Month: November 2015

Round Table (November 2015)

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Round Table (November 2015)

What: Round Table Discussion of Favorite Stock Study Ideas

When: Monday, November 30 at 8:30 PM ET

Where: Online. Register via https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5522647165700089346

Who: Kim Butcher, Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson

Why: Because we like to share ideas for successful investing. The selections made by Round Table participants have beaten the market over the last five years with a relative return of approximately +3.0%

Stocks Likely To Be Featured

  • Maximus (MMS)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO)
  • PayPal (PYPL)
  • Proto Labs (PRLB)
  • TBD

The session (webcast) is FREE. Please invite your friends and family to attend.

If you’d like to be added to an email reminder list for this and all future (monthly) Round Tables, send a request to nkavula1@comcast.net

Here’s an Ivory Soap Screen snapshot (MANIFEST Rank > 99.44) for some Round Table candidates.

Ivory screen 20151127

I don’t know if Ken Kavula will be using the Mid-Michigan Market Beaters for some shopping ideas — but he should.

Here’s the tracking dashboard of their consensus selections for 2016.

Mid mich market beaters dash 20151130

Our Best One-Hit Wonders

It’s interesting that 29-of-50 One-Hit Wonders have positive relative returns. These companies represent single selections made over the course of the last 5 1/2 years. The choice could have been made by one of the Round Table knights, a guest damsel or guest knight. What is also true about these selections is they did not receive a “seconding” audience vote at the time of presentation.

Rt one hit wonders best 20151130

Our Worst One-Hit Wonders

All I can say for most of these (attributed to Robertson) is that “it’s early.” Only a couple of them are closed (sold) positions — so there’s plenty of work-in-progress here.

Rt one hit wonders worst 20151130a

 

Fave Five (11/27/2015)

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Fave Five

Here are five stocks that could be studied going into the weekend. They essentially represent a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

Context: The average 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) is approximately 23%.

Weekend Warriors

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave five 20151127

Cyber Monday Sale @ Manifest

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Cyber Monday Sale!

Black Friday is more than just another day … our special extends through Cyber Monday.

Discover the successful investing approach used by hundreds of thousands of investors over the last several decades. By focusing on company quality, return forecast and growth forecasts — we design and manage portfolios that are built to beat the market.

Create an account at www.manifestinvesting.com for ONLY $49/year — and save $30 off the regular subscription until December 1.

Manifest Investing is one of the few places where you can screen for stocks while remaining focused on what really matters: (1) the long-term return forecast and (2) quality. Our powerful screening tools continuously deliver actionable ideas.

Discover how dashboards can enhance your portfolio design and management experience.

We’re thankful for the gains from companies like Apple (AAPL), up +349% (28.4% annualized) since it was added to our 40 most widely-followed stocks back in September 2009. Other companies, like Cognizant Technology (CTSH), FactSet Reseach (FDS) and Walgreen (WBA) have combined to deliver exceptional market-beating performance. We are grateful for contributions from other companies like Bio-Reference Labs (BRLI) and IPC Hospitalist (IPCM) — two companies that were acquired during 2015 rewarding our long-term investors.

The discovery of promising, smaller, faster-growing companies is a core guiding principle. You can experience a recent demonstration of highlighting study candidates at Best Small Companies . This feature includes a public dashboard that can be sorted to identify (from highest to lowest projected annual return) purchase candidates.

When we think of Black Friday, we think of positive relative returns … the black ink statistics that underscore market-beating performance by so many of our portfolios, demonstrations and club/individual portfolios. The Round Table tracking portfolio has topped the market by 3.5 percentage points over the last five years. Our monthly Solomon Select stock features have collectively beaten the market and the Tin Cup demonstration portfolio got “back to even” with this perpetually fully-invested collection of stocks and continues to soar. Tin Cup makes the maximum allowable deposit into a demonstration 401(k) … passed $1,000,000 in 17 years and already has $2,000,000 in the cross hairs.

Create An Account. Explore.

1. Start your account and launch a FREE, fully functional 30-day test drive. Explore features like the Stock Search, Dashboards and Sandboxes … and our weekly features that highlight threats and opportunities for stock watchers and shareholders. The weekly features present a number of actionable stock study ideas.

2. If you’re in a club or have friends and family that you’d like to share Manifest Investing with, share the message and we’d be happy to give them a FREE test drive also. Let us know via manifest@manifestinvesting.com(All we need is name, email address and zip code to establish an account.)

3. Place your renewal order before December 1 and the price will be $49/year. The price after the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping frenzy will return to $79/year.

Discover Manifest Investing today for $49/year … nearly a 40% discount to the regular subscription price.

For clubs or groups with more than eight partners, contact us (manifest@manifestinvesting.com) for a great personalized Black Friday offer.

Create your account today, and then SUBSCRIBE for one or two years using coupon code FRIDAY and save $30.

Best wishes and Better Investing!

 

Introductory pricing is only available to households or customers at a business address who have not been subscribers to Manifest Investing within the last 180 days. If you respond to this offer but do not qualify for introductory pricing, we reserve the right to reject your order or prorate your subscription term to reflect current subscriber pricing. This offer may be withdrawn at any time.

Black Friday at the Forum

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Black Friday: LIVE at the Forum

Avoid the Madness of Crowds and the arm bar take downs while jostling for those three dirt cheap (and soon to be out-of-stock) LCD displays and share some time with your investing friends instead.

We’ll “man” this folder continuously through the day — with a break for a Murder Mystery with the family at 1 PM ET — starting at 8 AM ET. It’ll be like “Open Microphone, Open Keyboard” but at a slower pace.

  • What’s On Your Mind?
  • What topic would you like to explore? Need some link references?
  • Is there a stock that we should we studying collectively?
  • Did you find the 50 Best Small Companies helpful? Did you study/buy any of them?

The format will be “almost live.” You may either post your questions in this folder or email topics/questions to manifest@manifestinvesting.com and we’ll post answers, links, follow up questions right here on the Forum.

Forum access is a benefit of subscribing to http://www.manifestinvesting.com.  You may create a trial account and a 30-day FREE test drive to participate in this session.

You may also tweet questions and topic requests to: @manifestinvest “Follow me!”

Happy Thanksgiving!

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This Week at MANIFEST (11/27/2015)

From All of Us to All of You, Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody!

Thanksgiving dinners take eighteen hours to prepare. They are consumed in twelve minutes. Half-times take twelve minutes. This is not coincidence. — Erma Bombeck

I can’t believe that I watched a Charlie Brown/Peanuts Thanksgiving for the first time last night. I’m not sure how that escaped me because a Charlie Brown Christmas is an annual event … and I’ve been known to spend some time in the Pumpkin Patch over the years.

It did serve as a reminder of the arduous voyage made by the Pilgrims across the Atlantic. In cramped quarters, the trip took three months on the Mayflower … and Charles Schultz laid out the cast in terms of crew, Pilgrims and “Strangers.” The term stranger was applied to those were “along for the ride” but not affiliated with the Pilgrim plight nor quest. Until recently, guests to the English Parliament were still referred to as strangers and their seating area known as the Stranger Gallery.

In our community, we celebrate those who invest with a true long-term perspective and frankly, everybody else seems a little strange. (Grin) As David Gardner pointed out recently, the phrase “long-term investing” is a tautology. It’s a mosh of redundancy because by definition, investing is long term.

Ken Kavula and I spent Monday night with another accomplished investment club of 26 years or more (and last Saturday with a couple of 55-year-old clubs) and we marvel at how most clubs welcome Strangers — those who seek the rewards and refuge from the storm … and they do “investing” with friends.

The journey is arduous and although we pay attention to short term influences on trends, we pay more attention to the long-term perspective and do all that we can do bolster the patience and discipline of the Pilgrims around us. As the holiday season approaches, and we all consume too much food on Thursday, we’re reminded that the survivors of the Atlantic crossing were largely children — steeped in optimism and certainly blessed with the most formidable long term expectations. Plymouth would be significantly influenced by the children. A foundation of optimism and sharing erupts when we invest like children.

And for that, we’re thankful. Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody!

Companies of Interest: Value Line

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.1% — pretty much in line with the 5.6% for the Value Line 1700.

Materially Stronger: Southwest Airlines (LUV), Restaurant Brands (QSR), Cintas (CTAS)

Materially Weaker: Frontline (FRO), WestJet Airlines (WJA-TO), Bristow Group (BRS), Copa Holdings (CPA), U.S. Ecology (ECOL), Clean Harbors (CLH), Huron Consulting Group (HURN)

Discontinued: ConWay (CNW)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.6%, unchanged from last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (11/27/2015)

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) & Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
  • Fiesta Restaurants (FRGI) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
  • Darden Restaurants (DRI) & Union Pacific (UNP) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
  • Huron Consulting Group (HURN) — Lowest P/FV (S&P)
  • Golar LNG (GLNG) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
  • Copa Holdings (CPA) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
  • Ryder System ( R ) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)

Note: The price targets from Goldman Sachs (GS) are from public releases and represent a partial sample. The price target is logged as of the most recent public analyst report. Although every effort is made to keep this information as current as possible, some of the ratings may not reflect more recent research and updates. Some of the older Goldman Sachs estimates (>6-9 months) have been adjusted using more recent price targets from Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley etc.

 

Black Friday: LIVE at the Forum

Avoid the Madness of Crowds and the arm bar take downs while jostling for those three dirt cheap (and soon to be out-of-stock) LCD displays and share some time with your investing friends instead.

Note: For Manifest Investing subscribers and trial participants. You can start a 30-day FREE trial by creating an account at http://www.manifestinvesting.com

We’ll “man” this folder continuously through the day — with a break for a Murder Mystery with the family at 1 PM ET — starting at 8 AM ET. It’ll be like “Open Microphone, Open Keyboard” but at a slower pace.

  • What’s On Your Mind?
  • What topic would you like to explore? Need some link references?
  • Is there a stock that we should we studying collectively?
  • Did you find the 50 Best Small Companies helpful? Did you study/buy any of them?

The format will be “almost live.” You may either post your questions in this folder or email topics/questions to manifest@manifestinvesting.com and we’ll post answers, links, follow up questions right here on the Forum.

You may also tweet questions and topic requests to: @manifestinvest “Follow me!”

Black Friday Event: Live At The Forum November 27, 2015 at 8 AM ET

Bring your questions and topics to the Forum on Black Friday. Any thoughts on the Best Small Companies or any stocks of interest that we should collectively be taking a look at? Click in and let us know what’s on your mind.  Note: For Manifest Investing subscribers and trial participants. You can start a 30-day FREE trial by creating an account at http://www.manifestinvesting.com

November Round Table November 30, 2015 at 8:30 PM ET ONLINE

Stocks likely to be discussed: TBD

Registration: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5522647165700089346

Mark your calendar and save the date for our monthly discussion of actionable stock ideas.

If you have a stock or topic for discussion, please let us know.

Thanksgiving 2010: Of Heroes & Harvests

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From five years ago — still a worthy celebration of Promises. Kept.

Expecting Alpha

Gerri Willis of Fox Business News asked about the Beardstown Ladies during an interview this week.  Yes, they’re still in existence and prospering. They’ve added new partners. The media still mangles the facts about that mistake.  The mistake was largely Disney’s — a federal judge agrees with me.  The Ladies committed a human error.  Their performance was better than is perpetually broadcasted.  You can ask Price-Waterhouse about that.  But more importantly, they continue to grow, explore and reach out to remove mystery and fear from investing — enabling a new generation to discover successful long-term investing.  We shared some details in this message from Thanksgiving 2010 …

Thanksgiving is a time for reflection, gratitude and hope and in this case, a rekindling of a very special spirit nestled in the cornfields of Illinois …

Of Heroes and Harvests …

It was a beautiful autumn day in the heartland. I attended…

View original post 1,102 more words

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

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This is an excerpt/example of one of our company reports and/or monthly stock selection feature at http://www.manifestinvesting.com.  For more information or to request a FREE 90-day test drive of the long-term investing tools and resources, email: manifest@manifestinvesting.com

Ken Kavula stole the show during our recent Round Table with his nomination of SWKS, a specialty semiconductor company.

The audience vote at the August Round Table was a landslide. The kind of landslide that takes no prisoners. Despite the presentation of a couple of worthy and formidable nominees, Ken Kavula stole the show with his nomination of Skywork Solutions (SWKS) … a specialty semiconductor company that has beaten a world class path into the Internet of Things.

Our monthly Round Table generally takes place on a Tuesday evening near the end of every month. We sometimes switch the session to a Saturday morning for some variety or to avoid Hugh’s robust travel schedule. The webcasts are FREE and you’re welcome to invite friends, family or any should-be long-term investor that you know. A handful of stocks are presented complete with analysis and a nudge toward favorite resources for further study, reinforcement and verification. We archive almost all of the sessions on the MANIFEST Forum. You can also use YouTube to track down recorded sessions and/or to share them with your fellow long-term investors. Here is a link to August Round Table starting at the SWKS segment.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Business Model Analysis. Earnings “went positive” and stayed positive fpr Skyworks back in 2005. They’ve not looked back, continuing to develop and market scores of analog and mixed signal semiconductors worldwide. Growth appears to be capable of sustaining double digits and profitability has steadily strengthened. Depending on your outlook for these key characteristics, the return forecast is 10-15%.

Growth, Profitability, Valuation

The growth rate forecast (based on 2014-2019) is 14.7%. Value Line is using 17.5% for their 3-5 year forecast. Morningstar expects 8% growth over the next five years. Based on the visual analysis of the business model, 12-15% seems feasible.

2014 delivered a net margin of 20.0%. Value Line has an average net margin forecast of 26.8% for 2015, 2016 and 2019. This is probably the most influential assumption about the company and analysis. Since emerging and sustaining profitability less than ten years ago, net margin has advanced and is probably headed for a plateau. Based on industry and inherent company characteristics, what level of profitability do you believe is achievable and sustainable? Your answer will dictate whether this stock is in a “buy zone.”

Value Line is using 20x for the 3-5 year projection. The analyst consensus is a little more optimistic, checking in at 25×. At $83, the return forecast is approximately 15%. Phone home.

Fave Five for Friday (11/20/2015)

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Fave Five

Here are five stocks that could be studied going into the weekend. They essentially represent a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

Context: The average 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) is approximately 24%.

Five fave ace 20151120

Successful Stock Selection

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This Week at MANIFEST (11/20/2015)

Success is a journey, not a destination. — Anonymous

“There are no secrets to success. It is a result of preparation, hard work … and learning from failure.” — Colin Powell

We’re better when we learn together. Success is better when experienced with your friends (and family.)

The contestants in this year’s NAIC Mid-Michigan chapter’s stock selection challenge faced the same difficult market as everybody else. The difference is that half of the entries scrapped and clawed to outperform the market over the trailing twelve months. And their consensus selections from one year ago BEAT THE MARKET for the 12th time in 13 years.

Taking home the gold for 2014-2015 was the FEMME$ Investment Club of Flint, Michigan. Their winning selections are shown here:

Consensus Favorites for 2015-2016

Yes, it’s a game. But it bears repeating. The consensus selections from this group of like-minded investors has beaten the S&P 500 in 12 of the last 13 years. Those selections — and we’d argue, formidable shopping list — are shown in the following dashboard.

https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/mid-mich-your-favorites-2015-2016

Hot Links & Fractured Fairy Tales

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Hot Links & Fractured Fairy Tales

I’m often asked about the utility of Twitter and similar “newsfeed” type services. I have to admit that I was extremely skeptical about 140 character blasts and an endless stream back when I first started exploring but I rapidly discovered that Twitter can be a path to discovering and sharing information.

Favorite “Follows” by @ManifestInvest

At Twitter you “follow” people that you’d like to hear from. For me, this includes a number of friends, and it also includes investing-related thought leaders and information providers. I also subscribe to (follow) sources like the various Fed research departments (Minneapolis & St. Louis rock) and companies that I follow. Some of my favorites:

  • @ritholtz — http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
  • @eddyelfenbein — http://www.crossingwallstreet.com
  • @StovallSPCAPIQ — Sam Stovall (Standard & Poor’s)
  • @BobBrinker
  • @SelenaMaranjian — writer for www.fool.com (also Brothers Gardner via @TomGardnerFool & @DavidGFool)
  • @lecreative — Amy Buttell, colleague and Better Investing alum, writes on “all things financial.”
  • @TMFHousel — not just another Fool
  • @NateSilver538
  • @ReformedBroker — Joshua Brown

As an example, let’s take a look at a recent reading list shared by Josh. I generally find 2-3 things to scan whether it’s Eddy, Barry or Josh laying out the smorgasbord.

Here’s the link: http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/11/17/hot-links-fairy-tales/

What I’m reading this morning:

  • US dollar screams to a 7 year high (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks: Top 10 High-Conviction and New-Money Purchases (Morningstar)
  • Soros lightens up his bet against the S&P 500 (MoneyBeat)
    …and he joins Icahn in a bet on PayPal (Business Insider) — [… one for Kim Butcher and Round Table followers]
  • Alphabet, Amazon Lead A.I. Charge as Machines Take Over, Says UBS (Barron’s)
  • CEO of Alerian Index admits that MLPs are sensitive to oil prices. So much for the “toll collector” fairy tale (ETF.com)
  • Investment banks’ revenue set to decline again in 2015 (Reuters) — probably explains down draft in stock prices of asset managers
  • Home Depot continues to crush it. Another flawless quarter. (Business Insider)
  • Cliff Asness: Good investing is not about genius, it’s about fortitude (Business Insider)
  • Retailers hate those new credit card chips (New York Times)
  • Children born today will most likely live on average to their late 80’s (Upshot) — … one of our favorite themes