Fave Five (4/29/2016)

Fave Five (4/29/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Methods (AIRM)
  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Alphabet/Google (GOOG)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.3%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.4% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 29, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. *1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +15.2% since inception. 59.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (4/15/2016)

Fave Five (4/15/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Methods (AIRM)
  • Inteliquent (IQNT)
  • Maximus (MMS)
  • Perrigo (PRGO)
  • Steris (STE)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.2%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.6% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 15, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr Rhino Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase or Morgan Stanley.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +20.2% since inception. 53.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Gone Gold: PRIMECAP Growth (POAGX)

It’s been nearly five years since Morningstar launched the medalist designations for mutual funds. This month, we cull the gold medal funds that also have a 5-star rating seeking long-term leaders.

It’s been nearly five years since Morningstar launched the medalist designations for mutual funds. The intent is to maintain a long term perspective and identify top tier investment opportunities. Morningstar Medalists are funds that have been assigned a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Bronze, Silver, or Gold, meaning that those are the funds that we think are likely to outperform their category peer groups and appropriate benchmarks on a risk-adjusted basis over market cycles of at least five years. This month, we cull the gold medal funds that also have a 5-star rating seeking long-term leaders, candidates for fund investors and as always, potential sources of actionable and investable stock opportunities.

PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth (POAGX): Long-Term Performance. This actively managed fund has beaten the market by 4.5% (percentage points) over the trailing 10 years. The fund has achieved an absolute total return (annualized) of 11.4% during a period when the Wilshire 5000 advanced 6.9%. Although closed to new investors, as always, this type of outperformance may provide some study candidates. The fund appears to select carefully and has very low turnover.

Winner: PRIMECAP Agg Growth (POAGX)

The PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth Fund has beaten the total stock market benchmark (Wilshire 5000) by +4.5% annualized over the trailing ten years. The absolute return has been 11.4% — clearly top tier performance as the fund has beaten the benchmark in 9-of-the-last-11 years.

Portfolio turnover is 15%. It doesn’t get much lower than that for an equity fund specializing in smaller companies and deeper value situations. The fund managers act with conviction after considerable diligence that attempts to identify companies with differentiated potential that exceeds Wall Street expectations.

The expense ratio is 0.62%, also an attractively low burden for fund investors and compares well to similar funds. But the fund is closed to new investors at the present — so it becomes a proving ground and source of stock study ideas because the fund managers are excruciatingly selective and any recent additions (or sales) from the portfolio is probably worth a closer look and further study.

$100 invested on 12/31/2004 had blossomed to $360.40 on 12/31/2015. For comparison, $100 invested in a Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) was worth $217.10 on 12/31/2015. This is a rather dramatic reminder of the power of a 3-5% relative return over a period as short as ten years.

The fund’s largest holdings include: Abiomed (ABMD), Qiagen (QGEN), Sony (SNE), Seattle Genetics (SGEN), Royal Caribbean Cruiselines (RCL) and Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR). But more importantly, added during the 12/31/2015 update were new positions in Ruckus Wireless (RKUS), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and Alphabet/Google (GOOG). Ruckus and HPE have advanced fairly dramatically but GOOG is still relatively near the 4Q2015 price levels. We’ll watch the 3Q 2016 update for potential ideas.

MANIFEST 40 (3/31/2016)

Your Most Widely-Followed Stocks: An Update

Our MANIFEST 40 is a celebration of collective excellence in stock selection, strategy and disciplined patience.

The 40 stocks are something of a barometer because we know that these community favorites are not simply followed … most of them are also widely owned, with considerable diligence and vigilance.

MANIFEST 40 (March 2016). Performance Results. These are the most widely followed stocks by Manifest Investing subscribers. Current leader Apple (AAPL) was added on 9/24/2009 and steadily climbed the ranks while generating a relative return of +20.3% (annualized) since then. Figures in parentheses are the ranking back in December 2015.

The rate of return is 9.0% since inception (9/30/2005). Bottom line? On an annualized basis, your community favorites have beaten the Wilshire 5000 by +3.6 percentage points — a relative, or excess, return that probably portends outsized success with our actual portfolios.

Quality (90) is solid and the overall return forecast (8.9%) is positioned to outperform the Wilshire 5000. At an average sales growth forecast of 6.8%, we’d to see some faster-growing companies adopted by our community.

Capturing Attention: Chargers

Gilead Sciences (GILD) moved from #25 to #22 as most of the list remained rather steady. Visa (V) is a new addition at #40. The results of $100 positions investing in any of the Top 40 companies can be viewed at any time via the public dashboard on the home page.

“We have always believed that the collective decisions made by our community of long-term investors are worth huddling over … a place where ideas are born.”

Fave Five (4/8/2016)

The tracking portfolio has an excess return of +20.4% since inception and 60% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000.

Fave Five (4/8/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Raymond James (RJF)
  • Shire PLC (SHPG)
  • Stifel Financial (SF)
  • United Therapeutics (UTHR)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.3%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 7.4% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 8, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr Rhino Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase or Morgan Stanley.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +20.4% since inception. 60.0% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (4/1/2016)

Fave Five (4/1/2016)

No fooling!

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Inteliquent (IQNT)
  • United Therapeutics (UTHR)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 13.3%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.9% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +5.1% since inception. 67.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors