to your mind,
The secret that took the whole year to find;
The facts that you learned at enormous expense,
Were all on a library shelf to commence.” — via Ted Brooks and Audels Handbook for Mechanics

“My advice is read everything you can.” — Warren Buffett

This week’s update batch includes a number of cyclicals including some of the leaders from the oil patch. Subscribers and Round Table participants have sometimes wondered about the selection of companies like BP (BP) by Hugh McManus. Like a good book, sometimes a modified or evolving perspective is required to put less traditional selections in context. So far as books go, for this topic we’d urge some consideration of Peter Lynch and the Magellan track record investing in cyclical companies. Hugh has the highest relative/excess return, since inception, for all Round Table participants. As always, it’s not for beginners but the rewards can be outsized…

Analysis Across The Chasm

During our stock studies, we are sometimes confronted with a Kobayashi Maru, a test that seems to defy a solution. The last time we remember seeing this on a fairly widely spread basis was while attempting to do stock studies during the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

The Kobayashi Maru is a training exercise in the Star Trek universe designed to test the character of Starfleet Academy cadets in a no-win scenario. The Kobayashi Maru test was first depicted in the opening scene of the film Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan and also appears in the 2009 film Star Trek. The test’s name is occasionally used among Star Trek fans or those familiar with the series to describe a no-win scenario, a test of one’s character or a solution that involves redefining the problem.

Recessions and large speed bumps wreck SSG-based trend analysis. Ken Kavula and I were faced with challenging studies much more frequently during the Great Recession.

Cyclicals are challenging. Sometimes a 10-year visual analysis isn’t enough to build an image and understanding of long-term growth. We advise beginning investors to avoid companies like this. The price collapses can be catastrophic as economic cycles unfold. But Peter Lynch suggested that significant rewards await experienced investors who can pass the seemingly no-win scenario test. It is in this context that Hugh McManus chooses companies like Bank of America (BAC) … [Yes, Virginia, financial sector stocks are often quite cyclical] … BP (BP) and Conoco Phillips (COP).

Hugh has chosen a number of these companies for the Round Table tracking portfolio. It is worth noting that Hugh has the highest relative return among all participants and contributors. His time horizon is truly massive and he seeks opportunities that are, in Cy’s words, “more temporary than terminal.” He invested in BP (BP) as the leak in the Gulf was dominating the news cycle.

The rhinos (Wall Street analysts and institutions) overreact. Period. In the case of Petroleum (Integrated) companies, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that 2020 actual result more closely match the trend line shown in the accompanying figure. Sometimes, experienced investors simply have to look across the chasm — imagine what it may be like on “on the other side.”

Captain James T. Kirk, as a cadet, was victorious in a No-Win scenario by changing the rules. He reprogrammed the simulation. When faced with a chasm, sometimes you just gotta invest like Captain Kirk.
.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 14. Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Round Table Stocks

  • BP plc (BP)
  • Conoco-Philips (COP)

Best Small Companies

(None)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (12/2/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 4.5% vs. 3.5% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Attrition (reduction in long term forecasts) seems to have abated a bit for this batch of Value Line updates but remember this is a challenging and cyclical minefield of companies (in general) … shop carefully. There are very few widely-followed or Round Table companies on this week’s menu.

Materially Stronger: Joy Global (JOY) 1, Chemours (CC)

Materially Weaker: Southwestern Energy (SWN), Energy Trans Partners (ETP)

Discontinued: Questar (STR), Infoblox (BLOX), AMN Healthcare (AHS), Rackspace (RAX), Monster Worldwide (MWW)

1 Joy Global (JOY) to be acquired by Komatsu in mid-2017.

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 3.5%, down from 4.3% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (12/2/2016)

The Long & Short. (December 2, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

We’ve added a Saturday morning Open House session (webcast) to the schedule.

Date: Saturday, December 03 · 10:00 AM – 11:59 AM EST
Location: Online

It’s another Saturday morning as we explore what’s on the mind of our fellow long-term investors. This open house format webcast invites you to participate. We’ll share some thoughts on stocks and topics and issues but mostly we’d like to hear from you.

Register: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2012622328797380610

Discovery Club

“Dump your hedge funds and explore their small-cap stock picks.”

Small cap is not necessarily small (faster-growing) companies but in general, we like the idea of a nice blend. So yes, we’re interested in hunting down some actionable ideas among the most successful investors on our radar screen — seeking companies that aren’t on too many radar screens, yet. The discovery of smaller, promising and faster-growing companies has always been one of our favorite (and rewarding) activities. In that spirit, we’re expanding our efforts in this realm, seeking smaller, less discovered companies and add them to our coverage. We will continue to scour our Best Small Company Funds with leaders like Brown Small Company.

This Week’s Sources and Suggestions

  • Value Line Investment Survey: Small and Mid-Cap Edition
  • Conestoga Small Cap Investors (CCASX)
  • Goldman Sachs

Coverage Initiated/Restored: Catalent (CTLT), MGP Ingredients (MGPI), Repligen (RGEN), WageWorks (WAGE), Sotheby’s (BID)

Market Barometers (Continued)

As Jeff Traeger pointed out:

Notable change in Value Line’s asset allocation model as of 11/21/16. Common stock allocation moved down from 65% – 75% to 60% – 70%. This is not an every day occurrence and so is worthy of note. The Value Line commentary indicates that the market is still sound but that the higher price levels signals investor caution. The last change in allocation was an upward move on 2/22/16.

Vl s o 20161121

Reminder: We believe elevated safety measures (more emphasis on quality, for some higher percentages of cash equivalents) is merited when the blue long-term trend line crosses through 0.0.

ushl 20161201

 

Beyond Cyber Monday … Cyber December

Discover the successful investing approach used by hundreds of thousands of investors over the last several decades. By focusing on company quality, return forecast and growth forecasts — we design and manage portfolios that are built to beat the market.

Create an account at www.manifestinvesting.com for ONLY $79/year — and send an email to manifest@manifestinvesting.com for a 2-for-1 Cyber December SPECIAL. Offer valid  until December 31. You MUST send an email to qualify for the subscription exte

Introductory pricing is only available to households or customers at a business address who have not been subscribers to Manifest Investing within the last 180 days. If you respond to this offer but do not qualify for introductory pricing, we reserve the right to reject your order or prorate your subscription term to reflect current subscriber pricing. This offer may be withdrawn at any time.

Fave Five (12/2/2016)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , , ,

Fave Five (12/2/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.1%.

We’re back after a Turkey hiatus and proceeding with the second year of this weekly feature and resultant tracking portfolio. This week’s stocks represent some leaders with a solid long term outlook, a couple that have clearly found a speed bump … but all of them are generally regarded as “over sold” and many of them have been appearing on screening results.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Allergan (AGN)
  • Cerner (CERN)
  • Steris (STE)
  • Synaptics (SYNA)
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (December 2, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +4.5% since inception. 51.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Round Table (November 2016)

expectingalpha Investing, Stocks , , , , , , , ,

November Round Table

Our Round Table, a monthly session featuring our favorite stock ideas right now in true round table fashion, was held November 29.

Stocks Discussed

  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • Mercadolibre (MELI)

The stocks selected for this program over the last six years have collectively beaten the Wilshire 5000. The excess return (annualized) has been ranging from 2-3%. We seek actionable opportunities to study and pursue.

The agenda will also include a continuation of our selling decision concept based on relative return.

The round table knights include small company champion and Mid-Michigan Director Ken Kavula; Cy (MythBuster) Lynch; pharmaceutical scientist Hugh McManus; and Manifest Investing’s Mark Robertson who will analyze their favorite stocks. Guest damsels have included Anne Manning, Susan Maciolek and Kim Butcher. Guest knights who have jousted include Nicholas Stratigos, Herb Lemcool and Matt Spielman.

The audience selected CVS Health (CVS).

Positions closed/sold: Knight Transportation (KNX), Landauer (LDR), PRA Group (PRAA), US Physical Therapy (USPH)

The tracking portfolio has been updated at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/round-table

Rt poll 20161129