$MLNX

Festivus Five (12/23/2016)

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Festivus Five (12/23/2016)

December 23. Happy Festivus! Festivus is both a parody and a secular holiday celebrated on December 23 that serves as an alternative to participating in the pressures and commercialism of the Christmas season. Originally a family tradition of Seinfield scriptwriter Dan O’Keefe, Festivus entered popular culture after it was made the focus of the 1997 episode “The Strike”. The non-commercial holiday’s celebration, as it was shown on Seinfeld, occurs on December 23 and includes a Festivus dinner, an unadorned aluminum Festivus pole, practices such as the “Airing of Grievances” and “Feats of Strength”, and the labeling of easily explainable events as “Festivus miracles”.

This week’s stock study selections are “a Festivus for the rest of us!”

The primary driver for the screening criteria was the 1-year total return (via analyst consensus estimates) but the field was limited to companies with a Manifest Investing rank of 90 and above (based on long-term return forecast and quality ranking).

For context, the average 1-year ACE total return forecast is currently 8.0% for the approximately 2400 companies in our coverage.

So we’re looking for that 1-year miracle … as a case in point, the analyst consensus for Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) has a 1-year total return forecast of 78.6% based on an expected price of $18 and a 4.7% yield. The problem is that the ACE committee of analysts is N/A.

The Fave Five This Week: Festivus Special

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five (Festivus Special Edition)

Festivus SPECIAL: The Long & Short. (December 23, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.7% since inception. 46.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Favorite Screens: Launch Pad 2017

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These Are A Few Of Our Favorite Screens

(30) Launch Pad Candidates (12/9/2016)

As 2016 winds to a close and we start thinking about the Groundhog 2017, it’s time to go shopping for the best opportunities in the coming year. As we recently featured and reminded, it can make sense to peruse the companies with the largest incremental step changes in earnings expectations for the coming year.

Yes, Virginia, we realize that virtually no one can portend stock prices and indices over such a short time frame — but as our contest participants have shown over the last several years, it can make sense to find stocks that look good for the long term that appear to be poised or perhaps about to experience some sort of catalyst. This was the Better Investing premise of featuring a long-term Stock to Study while also giving a nod to a shorter time horizon for the Undervalued feature.

This is also what we do with the weekly updates of the Fave Five and the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio.

The accompanying figure demonstrates what we seek — companies with the biggest boost in expected earnings for 2017 versus 2016. As shown for Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK), their work in a number of key development areas could restore growth and profitability to this venerable pharmaceutical leader.

And if that doesn’t work out, there’s always AB InBev (BUD) …

Screening Criteria

  • 2017 EPS/2016 EPS > +50.0%
  • Quality Ranking > 60 (Excellent or Good Quintiles)

For context, the median year-over-year (2017/2016) change in EPS is +11.8%.

The average 1-year total return forecast (ACE) is currently 8.1%.

Our median long term return forecast (MIPAR) is now 5.0%.

Launch pad screen 20161207

Fave Five (7/29/2016)

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Fave Five (7/29/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Air Lease (AL)
  • Alliance Holdings* (AHGP)
  • Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)
  • Simulations Plus (SLP)

Context: The average 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 16.1%. The median 5-year return forecast for $VLE is 6.8% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (July 29, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +1.5% since inception. 44.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (5/13/2016)

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Fave Five (5/13/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Gentherm (THRM)
  • Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • Under Armor (UA)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.5%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.7% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short.(May 13, 2016)Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey.Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.comS&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +0.8% since inception. 54.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Hain Celestial (HAIN) was “sold” from the tracking portfolio.

HAIN had been added on 12/28/2015 at $41.23.

The sale on 5/12/2016 at $48.06 represents a total return of 16.6% and a relative return of +16.3%.