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Covid Cancellation Conference (Nov 10-11)

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SCHEDULE
PRESENTERS
ABOUT

… More Months Go By … More Conventions Cancelled …

A series of four free webinars, presented online
by BI Mid-Michigan Chapter and Manifest Investing

This series of four webinars will be offered as a partial replacement for some of the sessions originally scheduled for BINC (BetterInvesting National Convention) which has been indefinitely postponed … due to the pandemic.

As the accompanying image of Tahquamenon Falls in Michigan’s upper peninsula suggests, we like to take a moment, Give Thanks, and celebrate that a colorful horizon lies ahead while we nod knowingly that this year has been a challenge. This is not the first time we’ve seen this movie. Stock markets have been surging and turbulent in the wake of a pandemic and the path ahead includes uncertain inflation effects and a variety of vision-impacting conditions. That said, we again envision a break in the clouds, a reliable burst of color on many of our landscapes and better days ahead. The pandemic includes an outbreak of event cancellations and there’s no more succinct way to express what we think about that. “We miss all of you.”

In that spirit, we’re building Successful Investing IV — a compendium of investing discussions intended to characterize the current challenges and demonstrate the discovery of opportunity. We’ve been through similar challenges in the past and the key is remembering what-we-do and what-really-matters and never forget that there’s always opportunities for long term investors.

Registration: You must register separately for each session; sign up for as many of the (4) sessions as you wish, using the registration URL listed with each session in the FULL SCHEDULE information below. Upon registering, you will receive a confirmation email with your access information. Use the information in the confirmation email to enter the webinar at the appropriate time.

Alternate registration sites are available at manifestinvesting.com and https:www.betterinvesting.org/chapters/mid-michigan/local-events.

Recordings: The sessions will be recorded and posted after the sessions to the Manifest Investing YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/user/manifestinvest/videos; you do not need to register to view the recordings.

FULL SCHEDULE (Times listed are for Eastern Daylight Time.)

Session 1: Stock Pickers, Groundhogs & Long-Term Investing (Ken Kavula, Mark Robertson)

Date: Wednesday – November 10 — 2 PM – 3:30 PM EDT
Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4721899283424002573

This class will cover the results of the nineteenth annual Mid-Michigan Stockpickers’ Contest. We’ll celebrate the winners and the losers, examine some of the strategies used by the clubs to reap profits and recognize excellence in stock picking. We’ll also look at the Manifest Investing Groundhog contest and show how it can be mined as a rich source of ideas. The class will demonstrate that it doesn’t necessarily take a portfolio filled with exotic names to beat the market.

Session 2: 20 Questions — Investing & Investment Clubs (Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Mark Robertson)

Date: Wednesday — November 10 — 4 PM – 5:30 PM EDT
Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/6212031108665399053

Have you ever played 20 questions? This class aims to discover new ways of becoming a Better Investor and to reinforce tried and true investing behaviors. Our questions will be gathered from club visits Mark, Ken and Cy have made over the years, from questions that our audience has submitted and from questions that commonly arise as we travel the country teaching BetterInvesting methods. We hope the session will prove to be enlightening, entertaining and educational.

Session 3: Finding & Profiting From Small Companies (Ken Kavula, Mark Robertson)

Date: Thursday — November 11 — 2 PM – 3:30 PM EDT
Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/6936851163928269325

Every year near the end of October Mark and Ken examine the best small companies. Their track record of beating the market with their list of investable companies with revenues under $1.5B or thereabouts is impressive. Join them a they unveil their picks for 2021-22.

Session 4: Let’s Talk Stock: Stock Ideas NOW! (Kim Butcher, Ann Cuneaz, Pat Donnelly, Charlene Hansen, Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Mark Robertson)

Date: Thursday, November 11— 8 PM – 9:30 PM EDT
Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/1142104927665262349

What happens when you gather seven of the best Stockpickers in our community on a single panel and ask them for great ideas? If you are lucky and listening hard you might get some of the best ideas in your investing career. Past panels have brought you winners like NEOG, ILMN, SLP, VEEV and ARNA. We hope some of you listened last fall as STNE, FIVE and EPAM were presented as great ideas for investing. What will we hear this year? We don’t guarantee all winners but we do think you will be entertained and informed. Join us and listen carefully.

Kim Butcher is a Lifetime member of BetterInvesting and a BetterInvesting National Convention Presenter as well as a Round Table Presenter for Manifest Investing . She is currently a member of 2 investment clubs and one being “Bionic”, an online club that has members from the East to the West coast. Her love of teaching began during her career as a nurse over 30 years ago. She is also a past member of the BetterInvesting Volunteer Advisory Board (BIVAB).

Ann Cuneaz is the Education Program Senior manager at BetterInvesting. Ann manages a variety of educational programs designed to help BetterInvesting Members become successful long-term investors, including First Cut Stock Reports, StockUp, TickerTalk, Online Stock Studies, Introduction to the Stock Selection Guide Series (SSG Series), Adding Judgement Series and more. Ann has been a member of BetterInvesting since 1998 and a founding partner of two investment clubs. Previously she was an active volunteer at the local, regional and national level since 2001. Ann holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the Michigan State University.

Pat Donnelly is president of the Pittsburgh Chapter having worked in several positions within the Chapter and previously served on the Better Investing Volunteer Advisory Board. Recently Pat has been elected to the Better Investing National Board of Directors. Pat is proudly married to Sue Donnelly and together they have two great kids. During the day, Pat is a cloud infrastructure technology consultant. Besides finding great stocks, learning from the great volunteers, he likes to learn and share about the many no-cost computer based resources available to the individual investor. Tools that are available to everyone, some of them built right into your computer. When time permits after that Pat is revisiting his interest in sailing.

Ken Kavula (kkavula1@comcast.net) has served the modern investment club movement in a wide variety of leadership volunteer positions. He is a Nicholson award winner, a retired educator and is regarded as a small company champion and respected speaker nationwide. You might have heard him teaching on the TickerTalk program for BetterInvesting. Before retirement, Ken served as Principal of Genesee HS for 21 years. He lives with his wife Natalie near their two children and five grandchildren and he also belongs to four investment clubs, including two Model clubs and a family club. Ken and Natalie are avid theater goers and travel as much as they can.

Charlene Hansen resides in Elk Rapids, Michigan, with her husband, Dennis, a retired Kroger Executive, and is a Director for the Mid-Michigan Chapter of BetterInvesting. Elk Rapids lies just north of Traverse City and is also the home to one of Mid-Michigan’s Model Clubs. Charlene is the President of this this club known as POVIC (Port of Value IC). POVIC has about 15 members, both men and women. In addition to her investing activities, she serves on the Elk Rapids Harbor Commission. Charlene enjoys golf, painting, reading and travel.

Cy Lynch (celynch@att.net) is a respected and experienced long-term investor and educator. He has served in a number of regional and national volunteer capacities and currently serves on the Better Investing Board of Directors. Among his many vocational roles include investment advisory and service as a lawyer. He recently was ordained as a Baptist Minister. He is a Lifetime member of Better Investing. Cy is a frequent contributor at MANIFEST, providing regular educational topics and a knight of the Round Table series. Cy and his wife, Barb, are enthusiastic advocates for animal rights.

Mark Robertson (markr@manifestinvesting.com) is founder and Managing Partner of Manifest Investing, served as senior contributing editor for Better Investing and has worked with successful investment clubs and individual investors since 1993. He has appeared on National Public Radio, CNBC and ABC to discuss long-term investing. He has also worked with Smart Money, Barron’s, Money magazine and the Motley Fool and been covered by the Chicago Tribune, Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch as well as a number of local publications.

What we do is different.

The modern investment club movement was a big tent … and a considerable bandwagon. Unfortunately, people’s capitalism and the stewardship of common stock OWNERSHIP has hit a bit of a speed bump, or worse. It’s pretty clear that some WD-40 is needed. The results achieved by the persistent are compelling. But too quiet.

What we do is different. We have no problem with things like discounted cash flow analysis — we believe that we’re chasing fewer variables and that SIMPLER is usually better when it comes to the realm of investing.

“Mathematics is ordinarily considered as producing precise and dependable results; but in the stock market the more elaborate and abstruse the mathematics the more uncertain and speculative are the conclusions we draw therefrom. In forty-four years of Wall Street experience and study I have never seen dependable calculations made about common-stock values, or related investment policies, that went beyond simple arithmetic or the most elementary algebra. Whenever calculus is brought in, or higher algebra, you could take it as a warning signal that the operator was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also to give to speculation the deceptive guise of investment.” — Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

Amidst the chaos, turbulence and avalanche of information, we find it rewarding and seemingly more reliable to focus on growth, profitability and valuation in a different kind of model. As is often the case, events like a prior Morningstar Investment Conference serves to remind about the value of being simple … and different.

The audience gasped when Keith Lee of Brown Capital Management confessed that in over 25 years of successful investing that he’s never owned a financial sector stock. In his own words, Brown is “sector benchmark agnostic.” Brown Small Company (BCSIX) has a 10-year relative return of +1.5%.

Cathie Wood and ARK Investing (ARKK) have a relative return of +17.4% since 2014.

Keith Lee and Brown Capital Management and Cathie Wood and ARK Investing are different. We like different.

The Mid-Michigan Chapter of Better Investing is an outstanding example of community investing. Known as a “chapter” that operates on behalf of the National Association of Investors, the goal is to share the potential of long-term investing with as many individuals as possible. A network of investment clubs and individual investors has been admirably served by a talented team of educators and counselors for decades. The excellence runs deep — centered on the time-honored lessons of the modern investment club movement for the past 80 years. The chapter runs a steady series of educational programs and supports the development of regional and nationwide opportunities for sharing. We’re better together.

Manifest Investing is a web-based investing system including research and features/tools for stock and fund screening as well as resources for portfolio design and management. The resources are completely based on our interpretation of the lessons learned, methodologies, techniques and disciplines promulgated by the modern investment club movement. The intent is to serve do-it-yourself investors, small groups of portfolio managers known as investment clubs and to support the efforts of those who want to work in a more informed manner with their professional investing advisors. The community and content stream generates a continuous flow of actionable ideas. We seek and deliver “elegant simplicity” by focusing on a small number of factors and characteristics that really matter. Features and regular webcasts (e.g. monthly Round Table, weekly Bull Sessions) feature demonstrations of analysis and methods. Our focus is on demystifying investing — particularly when it comes to the design and management of a portfolio — enabling anyone to experience successful investing with their personal investing or retirement plans. We endorse and encourage investment clubs as vehicles for support and group learning.

If you’d like a FREE test drive of http://www.manifestinvesting.com to explore and experience the origins of community-driven actionable ideas, send your request to markr@manifestinvesting.com  The annual subscription is $40/year — a special offer that will expire at the end of the month.  The annual subscription will be $79 after that.

Fave Five (9/7/2018): Morningstar

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Fave Five (9/7/2018)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The median 1-year ACE total return forecast is 10.0%.

This week we limit the field to companies with excellent quality (>80) with the lowest price-to-fair value ratios (P/FV) according to Morningstar.

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Long & Short Term Perspectives. (September 7, 2018) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. 52-Week Position: Position on scale between 52-week low price and 52-week target price. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target.

McKesson (MCK) is on “wash sale probation” as it was sold on 8/31/2018 and is unavailable to the tracking portfolio until October.

Intel (INTC) is one of our favorite examples of stock prices that seem to move in “fits and starts.” The company is currently #26 among the most widely-followed stocks by Manifest Investing subscribers and has generally tracked the market (8% annualized total return) since charter membership in the MANIFEST 40 back on 9/30/2005. Intel (INTC) spent four years on the Round Table roster after selection by Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson back on 3/26/2013. The rate of return when sold on 12/19/2017 was 21.6% — beating the Wilshire 5000 by 9.5 percentage points.

Looking down the top (50) stocks that met this week’s criterion, we were struck by the number of Ken Kavula nominations for the Round Table in the field. Perhaps Morningstar gives extra credit for “up, straight and parallel,” too? A recent example is the laser purveyor, Coherent (COHR). The company was featured (by Ken) during the July 2018 Round Table.

Stericycle (SRCL) has been in the Fave Five tracking portfolio since 12/8/2017 and has stumbled to a relative return of -16.7%. Yes, Virginia, SRCL is on the Rule-of-5 hot seat but they may still stick the landing and commence recovery.

NutriSystem (NTRI) is #4 on our Best Small Companies list for 2018 and was added to the Fave Five tracking portfolio on 3/22/2018. NTRI has delivered a healthy return, 32.1% since then. Bring out your best small companies ideas as we build and share the Best Small Companies (2019 edition) around Halloween. Yes, we’re searching haystacks and counting down …

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.5% since inception.

The absolute annualized rate of return is 18.9%.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five: Triple Play (3/3/2017)

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Fave Five (3/3/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 6.9%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Abbvie (ABBV)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • Polaris (PII)
  • Proto Labs (PRLB)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (March 3, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.3% since inception. 53.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (2/3/2017)

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Fave Five (2/3/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.0%.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • QUALCOMM (QCOM)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • Transdigm Group (TDG)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (February 3, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.0% since inception. 46.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Favorite Screens: Launch Pad 2017

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These Are A Few Of Our Favorite Screens

(30) Launch Pad Candidates (12/9/2016)

As 2016 winds to a close and we start thinking about the Groundhog 2017, it’s time to go shopping for the best opportunities in the coming year. As we recently featured and reminded, it can make sense to peruse the companies with the largest incremental step changes in earnings expectations for the coming year.

Yes, Virginia, we realize that virtually no one can portend stock prices and indices over such a short time frame — but as our contest participants have shown over the last several years, it can make sense to find stocks that look good for the long term that appear to be poised or perhaps about to experience some sort of catalyst. This was the Better Investing premise of featuring a long-term Stock to Study while also giving a nod to a shorter time horizon for the Undervalued feature.

This is also what we do with the weekly updates of the Fave Five and the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio.

The accompanying figure demonstrates what we seek — companies with the biggest boost in expected earnings for 2017 versus 2016. As shown for Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK), their work in a number of key development areas could restore growth and profitability to this venerable pharmaceutical leader.

And if that doesn’t work out, there’s always AB InBev (BUD) …

Screening Criteria

  • 2017 EPS/2016 EPS > +50.0%
  • Quality Ranking > 60 (Excellent or Good Quintiles)

For context, the median year-over-year (2017/2016) change in EPS is +11.8%.

The average 1-year total return forecast (ACE) is currently 8.1%.

Our median long term return forecast (MIPAR) is now 5.0%.

Launch pad screen 20161207

Of Grandmothers & Garage Sales

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Expecting Alpha

[From February 2003, Better Investing] One of my favorite goldies — this one hits really, really close to home… about pockets of priceless opportunities …

As our extended family gathered over Thanksgiving to be with Grandma Vi, memories were rekindled. My wife’s grandmother is the matriarch of that side of our family. Her wisdom and serenity provide an exemplary ambition for all of us. Grandparents play a special role in our lives and the moments that our children have spent in Grand company are, as the commercial says, “Priceless.”

Grandma Vi lives for a good game of cards. Of course, she defines a good game of rummy as one that she wins.

My memories are many. But at the same time, they’re too few. I can always use more of those essential reminders that better shape days ahead. Tom Brokaw writes of Greater Generations,and Grandma Vi is among those he…

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Wall Street on Water … Ahead

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This Week at MANIFEST (9/23/2016)

If you’ve ever wondered what a cruise ship class room looks like, here’s Christi Powell (Oklahoma City) aboard the Holland Cruise Lines Westerdam doling out another one of her exceptional classes on common sense financial matters. This voyage had two side-by-side class rooms, attended pretty much as you see here. As you can see, it’s like any other class room — except for the glaciers, whales, salmon and Alaskan fjords out the window.

Relatively small blocks of time (1 hour each) were carved out during the cruise to present a number of investing-related classes over a span of seven days. It was the first time Manifest Investing had attended and participated in one of these efforts and we came away impressed with the potential. The pace was unhurried and attendees had plenty of opportunities over dinners and while navigating the waters to discuss just about anything. We’ll probably explore collaborating with Better Investing and reaching out to some other communities for a Boston-to-Montreal version of this cruise next year. Stay tuned for more details and please send us a note (manifest@manifestinvesting.com) if you’d be interested in exploring more details about a future cruise… and we’ll add you to the “Maybe” Manifest. (grin)

There were many highlights and we’ll continue the roll out of the handbook chapters we issued to our ship mates in days ahead.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 4. Fastenal (FAST)
  • 15. Procter & Gamble (PG)
  • 31. Home Depot (HD)
  • 35. Lowe’s (LOW)

Round Table Stocks: Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), Fastenal (FAST), Tractor Supply (TSCO)

Best Small Companies (None this week)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (9/23/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.0% vs. 5.0% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Ethan Allen (ETH), Bemis (BMS)

Materially Weaker: Sunpower (SPWR), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Tile Shop Holdings (TTS)

Discontinued: Cablevision (CVC), Elizabeth Arden (RDEN)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.0%, unchanged from 5.0% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (9/23/2016)

The Long & Short. (September 23, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value viawww.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Stock Selection & Portfolio Management September 24, 2016 at 9:00 AM ET Indianapolis, Indiana

Ken Kavula & Mark Robertson will be the featured presenters at this all-day educational workshop for long-term investors. Overview of Analysis (We’ll actually do a case study — walking through the analysis with exposure to our favorite resources and research.) Common Ground – How investment clubs take care of a portfolio. We’ll review portfolio design and discuss management considerations. What is effective stock “watching?” How can we best be vigilant for opportunities and threats to our holdings? Discovery – A demonstration of various screening resources with a look at some of our favorite resources. An Industry Study – Taking a discovery and putting it through its paces to ensure that we’re considering (or accumulating and retaining the best of the best) Let’s Talk Stocks – An interactive, audience-driven discussion of specific study ideas and case studies.

For more information: Go here.

September Round Table September 27, 2016 at 8:30 PM ET ONLINE

Stocks Featured: TBD

The Round Table tracking portfolio has beaten the market by 3-4 percentage points over the last five years. Consider joining Kim Butcher, Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson as they share their current favorite stock study ideas.

We will be continuing the discussion of the relative return-based selling guideline for portfolio management.

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/199-round-table-september-2016

Discovery Club

“Dump your hedge funds and explore their small-cap stock picks.”

Small cap is not necessarily small (faster-growing) companies but in general, we like the idea of a nice blend. So yes, we’re interested in hunting down some actionable ideas among the most successful investors on our radar screen — seeking companies that aren’t on too many radar screens, yet.

The discovery of smaller, promising and faster-growing companies has always been one of our favorite (and rewarding) activities. In that spirit, we’re expanding our efforts in this realm. This week, we redouble our efforts to discover some smaller, less discovered companies and add them to our coverage. The EXTENDED EDITION of the Value Line Investment Survey will be the first resource scanned and we’ll also take a look at some new positions or significant accumulations among our Best Small Company Funds starting with Brown Small Company.

But it doesn’t end with only the smaller companies, we’ll also be vigilant for opportunities flagged by reviewing the quarterly filings of idea generation resources like the Renaissance Technologies hedge fund.

This Week’s Sources and Suggestions

  • ITC Holdings (ITC) — Thanks, Marty Eckerle (Temporary Reinstatement)
  • Value Line Investment Survey

Coverage Initiated/Restored: CalAtlantic (CAA), Fonar Corp (FONR), ITC Holdings (ITC), State National (SNC)

Market Barometers (Continued)

By popular demand, it’s probably time to check in on our of favorite, albeit obscure, market barometers.

US New Highs-New Lows ($USHL)

The long-term trailing average for $USHL actually dipped below zero within the past year — and trepidation was a little more rampant. But as shown here, the storm seems to have passed.

ushl 20160921

When Squirrels Get Hot Feet

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Expecting Alpha

In honor of that huge geographical electrical outage ten years ago this weekend, here’s a throw back to a Better Investing column I wrote at the time.

“Water, water, everywhere and not a drop to drink.”

Alex, our 13-year-old, and I were returning from a couple of days of camping and canoeing in northern Michigan. About 90 minutes from home, I decided to check in with my spouse. “All circuits are busy. Please try your call again later.” For me,“later” is approximately five seconds whenever I encounter that message. So I tried again. “All circuits are busy.” It became obvious that something was amiss because I continued to redial every 5 to 10 minutes for nearly two hours. “All circuits are busy.”

“All circuits are busy.”

We rolled into town to find all the traffic lights out of service, with the expected gridlock. A five-minute spin across town turned into…

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Cyber Monday Sale @ Manifest

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Cyber Monday Sale!

Black Friday is more than just another day … our special extends through Cyber Monday.

Discover the successful investing approach used by hundreds of thousands of investors over the last several decades. By focusing on company quality, return forecast and growth forecasts — we design and manage portfolios that are built to beat the market.

Create an account at www.manifestinvesting.com for ONLY $49/year — and save $30 off the regular subscription until December 1.

Manifest Investing is one of the few places where you can screen for stocks while remaining focused on what really matters: (1) the long-term return forecast and (2) quality. Our powerful screening tools continuously deliver actionable ideas.

Discover how dashboards can enhance your portfolio design and management experience.

We’re thankful for the gains from companies like Apple (AAPL), up +349% (28.4% annualized) since it was added to our 40 most widely-followed stocks back in September 2009. Other companies, like Cognizant Technology (CTSH), FactSet Reseach (FDS) and Walgreen (WBA) have combined to deliver exceptional market-beating performance. We are grateful for contributions from other companies like Bio-Reference Labs (BRLI) and IPC Hospitalist (IPCM) — two companies that were acquired during 2015 rewarding our long-term investors.

The discovery of promising, smaller, faster-growing companies is a core guiding principle. You can experience a recent demonstration of highlighting study candidates at Best Small Companies . This feature includes a public dashboard that can be sorted to identify (from highest to lowest projected annual return) purchase candidates.

When we think of Black Friday, we think of positive relative returns … the black ink statistics that underscore market-beating performance by so many of our portfolios, demonstrations and club/individual portfolios. The Round Table tracking portfolio has topped the market by 3.5 percentage points over the last five years. Our monthly Solomon Select stock features have collectively beaten the market and the Tin Cup demonstration portfolio got “back to even” with this perpetually fully-invested collection of stocks and continues to soar. Tin Cup makes the maximum allowable deposit into a demonstration 401(k) … passed $1,000,000 in 17 years and already has $2,000,000 in the cross hairs.

Create An Account. Explore.

1. Start your account and launch a FREE, fully functional 30-day test drive. Explore features like the Stock Search, Dashboards and Sandboxes … and our weekly features that highlight threats and opportunities for stock watchers and shareholders. The weekly features present a number of actionable stock study ideas.

2. If you’re in a club or have friends and family that you’d like to share Manifest Investing with, share the message and we’d be happy to give them a FREE test drive also. Let us know via manifest@manifestinvesting.com(All we need is name, email address and zip code to establish an account.)

3. Place your renewal order before December 1 and the price will be $49/year. The price after the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping frenzy will return to $79/year.

Discover Manifest Investing today for $49/year … nearly a 40% discount to the regular subscription price.

For clubs or groups with more than eight partners, contact us (manifest@manifestinvesting.com) for a great personalized Black Friday offer.

Create your account today, and then SUBSCRIBE for one or two years using coupon code FRIDAY and save $30.

Best wishes and Better Investing!

 

Introductory pricing is only available to households or customers at a business address who have not been subscribers to Manifest Investing within the last 180 days. If you respond to this offer but do not qualify for introductory pricing, we reserve the right to reject your order or prorate your subscription term to reflect current subscriber pricing. This offer may be withdrawn at any time.

Thanksgiving 2010: Of Heroes & Harvests

expectingalpha Uncategorized

From five years ago — still a worthy celebration of Promises. Kept.

Expecting Alpha

Gerri Willis of Fox Business News asked about the Beardstown Ladies during an interview this week.  Yes, they’re still in existence and prospering. They’ve added new partners. The media still mangles the facts about that mistake.  The mistake was largely Disney’s — a federal judge agrees with me.  The Ladies committed a human error.  Their performance was better than is perpetually broadcasted.  You can ask Price-Waterhouse about that.  But more importantly, they continue to grow, explore and reach out to remove mystery and fear from investing — enabling a new generation to discover successful long-term investing.  We shared some details in this message from Thanksgiving 2010 …

Thanksgiving is a time for reflection, gratitude and hope and in this case, a rekindling of a very special spirit nestled in the cornfields of Illinois …

Of Heroes and Harvests …

It was a beautiful autumn day in the heartland. I attended…

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