Month: January 2017

These Are A Few Of Our Favorite Screens

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January Round Table

Our Round Table, a monthly session featuring our favorite stock ideas right now in true round table fashion will be held on Tuesday. January 31 at 8 PM ET.

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/207-round-table-january-2017

On the eve of Groundhog Day Eve, we’ll return to a tradition of visiting and reviewing a Few of Our Favorite Screens.

Stocks Likely To Be Discussed

  • Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR)
  • MEDNAX (MD)
  • NIC (EGOV)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

These Are A Few Of Our Favorite Screens

The stocks selected for this program over the last six years have collectively beaten the Wilshire 5000. We seek actionable opportunities to study and pursue.

The round table knights include small company champion and Mid-Michigan Director Ken Kavula; Cy (MythBuster) Lynch; pharmaceutical scientist Hugh McManus; and Manifest Investing’s Mark Robertson who will analyze their favorite stocks. Guest damsels have included Anne Manning, Susan Maciolek and Kim Butcher. Guest knights who have jousted include Nicholas Stratigos, Herb Lemcool and Matt Spielman

Ivory Soap Screen

We feature this one during most Round Tables. It’s still Mark’s favorite as it focuses screening targets on the most important characteristics — a combination of quality and return forecast — seeking the best companies at the best prices. As shown, enter 99.44 as the minimum Manifest Investing rank and we deliver a short list of high potential stock studies.

Rt ivory soap 20170130

Cy’s Strong Workhorse Screen

This multi-purpose screen accomplishes several things, including an emphasis on that middle (medium-sized) company portion of your portfolios that supports size diversification. As he often reminds us, Cy prefers companies with high quality (excellent or greater than 80) AND high financial strength (A+ or greater than 80 or 90). In this case, he’s also moderated the return forecast target a bit (MIPAR +4.5%, as shown) in order to identify some solid returns from some companies in the steady growth segment (7-12% growth) that some of us might refer to as the “workhorse zone.”

Rt workhorses 20170130

Kurt’s Sweet Spot & High Quality Screen

This one might be easiest — and among the more effective — of all. Kurt provides a continuously running screening result as one of our menu items. Click on Research > Companies and you get a current listing of potentially compelling studies.

Rt sweet spot quality 20170130

(Broad Assets) Launch Pad Concept Screen

This approach was explored in our Escape Velocity cover story (May 2014) where we attempted to explain some of the success of our 3-time group champions, Broad Assets of St. Louis. Part of the success was attributed to stocks like Lannett (LCI) which delivered massive returns, apparently operating near the point in a companies life cycle where EPS first break through into positive numbers and early stage growth can be powerful.

So three elements are probably important:

  • Double digit growth — to isolate newer, promising companies with higher growth expectations.
  • Exorbitant Slope on the EPS graphic. We screened for 2017 EPS vs. 2016 EPS here. The average is 11.4%. (FYI)
  • Price Explosion Potential — The 1-year total return via ACE forecasts. The median forecast is 7.9%.

This could be a source of “different” ideas and would be considered part of a speculative component, by many.

Rt launch pad 20170130

Hugh’s 52-Week Low Proximity Screen

You can read more about this approach here and here.

Hugh scans a relatively short list of vetted companies and pounces on them when they get within 20% of 52-week lows — so long as their good/excellent characteristics persist.

Rt hugh ann low 20170130

Ken’s Quality Small Companies

Ken Kavula reminds us that we don’t have to compromise on quality when it comes to maintaining the small company component. This dashboard, inspired by the Forbes Best Small Companies, and published by Manifest Investing back around Halloween 2016 continues to flag opportunities. It has been sorted by Quality (Descending) and a number of sweet spot (and Speculative) opportunities are displayed.

Rt small companies 20170130

Global Treasures

From January:

During his webcast on 1/10/2017, DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach suggested a search for equity opportunities in international baskets/markets and specifically called out India and Japan’s NIKKEI as potential targets.

