Round Table (Dec 2015)

Round Table (December 2015)

What: Round Table Discussion of Favorite Stock Study Ideas

When: Tuesday, December 29 at 8:30 PM ET

Where: Online. Register via https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2741626017839875074

Who: Cy Lynch, Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson

Why: Because we like to share ideas for successful investing. The selections made by Round Table participants have beaten the market over the last five years with a relative return of approximately +3.0%

Stocks Likely To Be Featured

  • Favorites from Christmas Countdown Dozen and/or This Week’s Fave Five
  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
  • Mesa Labs (MLAB)
  • Scripps Network (SNI)
  • TBD

The session (webcast) is FREE. Please invite your friends and family to attend.

If you’d like to be added to an email reminder list for this and all future (monthly) Round Tables, send a request to nkavula1@comcast.net

Fave Five (12/28/2015)

Fave Five

Here are five stocks that could be studied over the Christmas holidays. They essentially represent a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are Team Health (TMH), Hain Celestial (HAIN), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Under Armour (UA) and Apple (AAPL).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) is 21.0%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 7.7% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

  • Team Health (TMH) is the supplier of outsourced healthcare professional staffing and administrative services to hospitals and other healthcare providers in the United States.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +0.1% since inception.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Stuffing Stockings With Eddy

Crossing Wall Street: Buy List for 2016

Source: http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2015/12/cws-market-review-december-18-2015.html

by Eddy Elfenbein

The five new stocks are Alliance Data Systems (ADS), Biogen (BIIB), Cerner (CERN), HEICO (HEI) and Stericycle (SRCL). I’ll have more to say about them next week. Don’t worry, I’ll go into full detail. I’ll also explain why I’m removing the deletions.

The six deletions are Ball, eBay, Moog, Oracle, PayPal and Qualcomm. Remember that we have an extra stock leaving this year due to the PayPal spinoff.

To recap, I assume the Buy List is equally weighted among the 20 stocks. The buy price for each stock will be the closing price as of December 31, 2015. The new Buy List goes into effect on January 4, 2016, the first day of trading of the new year.

The Buy List is now locked and sealed, and I won’t be able to make any changes for the entire year. I’ll have a complete recap of 2015 at the end of the year. I’ll also have more to say about our new buys, and I’ll give you new Buy Below prices.

As far as this year’s Buy List goes, there are only nine trading days left in 2015, and it appears that our Buy List will return to its market-beating ways. Through Thursday, our Buy List is up 4.09% while the S&P 500 is down 0.83% (not including dividends). This will be the eighth time in the last nine years that we’ve beaten the S&P 500.

The Manifest Investing “Take Away”

For now, here’s the preliminary tracking dashboard. (The “contributions” will be reset to $50,000 each at the beginning of the new year.) The overall return forecast is projected to outpace the market over the long term.

The newcomers bring considerable strength to the portfolio, bolstering the overall return forecast, quality and sales growth forecast. Overall quality is good and although we’d like to see a little higher average growth forecast — it’s above average and hunkered down for potential persistent doldrums.

All but one of the Buy List entries (Signature Bank) hail from the Value Line Standard Edition.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) was featured as a 5-star stock via www.morningstar.com just this morning.

The 1-Year total return forecast (ACE) for the Buy List 20 is a robust 16.3%.

Sector distribution and Size/Growth Diversification can be checked and continuously monitored using the tracking portfolio at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/crossing-wall-street-2016-buy-list

Speaking Of Tracking Portfolios

As Eddy mentioned, as the 2015 Buy List comes “spinning out of the turn” and heading to the finish line — it looks like the CWS Buy List will beat the market for the 8th time in the last nine years! Congratulations, Eddy.

Through 12/17, the S&P 500 (VFINX) is up 1.1% (including dividends) and the 2015 Buy List is up 5.2%.

https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/crossing-wall-street-2015-buy-list

Take us home, Eddy. Seasons Greetings and Merry Christmas, Everyone!

Fave Five (12/18/2015)

Fave Five

Here are five stocks that could be studied going into the weekend. They essentially represent a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are Inteliquent (IQNT), Team Health (TMH), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) and Apple (AAPL).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) is 18.3%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 8.3% (annualized).

  • Inteliquent (IQNT) was one of the more successful Round Table selections of the past few years as the company has rebounded from severe lows.
  • Team Health (TMH) is the supplier of outsourced healthcare professional staffing and administrative services to hospitals and other healthcare providers in the United States.
  • Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) is embroiled in the oil patch wars. The company is engaged in the transportation, storage and distribution of refined petroleum products.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is -0.2% since inception.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (12/11/2015)

Fave Five

Here are five stocks that could be studied going into the weekend. They essentially represent a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are Five Below (FIVE), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-TO) and Cognizant Technology (CTSH).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) is 18.2%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 7.9% (annualized).

  • Five Below (FIVE) is a retailer that offers a broad range of merchandise targeted at the teen and pre-teen customer. All products are priced at $5 or below. Its products are in the following category worlds: Style, Room, Sports, Media, Crafts, Party, Candy, and Now. And here we pause to catch our breath because many investors are loathe to consider fad-sensitive apparel-related stocks. (1) We’ll only retain in the tracking portfolio for as long as it makes sense to do so. Consider it a prenuptial promise. (2) If you need a reminder about why this might make sense, see: And The Children Shall Lead Us… — note the returns to shareholders from some of these retail companies that we often avoid. (3) Five Below was featured prominently among our 50 Best Small Companies for 2016 holding down the #38 position.
  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM) provides cloud services for delivering, optimizing and securing online content and business applications. It provides its services to improve the delivery of content and applications over the Internet.
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH) is an old friend to most of us by now. The company is a provider of information technology, consulting and business process outsourcing services. Its core competencies include Business, Process, Operations and IT Consulting, Application Development and Systems Integration, Enterprise… CTSH is the second most widely-followed company by our subscribers (AAPL is still #1) and was added to the MANIFEST 40 on 12/15/2008. (CTSH has beaten the market by +22.9% — annualized — since then.)

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +2.5% since inception.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Transactions

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) was removed, or “sold” from the tracking portfolio after beating the market by 10 percentage points over the last few weeks. The SWKS PAR had dropped below our Sweet Spot.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Create an account and launch a FREE, fully functional 30-day test drive at http://www.manifestinvesting.com today.  Explore features like the Stock Search, Dashboards and Sandboxes … and our weekly features that highlight threats and opportunities for stock watchers and shareholders. The weekly features present a number of actionable stock study ideas. We’d be happy to give you or a friend a FREE test drive. Let us know via manifest@manifestinvesting.com (All we need is name, email address and zip code to establish an account.) Discover Manifest Investing today for only $79/year.  Create your account today.  

Seek Stocks: All The Right Places

Searching For Stocks … In All The Right Places

We’re leading with our stock screener in the Benzinga FinTech Awards because it’s a feature that is centered on the core of our long-term investing philosophy and method. Balanced on the lessons learned by the modern investment club movement, our stock screener (StockSearch) is the tip of the iceberg — but it’s a demonstration of what is possible when investors remain focused on what matters. Our StockSearch is one of the few tools where investors can screen based on return forecast and/or quality as defined by Benjamin Graham. It’s a powerful advantage. And it’s SIMPLE.

We seek to stack the probabilities of success in our favor. How? Keep it simple. Occam was right.

The two most important characteristics for any investment are its return forecast, or projected annual return (PAR) and quality. Our quality rankings are based on financial strength, consistency of profitability and relative comparisons (vs. peers/competitors) for growth and profitability expectations. (For the genesis and definition of the quality ranking, see: Quality Ranked — Excellence Measured.

Return Forecasts Built … Enables Powerful Screening

We use business model analysis and regressions to build long-term trends for sales and ultimately, earnings expectations for the companies that we follow. Analyst consensus estimates are continuously monitored for any impact (positive or negative) on the business models.

The method produces a return forecast, our projected annual return (PAR) that can be used to isolate opportunities for stocks to study. Audit and verify. Buy and own for as long as it makes sense to do so.

There are very few research/reference sites or publications that support screening based on return forecast — and this is a key differentiator, and advantage, for the long-term investors of our community.

Screening Results

The following display provides the screening results — and supports rapid comparisons of the major fundamentals and characteristics for the qualifying companies:

Screening Results. The list displays companies that survive the screen with a sufficient, or attractive, return forecast — narrowing the range to 13-16% growth forecast. Quality was limited to Excellent companies — those that rank in the 20% of all companies based on the industry/peer comparisons. We further limited the field by requiring Financial Strength > 80 — to deliver strong balance sheets and fields of opportunity and EPS Stability > 80 — to ensure consistency for core candidates.

Further Reading & Viewing

Keeping It Simple — The Best Solutions

Like we’ve said, Occam was right about this. Our decades of discovering the best stocks, world class leaders and assuming ownership when they’re “on sale” is based on attention to a few key factors. Those core characteristics lead to the formation of our return forecasts — enabling us to comparison shop and maintain vigilance. We own companies for as long as it makes sense to do so. The StockSearch tool supports other screens like shopping for companies near their 52-week lows … and try the Ivory Soap screen for yourself, entering MANIFEST Rank > 99.44 as the sole screening criterion. Set the growth forecast at 12% or greater to deliver some smaller, faster-growing companies with promise and potentially rewarding futures. See which companies may be worthy of purchase consideration.

There are many, many screening programs out there — many of them screening on stuff that probably doesn’t matter quite as much. We focus instead on results. StockSearch is a results-based tool designed to serve our quest for better returns. The ability to screen on return forecasts is nearly exclusive to Manifest Investing. We believe you’ll quickly discover the power, simplicity and potential to seek better relative returns.

Create An Account. Explore.

1. Start your account and launch a FREE, fully functional 30-day test drive. Explore features like the Stock Search, Dashboards and Sandboxes … and our weekly features that highlight threats and opportunities for stock watchers and shareholders. The weekly features present a number of actionable stock study ideas.

