Month: April 2017

Fave Five (4/28/2017)

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Fave Five (4/28/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.6%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Lease (AL)
  • Fleet Cor (FLT)
  • Monster Beverages (MNST)
  • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 28, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +2.3% since inception. (The absolute rate of return is 17.1%.) 47.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Huge Expectations (An Update)

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Value Line 1700 (x-Financials)

We’ll monitor this as we roll along the data array updates over the next several weeks of update batches. But the early returns do show quite a bump in expectations for 2018 and 2021. Here’s an update through 4/28/2017.

Observations

  • This is a work-in-progress. Think of it like “exit polling” with 85% of “precincts” reporting as we’ve logged the forecasts for 2018 and 2021 for issues 1-11 so far.
  • The sales bump for 2018 seems a little less significant, but still material. It will be interesting to see if it persists and if the 2021 expectations remain elevated above the long-term trend.

Bard, C.R. (BCR) Acquired

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Becton Dickinson (BDX) to Acquire Bard (BCR) for $317 (cash & stock) …

No, NOT that Bard!

Becton Dickinson (BDX), a leading global medical technology company, and C. R. Bard (BCR), a medical technology leader in the fields of vascular, urology, oncology and surgical specialty products, announced today a definitive agreement under which BD will acquire Bard for $317.00 per Bard common share in cash and stock, for a total consideration of $24 billion. The agreement has been unanimously approved by the Boards of Directors of both companies.

The combination will create a highly differentiated medical technology company uniquely positioned to improve both the process of care and the treatment of disease for patients and healthcare providers. The transaction will build on BD’s leadership position in medication management and infection prevention with an expanded offering of solutions across the care continuum. Additionally, Bard’s strong product portfolio and innovation pipeline will increase BD’s opportunities in fast-growing clinical areas, and the combination will enhance growth opportunities for the combined company in non-U.S. markets.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bd-acquire-bard-24-billion-210400916.html

One of Eddy Elfenbein’s absolute faves, too …

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2017/04/the-bcrbdx-press-release.html

  • Textbook “Up, Straight and Parallel”
  • Easy to make a case for 6-8% growth, a projected net margin of 20% and a P/E in the high teens. Remarkably consistent.
  • Is $317 (cash + stock) a good price for the faithful shareholders in our community? Most companies are acquired at a premium — the acquirer will generally pay a price that delivers a ZERO or SUB–ZERO projected annual return (PAR) according to an updated analysis. (Unless you’re Warren Buffett) In this case, the $317 is a “sell” according to our analysis.

Bcr analysis 20170424

Fave Five: Triple Play (4/14/2017)

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Fave Five (4/14/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.8%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Lease (AL)
  • FleetCor (FLT)
  • LKQ (LKQ)
  • Synaptics (SYNA)
  • Synchronoss Tech (SNCR)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 14, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.0% since inception. 49.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (4/7/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (4/7/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.4%.

The stocks from the Finviz Week (3/24/2017) have been doing exceptionally well (relative return = +7.5% already) and we’ll make sure to visit that screening method again — and likely at least once/month.

The Fave Five This Week

  • AmTrust Financial Services (AFSI)
  • LKQ (LKQ)
  • LuLuLemon (LULU)
  • Synaptics (SYNA)
  • Under Armour (UA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.3% since inception. (The absolute rate of return is 17.0%.) 50.2% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five