We’ve been noticing a certain trend, alongside Mr. Gundlach, in recent weeks as the stocks featured in our Fave Five have been “dominated” by non-U.S. companies. Six of the last nine new editions to our Fave Five tracking portfolio (since 11/11/2016) have been ex-U.S. stocks.

IShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) offers broad, market-cap-weighted exposure to large- and mid-cap stocks across 21 developed markets outside the United States and Canada. Holdings include Nestle (NSRGY), Roche (RHHBY), Novartis (NVS), Toyota (TMC), Siemens (SIEGY), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Bayer (BAYRY). As the accompanying chart shows, this index (orange area) peaked 10 years and has experienced its own lost decade since the Great Recession.

If you can discover one of these with strengthening fundamentals and you believe that the global recession will abate eventually, there could be considerable opportunity here.

S&P “Strong Buy” (5-Star) Long & Short

This screen is limited to S&P 5-Star qualifiers and is sorted by price-to-fair value (P/FV) ascending. The 1-year total return is included for a look at short term expectations.

Rt sp 5star screen 20170131

Fave Five (1/27/2017)

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Fave Five (1/27/2017)

Our Fave Five generally represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The median 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

This week we spend a few moments with John Kimmel of Wichita, Kansas. John is currently the front runner in the individual category with a +67% return — as a co-conspirator with his Long-Term Investment Club colleagues — and in the institutional category for his Brookfield Digest newsletter.

This domination of the Groundhog field is unprecedented.

In his words: I think biotech should recover further into the year if President Trump and Congress are not too unfavorable. Maybe the worst is priced in. Haven’t bought Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) or Under Armour (UAA) but the numbers look good enough I want to get my clubs to study for possible purchase. My “bench” which I own are Air Lease (AL), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), FaceBook (FB), LKQ Corp. (LKQ), & Opko Health (OPK). [John’s club was one of the clubs that shared the “light” when it came to Bio-Reference Labs and decided to hold OPK after the transaction.] Another six are speculative, some of which have the possibility of maybe pulling off an FCX. One can hope.

As a reminder of what FCX has done over the last year:

Yes, Virginia, that’s a 250% gain. John and his colleagues selected different portfolios for all three categories in this year’s contest and every single selection has positive gains with the vast majority beating the market.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 27, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +4.4% since inception. 48.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (1/20/2017)

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Fave Five (1/20/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.7%.

This week we place a little extra emphasis on companies with a strong long-term outlook from S&P. (See S&P Price-to-Fair Value, P/FV)

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Affiliated Managers (AMG)
  • LKQ Corp (LKQ)
  • Michael Kors (KORS)
  • Mylan Labs (MYL)
  • Perrigo (PRGO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 20, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.0% since inception. 46.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (1/13/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , , ,

Fave Five (1/13/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.0%.

This week we take a slight departure to pay homage to remarks made by Jeff Gundlach during the DoubleLine “Just Markets” webcast on Tuesday. Specifically, the macro observations included a nudge to consider equities in places like India and Japan, suggesting that U.S./Canada valuations might be getting a little steep.

Turning attention to the universe of stocks outside the U.S. & Canada, we find another “Lost Decade.” The stocks in the Morgan Stanley iShares MSCI EAFE exchange traded fund (EFA) have delivered a -0.6% return ANNUALIZED since 2007 while the Wilshire 5000 checks in at 7.3%. So we went searching for the highest ranked stocks that call an address “home” outside either Canada or the United States.

We granted Stella-Jones (SJ-TO) an exception in honor of Jeremy Grantham’s honorary timber class.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Baidu (BIDU)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • MercadoLibre (MELI)
  • Stella-Jones (SJ-TO)
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 13, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.6% since inception. 45.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (1/6/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (1/6/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Cerner (CERN)
  • LKQ Corp (LKQ)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 6, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.4% since inception. 43.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five