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Fave Five (7/28/2017)

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Fave Five (7/28/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.2%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • KKR (KKR)
  • Lam Research (LCRX)
  • Western Digital (WDC)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (July 28, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.6% since inception. 43.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection. The absolute annualized rate of return is 15.9%.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

A Better Conspiracy

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This Week at MANIFEST (1/27/2017)

A financial advisor I know describes the reality of investing money by saying, “Hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.” With almost every decision we make in life there is uncertainty about the outcome. Close. But my preference would be for “[Prepare With] the BEST to be prepared for the worst.” That’s a pretty good nutshell for quality-driven growth investing — WITH YOUR FRIENDS.

Better Conspiracy

One of the more powerful — and enabling — things that we do as a community is DISCOVER and share ideas that have the potential for better returns. Better returns enable better futures. These futures are often very altruistic and philanthropic and I love the generosity I’ve witnessed over the last few decades working with so many of you.

A new acquaintance recently asked me what I do. I thought for a moment and responded, “I conspire.” His eyebrows lifted and I continued, “I conspire with a community of successful long-term investors to experience (and share) the rewards of long-term investing with those who seek it.” “I conspire to reinforce patience and discipline where necessary because this journey is often challenging.” “Our cornerstone is over seven decades of doing this, learning from and leaning on each other, to pursue the methods and deploy them among friends and family.” “I conspire.” “Because there are legions of doubters who would tell us that this is not possible, too risky … and not worth the effort.” “I conspire.” “Because I know this is often false (or ignorant) and yes, I understand uncertainty and the reality that there are no guarantees” “But I’ve seen the contrary results from ordinary people displaying patience and deploying extraordinary discipline.”

“I conspire.” “Because WE CAN BEAT THE MARKET and experience successful investing.”

We’ll show you how to soar with turtles.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 20. Coach (COH))
  • 38. Wal-Mart (WMT)
  • 40. Costco Wholesale (COST)

Round Table Stocks

  • Coach (COH)
  • Costco Wholesale (COST)
  • Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR)
  • Fossil (FOSL)
  • Hibbett Sporting Goods (HIBB)
  • Michael Kors (KORS)
  • Pricesmart (PSMT)
  • Ulta Salons (ULTA)
  • Vera Bradley (VRA)

Best Small Companies

  • 9. Five Below (FIVE)
  • 20. Francesca’s (FRAN)
  • 24. IMAX (IMAX)
  • 25. Nautilus (NLS)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (1/27/2017)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 7.7% vs. 3.3% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: J.C. Penney (JCP), Insight Enterprises (NSIT)
,
Materially Weaker: Abercrombie (ANF), Fossil (FOSL), Vera Bradley (VRA), G-III Apparel Group (GIII), Hertz Global (HTZ), Michael Kors (KORS), DSW (DSW), Finish Line (FINL), Sempra Energy (SRE)

Discontinued: Netsuite (N)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 3.3%, unchanged from 3.3% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (1/27/2017)

Gone shopping. A few favorites bubbling near the top of the study list …

The Long & Short. (January 27, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five (1/27/2017)

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Fave Five (1/27/2017)

Our Fave Five generally represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The median 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

This week we spend a few moments with John Kimmel of Wichita, Kansas. John is currently the front runner in the individual category with a +67% return — as a co-conspirator with his Long-Term Investment Club colleagues — and in the institutional category for his Brookfield Digest newsletter.

This domination of the Groundhog field is unprecedented.

In his words: I think biotech should recover further into the year if President Trump and Congress are not too unfavorable. Maybe the worst is priced in. Haven’t bought Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) or Under Armour (UAA) but the numbers look good enough I want to get my clubs to study for possible purchase. My “bench” which I own are Air Lease (AL), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), FaceBook (FB), LKQ Corp. (LKQ), & Opko Health (OPK). [John’s club was one of the clubs that shared the “light” when it came to Bio-Reference Labs and decided to hold OPK after the transaction.] Another six are speculative, some of which have the possibility of maybe pulling off an FCX. One can hope.

As a reminder of what FCX has done over the last year:

Yes, Virginia, that’s a 250% gain. John and his colleagues selected different portfolios for all three categories in this year’s contest and every single selection has positive gains with the vast majority beating the market.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 27, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +4.4% since inception. 48.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Best Small Companies (2016)

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Best Small Companies (2016)

We lamented the decision by Forbes to discontinue their annual Best Small Companies list last year. 36 years in the running, the list provided a number of actionable opportunities over the last couple of decades for many of us. That said, while sticking to their core criteria, we may have actually improved the discovery and screening process. The returns posted by the lists, orphaned for two years now, have been 19.0% and 21.6%, respectively. For context, the Wilshire 5000 checked in at approximately 4% for both periods. With this experience under our belts, we head for the haystack in search of promising smaller companies to bolster our all-of-the-above investing discipline and hoping for a solid January Effect.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained 2.5% from 10/31/2015 through Halloween 2016.

The Wilshire 5000 (VTSMX) did a little better, checking in at 4.1% during that same period.

Every Halloween, we remind our fellow investors to be extra vigilant for opportunities among smaller, faster-growing companies, during the 4th quarter of the year. History suggests that some opportunities are created by tax-related selling. The smaller companies are impacted the most and those with solid expectations often get a stock price boost during January when investors return after wash sale periods expire.

Small Cap Does Not Mean Small Company

It’s also a time when we are reminded that small cap does not mean small company. As a case in point, the average sales growth forecast for the Russell 2000 (EQWS) is approximately 6.0% — the type of growth more closely associated with stalwarts and larger blue chip contributors. If you’re really looking for small companies, we suggest an emphasis on higher growth rates. This month’s fund feature is Conestoga Small Cap (CCASX) featuring an average sales growth rate of 13%. Go ahead. Check out the companies held by Conestoga. (See page 4.) In a word, they obviously shop for leadership small companies in much the same way that we do and can/should be considered a qualified source of ideas. Conestoga features a +2.4% (annualized) excess return versus the S&P 500 over the last ten years.

The criteria used to build the list is largely faithful to the Forbes traditions. Specifically, annual revenues were limited to less than $1 billion, but required to be greater than $50 million. We also required a minimum stock price of $5. Because we feel the sales growth forecast is the strongest characteristic to define “small” — we required a minimum growth forecast of 10%. No asset-based companies from the financial sector were included. And finally, when we think about “Best” we think the combination of quality and return forecast is a great place to start.

This Year’s Haystack

The companies that qualify for our 2016 Best Small Company Manifest are shown in the accompanying table.

Newcomer Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) checks in at #1. VIVO is covered in the Value Line Standard Edition and had a 16% low total return forecast (11/18/2016). Meridian Bioscience provides diagnostic test kits, purified reagents and related products, as well as biopharmaceutical enabling technologies. Products are marketed to hospitals, laboratories, veterinary centers, physician offices, diagnostic manufacturers and biotech companies worldwide. The company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio and investors are encouraged to explore the investor relations materials at:
www.meridianbioscience.com

Diagnostics as a “theme” are fairly prevalent among the best small companies. Solomon Select feature Mesa Labs (MLAB) is one example and Mid-Michigan local favorite, Neogen (NEOG) is another. Both of these companies were “discovered” via the Forbes list and continue to qualify. Another company that qualifies as biopharma-enabling might well be Simulations Plus (SLP) but the company falls a little short of the annual revenues minimum.

We expected to lose last year’s #1, Forward Air (FWRD) to “graduation” but the recessionary conditions in transporting “stuff” kept FWRD below the $1 billion maximum. Forward Air had been a resident of the Forbes listing for seven years … so this makes it nine years for this logistics leader.

The top performer from last year’s best small companies was Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) with a total return of 79.7%. Ubiquiti develops high performance networking technology for service providers and enterprises. UBNT is closing the digital divide by building network communication platforms and has 38 million devices worldwide. Ubiquiti just missed qualifying for this year’s list — ranking #41 as the UBNT return forecast is down to 7.9% following the robust performance over the last year.

 

Diagnosis: Ubiquitous

We think a ubiquitous haystack is a path to opportunity and success. We’re reminded that we can’t achieve proper balance unless we’re continuously searching for the next promising well-managed small company. We’re reassured by the presence of several long time favorites on this study list and look forward to discovering and diagnosing at will.

Fave Five: Escape Velocity

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Fave Five (12/9/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.1%.

Every year we run a stock selection challenge starting on Groundhog Day (February 2) and running for the next twelve months. Individual investors and groups like investment clubs are welcome to participate by choosing 5-20 stocks.

We’ve now got nine annual contests under our belt. We crown an individual and group champion every year.

Escape Velocity

In three of the last four years, the Broad Assets Investment Club of St. Louis has toppled dozens of competing groups — taking home multiple Groundhog stock selection championships.

I’ll let that sink in.

Three of the past four years. Their excess/relative return (annualized) since inception is +28.7%.

Let that sink in, too.

We want some of whatever they’re having. Seriously, we checked the water … asked what they had for breakfast, etc. in an effort to come to grips with the primary driver behind their stunning success and track record. We discovered one potential influence. It seems like Broad Assets latches on to companies that have huge incremental improvements in earnings forecasts for next year versus this year. We detailed our findings in our cover story, Victory By Escape Velocity?

This week’s Fave Five is based on companies with solid long-term outlooks that also have superior earnings forecasts for 2017 versus estimates for 2016. The bracketed column displays the top five year-over-year forecasts, according to analyst consensus estimates. [Source: ACE and finance.yahoo.com]

The median year-over-year (2017/2016) differential for the ~2400 companies we cover is currently 11.8%.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Allergan (AGN)
  • Baidu (BIDU)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • Universal Display (OLED)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (December 9, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +5.8% since inception. 51.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Weekend Warrior Tracking Portfolio: Selling Discipline

There are two primary selling conditions for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio.

  • For the first year after selection, if the excess/relative return (vs. the Wilshire 5000) becomes less than -20%, the position is closed.
  • A position is also closed (usually with a victory lap) when the return forecast (PAR) is less than the median return forecast (MIPAR).

This week, Stifel Financial (SF) and Raymond James (RJF) have both been on a surge, gaining 65% since selection. With return forecasts of 2-4% when the median return forecast is now 5% — both positions were closed. [High Five]

Fave Five (12/11/2015)

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Fave Five

Here are five stocks that could be studied going into the weekend. They essentially represent a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are Five Below (FIVE), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-TO) and Cognizant Technology (CTSH).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) is 18.2%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 7.9% (annualized).

  • Five Below (FIVE) is a retailer that offers a broad range of merchandise targeted at the teen and pre-teen customer. All products are priced at $5 or below. Its products are in the following category worlds: Style, Room, Sports, Media, Crafts, Party, Candy, and Now. And here we pause to catch our breath because many investors are loathe to consider fad-sensitive apparel-related stocks. (1) We’ll only retain in the tracking portfolio for as long as it makes sense to do so. Consider it a prenuptial promise. (2) If you need a reminder about why this might make sense, see: And The Children Shall Lead Us… — note the returns to shareholders from some of these retail companies that we often avoid. (3) Five Below was featured prominently among our 50 Best Small Companies for 2016 holding down the #38 position.
  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM) provides cloud services for delivering, optimizing and securing online content and business applications. It provides its services to improve the delivery of content and applications over the Internet.
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH) is an old friend to most of us by now. The company is a provider of information technology, consulting and business process outsourcing services. Its core competencies include Business, Process, Operations and IT Consulting, Application Development and Systems Integration, Enterprise… CTSH is the second most widely-followed company by our subscribers (AAPL is still #1) and was added to the MANIFEST 40 on 12/15/2008. (CTSH has beaten the market by +22.9% — annualized — since then.)

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +2.5% since inception.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Transactions

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) was removed, or “sold” from the tracking portfolio after beating the market by 10 percentage points over the last few weeks. The SWKS PAR had dropped below our Sweet Spot.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

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