$RMCF

Festivus Five (12/23/2016)

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Festivus Five (12/23/2016)

December 23. Happy Festivus! Festivus is both a parody and a secular holiday celebrated on December 23 that serves as an alternative to participating in the pressures and commercialism of the Christmas season. Originally a family tradition of Seinfield scriptwriter Dan O’Keefe, Festivus entered popular culture after it was made the focus of the 1997 episode “The Strike”. The non-commercial holiday’s celebration, as it was shown on Seinfeld, occurs on December 23 and includes a Festivus dinner, an unadorned aluminum Festivus pole, practices such as the “Airing of Grievances” and “Feats of Strength”, and the labeling of easily explainable events as “Festivus miracles”.

This week’s stock study selections are “a Festivus for the rest of us!”

The primary driver for the screening criteria was the 1-year total return (via analyst consensus estimates) but the field was limited to companies with a Manifest Investing rank of 90 and above (based on long-term return forecast and quality ranking).

For context, the average 1-year ACE total return forecast is currently 8.0% for the approximately 2400 companies in our coverage.

So we’re looking for that 1-year miracle … as a case in point, the analyst consensus for Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF) has a 1-year total return forecast of 78.6% based on an expected price of $18 and a 4.7% yield. The problem is that the ACE committee of analysts is N/A.

The Fave Five This Week: Festivus Special

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five (Festivus Special Edition)

Festivus SPECIAL: The Long & Short. (December 23, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.7% since inception. 46.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (12/16/2016)

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This weekly feature is now into its second year and we now have a handful of positions in the tracking portfolio with a holding period greater than a year.  The two-pronged screening method seems to have promise and it also serves as a “proving ground” for our exploration of excess/relative return-based selling guidelines.

Fave Five (12/16/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

This week we’re renaming the tracking portfolio and will begin referring to it as the Fave Five Legacy.

It will reside at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Allergan (AGN)
  • Roche (RHHBY)
  • Rocky Mountain Chocolate (RMCF)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (December 16, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +2.7% since inception. 50.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (11/11/2016)

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Fave Five (11/11/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • FleetCor (FLT)
  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)
  • Silicon Motion (SIMO)
  • STERIS (STE)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (November 11, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +4.5% since inception. 50.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors