Fave Five: Triple Play (3/3/2017)

Fave Five (3/3/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 6.9%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Abbvie (ABBV)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • Polaris (PII)
  • Proto Labs (PRLB)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (March 3, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.3% since inception. 53.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (2/3/2017)

Fave Five (2/3/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.0%.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • QUALCOMM (QCOM)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • Transdigm Group (TDG)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (February 3, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.0% since inception. 46.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Favorite Screens: Launch Pad 2017

These Are A Few Of Our Favorite Screens

(30) Launch Pad Candidates (12/9/2016)

As 2016 winds to a close and we start thinking about the Groundhog 2017, it’s time to go shopping for the best opportunities in the coming year. As we recently featured and reminded, it can make sense to peruse the companies with the largest incremental step changes in earnings expectations for the coming year.

Yes, Virginia, we realize that virtually no one can portend stock prices and indices over such a short time frame — but as our contest participants have shown over the last several years, it can make sense to find stocks that look good for the long term that appear to be poised or perhaps about to experience some sort of catalyst. This was the Better Investing premise of featuring a long-term Stock to Study while also giving a nod to a shorter time horizon for the Undervalued feature.

This is also what we do with the weekly updates of the Fave Five and the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio.

The accompanying figure demonstrates what we seek — companies with the biggest boost in expected earnings for 2017 versus 2016. As shown for Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK), their work in a number of key development areas could restore growth and profitability to this venerable pharmaceutical leader.

And if that doesn’t work out, there’s always AB InBev (BUD)

Screening Criteria

  • 2017 EPS/2016 EPS > +50.0%
  • Quality Ranking > 60 (Excellent or Good Quintiles)

For context, the median year-over-year (2017/2016) change in EPS is +11.8%.

The average 1-year total return forecast (ACE) is currently 8.1%.

Our median long term return forecast (MIPAR) is now 5.0%.

Launch pad screen 20161207

Of Grandmothers & Garage Sales

Expecting Alpha

[From February 2003, Better Investing] One of my favorite goldies — this one hits really, really close to home… about pockets of priceless opportunities …

As our extended family gathered over Thanksgiving to be with Grandma Vi, memories were rekindled. My wife’s grandmother is the matriarch of that side of our family. Her wisdom and serenity provide an exemplary ambition for all of us. Grandparents play a special role in our lives and the moments that our children have spent in Grand company are, as the commercial says, “Priceless.”

Grandma Vi lives for a good game of cards. Of course, she defines a good game of rummy as one that she wins.

My memories are many. But at the same time, they’re too few. I can always use more of those essential reminders that better shape days ahead. Tom Brokaw writes of Greater Generations,and Grandma Vi is among those he…

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Wall Street on Water … Ahead

This Week at MANIFEST (9/23/2016)

If you’ve ever wondered what a cruise ship class room looks like, here’s Christi Powell (Oklahoma City) aboard the Holland Cruise Lines Westerdam doling out another one of her exceptional classes on common sense financial matters. This voyage had two side-by-side class rooms, attended pretty much as you see here. As you can see, it’s like any other class room — except for the glaciers, whales, salmon and Alaskan fjords out the window.

Relatively small blocks of time (1 hour each) were carved out during the cruise to present a number of investing-related classes over a span of seven days. It was the first time Manifest Investing had attended and participated in one of these efforts and we came away impressed with the potential. The pace was unhurried and attendees had plenty of opportunities over dinners and while navigating the waters to discuss just about anything. We’ll probably explore collaborating with Better Investing and reaching out to some other communities for a Boston-to-Montreal version of this cruise next year. Stay tuned for more details and please send us a note (manifest@manifestinvesting.com) if you’d be interested in exploring more details about a future cruise… and we’ll add you to the “Maybe” Manifest. (grin)

There were many highlights and we’ll continue the roll out of the handbook chapters we issued to our ship mates in days ahead.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 4. Fastenal (FAST)
  • 15. Procter & Gamble (PG)
  • 31. Home Depot (HD)
  • 35. Lowe’s (LOW)

Round Table Stocks: Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), Fastenal (FAST), Tractor Supply (TSCO)

Best Small Companies (None this week)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (9/23/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.0% vs. 5.0% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Ethan Allen (ETH), Bemis (BMS)

Materially Weaker: Sunpower (SPWR), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Tile Shop Holdings (TTS)

Discontinued: Cablevision (CVC), Elizabeth Arden (RDEN)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.0%, unchanged from 5.0% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (9/23/2016)

The Long & Short. (September 23, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value viawww.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Stock Selection & Portfolio Management September 24, 2016 at 9:00 AM ET Indianapolis, Indiana

Ken Kavula & Mark Robertson will be the featured presenters at this all-day educational workshop for long-term investors. Overview of Analysis (We’ll actually do a case study — walking through the analysis with exposure to our favorite resources and research.) Common Ground – How investment clubs take care of a portfolio. We’ll review portfolio design and discuss management considerations. What is effective stock “watching?” How can we best be vigilant for opportunities and threats to our holdings? Discovery – A demonstration of various screening resources with a look at some of our favorite resources. An Industry Study – Taking a discovery and putting it through its paces to ensure that we’re considering (or accumulating and retaining the best of the best) Let’s Talk Stocks – An interactive, audience-driven discussion of specific study ideas and case studies.

For more information: Go here.

September Round Table September 27, 2016 at 8:30 PM ET ONLINE

Stocks Featured: TBD

The Round Table tracking portfolio has beaten the market by 3-4 percentage points over the last five years. Consider joining Kim Butcher, Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson as they share their current favorite stock study ideas.

We will be continuing the discussion of the relative return-based selling guideline for portfolio management.

