Month: November 2016

Round Table (November 2016)

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November Round Table

Our Round Table, a monthly session featuring our favorite stock ideas right now in true round table fashion, was held November 29.

Stocks Discussed

  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • Mercadolibre (MELI)

The stocks selected for this program over the last six years have collectively beaten the Wilshire 5000. The excess return (annualized) has been ranging from 2-3%. We seek actionable opportunities to study and pursue.

The agenda will also include a continuation of our selling decision concept based on relative return.

The round table knights include small company champion and Mid-Michigan Director Ken Kavula; Cy (MythBuster) Lynch; pharmaceutical scientist Hugh McManus; and Manifest Investing’s Mark Robertson who will analyze their favorite stocks. Guest damsels have included Anne Manning, Susan Maciolek and Kim Butcher. Guest knights who have jousted include Nicholas Stratigos, Herb Lemcool and Matt Spielman.

The audience selected CVS Health (CVS).

Positions closed/sold: Knight Transportation (KNX), Landauer (LDR), PRA Group (PRAA), US Physical Therapy (USPH)

The tracking portfolio has been updated at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/round-table

Rt poll 20161129

Fave Five (11/18/2016)

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Fave Five (11/18/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

This week, we seek the companies with the best return forecasts, highest quality and in a tribute to www.morningstar.com — the companies with the lowest price-to-fair value ratios as being potentially “on sale.” Context: A P/FV = 100% would indicate that a stock is priced at its fair value according to Morningstar.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO)
  • Stericycle (SRCL)
  • Synaptics (SYNA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (November 18, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +5.0% since inception. 50.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (11/11/2016)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , , ,

Fave Five (11/11/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • FleetCor (FLT)
  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)
  • Silicon Motion (SIMO)
  • STERIS (STE)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (November 11, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +4.5% since inception. 50.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (11/4/2016)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , , ,

Fave Five (11/4/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

Every year, we remind investors to focus on small company opportunities in the final quarter of the year. Tax-related selling can often provide outsized opportunities — a condition that is amplified among the faster-growing and promising smaller companies. We used to urge investors to carefully mine the Forbes List of Best Small Companies that was published in late October for 36 years. Unfortunately, Forbes discontinued the feature last year. Fret not. We’ll be out with our own list of 40 Best Small Companies soon (final edits in progress.) The 2016 collection performed very well for the second straight year.

The Fave Five This Week

This week we’re taking a detour to feature the five companies at the top of our 40 Best Small Companies for 2017. As shown here, the 2016 collection outdistanced the Wilshire 5000 by a considerable margin — beating the total stock market for the 8th time in 11 years with an excess/relative return since inception of +4.6%.

  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Mercadolibre (MELI)
  • Meridian Bioscience (VIVO)
  • Mesa Labs (MLAB)
  • Neogen (NEOG)

Context: The median S&P price to fair value ratio is 102%.

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (November 4, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +4.0% since inception. 52.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors