Fave Five (1/6/2017)

Fave Five (1/6/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Cerner (CERN)
  • LKQ Corp (LKQ)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 6, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.4% since inception. 43.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (12/2/2016)

Fave Five (12/2/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.1%.

We’re back after a Turkey hiatus and proceeding with the second year of this weekly feature and resultant tracking portfolio. This week’s stocks represent some leaders with a solid long term outlook, a couple that have clearly found a speed bump … but all of them are generally regarded as “over sold” and many of them have been appearing on screening results.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Allergan (AGN)
  • Cerner (CERN)
  • Steris (STE)
  • Synaptics (SYNA)
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (December 2, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +4.5% since inception. 51.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Stuffing Stockings With Eddy

Crossing Wall Street: Buy List for 2016

Source: http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2015/12/cws-market-review-december-18-2015.html

by Eddy Elfenbein

The five new stocks are Alliance Data Systems (ADS), Biogen (BIIB), Cerner (CERN), HEICO (HEI) and Stericycle (SRCL). I’ll have more to say about them next week. Don’t worry, I’ll go into full detail. I’ll also explain why I’m removing the deletions.

The six deletions are Ball, eBay, Moog, Oracle, PayPal and Qualcomm. Remember that we have an extra stock leaving this year due to the PayPal spinoff.

To recap, I assume the Buy List is equally weighted among the 20 stocks. The buy price for each stock will be the closing price as of December 31, 2015. The new Buy List goes into effect on January 4, 2016, the first day of trading of the new year.

The Buy List is now locked and sealed, and I won’t be able to make any changes for the entire year. I’ll have a complete recap of 2015 at the end of the year. I’ll also have more to say about our new buys, and I’ll give you new Buy Below prices.

As far as this year’s Buy List goes, there are only nine trading days left in 2015, and it appears that our Buy List will return to its market-beating ways. Through Thursday, our Buy List is up 4.09% while the S&P 500 is down 0.83% (not including dividends). This will be the eighth time in the last nine years that we’ve beaten the S&P 500.

The Manifest Investing “Take Away”

For now, here’s the preliminary tracking dashboard. (The “contributions” will be reset to $50,000 each at the beginning of the new year.) The overall return forecast is projected to outpace the market over the long term.

The newcomers bring considerable strength to the portfolio, bolstering the overall return forecast, quality and sales growth forecast. Overall quality is good and although we’d like to see a little higher average growth forecast — it’s above average and hunkered down for potential persistent doldrums.

All but one of the Buy List entries (Signature Bank) hail from the Value Line Standard Edition.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) was featured as a 5-star stock via www.morningstar.com just this morning.

The 1-Year total return forecast (ACE) for the Buy List 20 is a robust 16.3%.

Sector distribution and Size/Growth Diversification can be checked and continuously monitored using the tracking portfolio at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/crossing-wall-street-2016-buy-list

Speaking Of Tracking Portfolios

As Eddy mentioned, as the 2015 Buy List comes “spinning out of the turn” and heading to the finish line — it looks like the CWS Buy List will beat the market for the 8th time in the last nine years! Congratulations, Eddy.

Through 12/17, the S&P 500 (VFINX) is up 1.1% (including dividends) and the 2015 Buy List is up 5.2%.

https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/crossing-wall-street-2015-buy-list

Take us home, Eddy. Seasons Greetings and Merry Christmas, Everyone!

Gone Shopping With Eddy (2016)

If you’re not familiar with Eddy Elfenbein and http://www.crossingwallstreet.com, you should be. Eddy thinks like us and it looks like his “Buy List” of stock selections is well on track to beat the market for the 8th time in the last nine years!

This excerpt is from his Thursday update (blog … go ahead, subscribe for FREE) and we’ll rake these around the holiday coals … same thing we do every year, Pinky. See: CWS Market Review for 12/4/2015

Ten Possible Additions for Next Year’s Buy List

For next year’s Buy List, I’m going to add five new stocks. Here are ten stocks I’m strongly considering for next year’s Buy List:

  • Alliance Data Systems (ADS)
  • Cerner (CERN)
  • Church & Dwight (CHD)
  • FactSet Research Systems (FDS)
  • F5 Networks (FFIV)
  • Footlocker (FL)
  • HEICO (HEI)
  • Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
  • VF Corp. (VFC)
  • Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)

I still haven’t finalized my decision, but I wanted you to know some names that are under serious consideration.

 

Manifest Investing Analysis

We start with a snapshot of the dashboard for the ten nominees and the value of $100 invested five years ago — so we can see which stocks have been “naughty” and which ones have been “nice” for the last few years.

Eddy Elfenbein’s short list for 2016 Buy List additions as of 12/4/2015.

This dashboard is public and is available to view at:
https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/cws-buy-candidates-2016

Collectively, these ten candidates have been smokin’ hot with an annualized total return of 22.3% (vs. 13.5% for the S&P 500, VFINX). The only exception has been F5 Networks (FFIV) — checking in at a loss for the trailing five years.

Buy list shopping 20151204

The Long and Short of the CWS Shopping List

Note: The price targets from Goldman Sachs (GS) are from public releases and represent a partial sample. The price target is logged as of the most recent public analyst report. Although every effort is made to keep this information as current as possible, some of the ratings may not reflect more recent research and updates. Some of the older Goldman Sachs estimates (>6-9 months) have been adjusted using more recent price targets from Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley etc.

If you were Eddy, which stocks would you select for your 2016 Buy List?

Do you have another stock or candidates that you feel are more worthy?

Bring it.