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/199-round-table-september-2016

Discovery Club

“Dump your hedge funds and explore their small-cap stock picks.”

Small cap is not necessarily small (faster-growing) companies but in general, we like the idea of a nice blend. So yes, we’re interested in hunting down some actionable ideas among the most successful investors on our radar screen — seeking companies that aren’t on too many radar screens, yet.

The discovery of smaller, promising and faster-growing companies has always been one of our favorite (and rewarding) activities. In that spirit, we’re expanding our efforts in this realm. This week, we redouble our efforts to discover some smaller, less discovered companies and add them to our coverage. The EXTENDED EDITION of the Value Line Investment Survey will be the first resource scanned and we’ll also take a look at some new positions or significant accumulations among our Best Small Company Funds starting with Brown Small Company.

But it doesn’t end with only the smaller companies, we’ll also be vigilant for opportunities flagged by reviewing the quarterly filings of idea generation resources like the Renaissance Technologies hedge fund.

This Week’s Sources and Suggestions

  • ITC Holdings (ITC) — Thanks, Marty Eckerle (Temporary Reinstatement)
  • Value Line Investment Survey

Coverage Initiated/Restored: CalAtlantic (CAA), Fonar Corp (FONR), ITC Holdings (ITC), State National (SNC)

Market Barometers (Continued)

By popular demand, it’s probably time to check in on our of favorite, albeit obscure, market barometers.

US New Highs-New Lows ($USHL)

The long-term trailing average for $USHL actually dipped below zero within the past year — and trepidation was a little more rampant. But as shown here, the storm seems to have passed.

 ushl 20160921

When Squirrels Get Hot Feet

Expecting Alpha

In honor of that huge geographical electrical outage ten years ago this weekend, here’s a throw back to a Better Investing column I wrote at the time.

“Water, water, everywhere and not a drop to drink.”

Alex, our 13-year-old, and I were returning from a couple of days of camping and canoeing in northern Michigan. About 90 minutes from home, I decided to check in with my spouse. “All circuits are busy. Please try your call again later.” For me,“later” is approximately five seconds whenever I encounter that message. So I tried again. “All circuits are busy.” It became obvious that something was amiss because I continued to redial every 5 to 10 minutes for nearly two hours. “All circuits are busy.”

“All circuits are busy.”

We rolled into town to find all the traffic lights out of service, with the expected gridlock. A five-minute spin across town turned into…

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Cyber Monday Sale @ Manifest

Cyber Monday Sale!

Black Friday is more than just another day … our special extends through Cyber Monday.

Discover the successful investing approach used by hundreds of thousands of investors over the last several decades. By focusing on company quality, return forecast and growth forecasts — we design and manage portfolios that are built to beat the market.

Create an account at www.manifestinvesting.com for ONLY $49/year — and save $30 off the regular subscription until December 1.

Manifest Investing is one of the few places where you can screen for stocks while remaining focused on what really matters: (1) the long-term return forecast and (2) quality. Our powerful screening tools continuously deliver actionable ideas.

Discover how dashboards can enhance your portfolio design and management experience.

We’re thankful for the gains from companies like Apple (AAPL), up +349% (28.4% annualized) since it was added to our 40 most widely-followed stocks back in September 2009. Other companies, like Cognizant Technology (CTSH), FactSet Reseach (FDS) and Walgreen (WBA) have combined to deliver exceptional market-beating performance. We are grateful for contributions from other companies like Bio-Reference Labs (BRLI) and IPC Hospitalist (IPCM) — two companies that were acquired during 2015 rewarding our long-term investors.

The discovery of promising, smaller, faster-growing companies is a core guiding principle. You can experience a recent demonstration of highlighting study candidates at Best Small Companies . This feature includes a public dashboard that can be sorted to identify (from highest to lowest projected annual return) purchase candidates.

When we think of Black Friday, we think of positive relative returns … the black ink statistics that underscore market-beating performance by so many of our portfolios, demonstrations and club/individual portfolios. The Round Table tracking portfolio has topped the market by 3.5 percentage points over the last five years. Our monthly Solomon Select stock features have collectively beaten the market and the Tin Cup demonstration portfolio got “back to even” with this perpetually fully-invested collection of stocks and continues to soar. Tin Cup makes the maximum allowable deposit into a demonstration 401(k) … passed $1,000,000 in 17 years and already has $2,000,000 in the cross hairs.

Create An Account. Explore.

1. Start your account and launch a FREE, fully functional 30-day test drive. Explore features like the Stock Search, Dashboards and Sandboxes … and our weekly features that highlight threats and opportunities for stock watchers and shareholders. The weekly features present a number of actionable stock study ideas.

2. If you’re in a club or have friends and family that you’d like to share Manifest Investing with, share the message and we’d be happy to give them a FREE test drive also. Let us know via manifest@manifestinvesting.com(All we need is name, email address and zip code to establish an account.)

3. Place your renewal order before December 1 and the price will be $49/year. The price after the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping frenzy will return to $79/year.

Discover Manifest Investing today for $49/year … nearly a 40% discount to the regular subscription price.

For clubs or groups with more than eight partners, contact us (manifest@manifestinvesting.com) for a great personalized Black Friday offer.

Create your account today, and then SUBSCRIBE for one or two years using coupon code FRIDAY and save $30.

Best wishes and Better Investing!

 

Introductory pricing is only available to households or customers at a business address who have not been subscribers to Manifest Investing within the last 180 days. If you respond to this offer but do not qualify for introductory pricing, we reserve the right to reject your order or prorate your subscription term to reflect current subscriber pricing. This offer may be withdrawn at any time.