Month: February 2016

Fave Five (2/26/2016)

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Fave Five (2/26/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Inteliquent (IQNT)
  • Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 25.9%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 8,5% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +3.2% since inception. 63.2% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

16 Stocks On The Launch Pad?

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Screening Results (February 2016)

In Search of “First Stage” Potential

by Mark Robertson

As we’ve watched the Broad Assets investment club win three of the last four years in the Groundhog group competition, we’ve searched for a common theme … a genesis of their statistically significant success.

Escape Velocity?

Our May 2014 cover story captured the essence pretty well. We’re looking for companies that are not only well-positioned for the long term with the insurance component of high quality, but companies poised to deliver large year-over-year increases in earnings. If we believe that stock prices follow earnings — and we do — it seems natural to seek these launch pad situations.

This month’s screening results are an attempt to do just that. The list that follows is a collection of excellent quality companies. But they also have relatively large expectations for 2016 earnings vs. 2015. The average forecast increase is 12.4%. All of these top that threshold. We include the relative strength index (RSI) for a glance at oversold potential. (RSI near 30) We’ll check back in a year to see if the EPS step changes take shape and if prices follow. If they do, it won’t hurt my Groundhog 2016 entry a bit.

Fave Five (2/19/2016)

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Fave Five (2/19/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week: Stifel Financial (SF), Astronics (ATRO), Aaron’s (AAN), Argan* (AGX) and Inteliquent (IQNT).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 27.0%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 9.0% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Number of analysts covering in parentheses.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +1.6% since inception. 54.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (2/12/2016)

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Fave Five (2/12/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week: Stifel Financial (SF), Oceaneering Intl (OII), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), The Ensign Group* (ENSG) and Biogen IDEC (BIIB).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 26.4%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 10.4% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +1.4% since inception. 55.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Annual Super Bowl Poll (2016)

expectingalpha Watercooler

It’s time for our annual Super Bowl survey. Hit REPLY and tell us who you know is going to win Super Bowl 50.

Once again, there’s not a clear “old NFL” team again this year. A victory by the nearly undefeated National Conference champion Carolina Panthers (17-1) would be “most like” an OLD NFL victory … so investors across this nation probably ought to be in the Panther camp. The Broncos are clearly on old AFL team and the stock market is vulnerable to a Super correction at some point.

So sorry, Peyton Manning fans — a Denver victory would not be good according to the Super Bowl stock market indicator

We’re 6-for-10 having mistakenly selected the Seahawks (77%) over the Patriots (23%) last year.

Our Selections

XLIX: Seattle Seahawks (Super Bowl won by New England Patriots)
XLVIII: Denver Broncos (Super Bowl won by Seattle Seahawks)
XLVII: San Francisco 49ers (Super Bowl won by Baltimore Ravens)
XLVI: New York Giants (defeated the New England Patriots)
XLV: Green Bay Packers (defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers)
XLIV: New Orleans Saints (defeated the Indianapolis Colts)
XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers (defeated the Arizona Cardinals)
XLII: New England Patriots (Super Bowl won by New York Giants)
XLI: Indianapolis Colts (defeated the Chicago Bears)
XL: Pittsburgh Steelers (defeated the Seattle Seahawks)

20 Consensus Stock Selections

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Here are the consensus selections from the participants in our annual stock picking contest — Groundhog X (2016) … twenty pretty good stock studies that could be worthy of a closer look.

The tracking dashboard can be accessed here: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/heavy-hogs-2016

Heavy hogs dash 20160205

Growth: Top line growth forecast.  Projected P/E: Long term P/E ratio.  Projected Yield: Long term “average” dividend yield.  Financial Strength: Consensus ranking based on Value Line, Morningstar, S&P and debt quality considerations.  EPS Stability: Relative variability of EPS trend (2009-2019).  Quality: Percentile ranking based on financial strength, EPS stability and relative growth & profitability.  PAR: Projected Annual Return for long term return forecast.

Fave Five (2/5/2016)

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Fave Five (2/5/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are PRA Group* (PRAA), Astronics (ATRO), Inteliquent (IQNT), and Aaron’s (AAN).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 25.8%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 9.2% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +1.3% since inception. 50.0% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Groundhog Excellence (2015)

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Groundhog Challenge IX Results (2015)

“The groundhog is like most other prophets; it delivers its prediction and then disappears.” — Bill Vaughn

That’s the case with many of the talking heads we see on the media at places like CNBC. Rarely do they keep score. Rarely do they make the observation that some of the pundits are like stopped clocks.

We choose not to have that luxury at Manifest Investing. We keep track of results, charting relative return (excess return vs. market index benchmarks) over time. We’re here — as a community — for the returns.

The bottom line is that nine years of the Groundhog Challenge have yielded an aggregate annualized total return of 7.6% versus mirroring investments in the Wilshire 5000 that have delivered 5.2%.

And that’s after a particularly challenging year.

Join us for a FREE webcast on Saturday morning while we review the results and share ideas for 2016 and beyond.

When: Saturday, February 6 at 10 AM ET.

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/189-groundhog-ix-gala-revue