2. If you’re in a club or have friends and family that you’d like to share Manifest Investing with, share the message and we’d be happy to give them a FREE test drive also. Let us know via manifest@manifestinvesting.com(All we need is name, email address and zip code to establish an account.)

Discover Manifest Investing today for $79/year.  For clubs or groups with more than eight partners, contact us (manifest@manifestinvesting.com) for a custom order and group rate.

Create your account today.  

Best wishes and Better Investing!

Booyah 38 For 2016

Fun With Dashboards

Booyah 38 for 2016

We take a look at the consensus outlooks (both short term, or 1-year, and the long term forecasts) for the best stocks for 2016 featured by Jim “Booyah” Cramer. We follow Jim for the educational slant that he often provides … and point out that his track record is better than most of his critics believe. Our community of investors may well remember the group book report that we shared via Get Rich Carefully (March 2015). Our favorites from the field would be Celgene (CELG), Biogen IDEC (BIIB), Under Armour (UA), Google (GOOG or GOOGL) and Starbucks (SBUX).

TheStreet’s Jim Cramer has a theory on what’s ailing the stock market these days.

The theory goes that there is a “scarcity” of investable stocks, with the exception of a handful of winners across sectors.

“I think we are stuck in an era where we are beginning to recognize that we have too many stocks, too many public companies, too many companies that don’t warrant our attention or our investment in,” Cramer said in prepared remarks for his keynote speech at The Deal Economy: Predictions and Perspectives for 2016 and featured at 38 Annointed Stocks To Add To Your 2016 Portfolio.

Booyah 38 For 2016 Dashboard

Cramer’s (38) stock selections are presented here, alphabetically and will be tracked on the dashboard at: Booyah 38. One of the first things we notice is that the overall average long-term forecast is a mere 5.2% when the average stock has a median long-term return forecast (MIPAR) of approximately 7.5%. This is some of what Cramer is getting at when he talks scarcity. Many of these stocks during a protracted recovery with persistent recessionary characteristics have already attracted a lot of attention from investors. Many of them can be considered defensive or protective measures against corrections or bears.

They’re largely from the S&P 500. In fact, only two hail (Palo Alto Networks & Ulta) from “outside the S&P 1500” with only one, Treehouse Foods (THS) from the S&P 400 Mid-Caps. But Cramer’s selections do manage to average a growth forecast of 10.3% due largely to what might be considered a first cousin of our Smoothie Investing portfolio. Recall that the Smoothie 20 was built from equal parts established blue chip companies and NASDAQ promising stars last summer. The Booyah 38 certainly displays some essence of this.

Quality (75.7) is also a little thin. If scarcity and low return forecasts are an issue — seeking high-quality companies is prudent protection and can be an effective oasis.

Booyah 38 For 2016: Dashboard.

Booyah 38: The Long Of It

Our “forensic review” of Cramer’s stock selections once again underscores some of the challenges and differences in the analyst community. As shown here, there’s a lot of red ink dripping in the Value Line and Morningstar columns. In fact the average long-term return forecast for the Booyah 38 is 0.1%. Fair value is another long-term measure — derived from a discounted cash flow analysis — as performed by Morningstar, S&P and others … The comparison of current price to fair value (P/FV) displays stocks that are attractive (<100%) versus those considered overvalued (P/FV > 100%).

The average P/FV (Morningstar) is 110% and S&P checks in a little more favorably at 104%.

Here’s the Booyah 38 ranked by MANIFEST Rank.

Booyah 38: The Short Of It

But this is really all about the next year, 2016. We gauge expectations using a number of resources including S&P, the analyst consensus estimates (ACE via finance.yahoo.com) and the most influential rhinos (Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and any investment firm with Morgan embedded in the title). We do this with full awareness of the elusiveness, evolution and ebbing nature of forecasts. See: Ritholtz on Forecasting

The median 1-year total return forecast for the Value Line Standard Edition population ($VLE) for the three sources displayed here is:

  • Analyst Consensus Estimates (ACE) = 16.7%
  • Standard & Poor’s (S&P) = 13.4%
  • Goldman Sachs & Other Rhinos (‘GS’) = 14.6%

The average from the Booyah 38 checks in at 11-13% for the companies displayed here.

Closing Thoughts

As we mentioned, 35-of-the-38 stocks are in the S&P 500, so it’s worth wondering if this many stocks aren’t “designed” pretty much to track the S&P 500 (VFINX) for 2016 … and leaving out companies like Apple (AAPL) seems a little precarious.

Just for kicks the average 1-year total return outlook (ACE) for the S&P 500 is 15.6%.

Contrast this with Eddy Elfenbein’s Buy List efforts and our recent Gone Shopping With Eddy analysis of his 2016 selections (due out in a few days — we will let you know). We don’t know precisely how Crossing Wall Street hues their shopping list down to size but the evidence suggests some attention to quality … and the selections seem to have a dual short-term and long-term favorability that seems to have served Eddy well.

We hope everybody does well, shops carefully and experiences the best returns. Booyah!