Fave Five (1/27/2017)

Fave Five (1/27/2017)

Our Fave Five generally represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The median 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

This week we spend a few moments with John Kimmel of Wichita, Kansas. John is currently the front runner in the individual category with a +67% return — as a co-conspirator with his Long-Term Investment Club colleagues — and in the institutional category for his Brookfield Digest newsletter.

This domination of the Groundhog field is unprecedented.

In his words: I think biotech should recover further into the year if President Trump and Congress are not too unfavorable. Maybe the worst is priced in. Haven’t bought Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) or Under Armour (UAA) but the numbers look good enough I want to get my clubs to study for possible purchase. My “bench” which I own are Air Lease (AL), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), FaceBook (FB), LKQ Corp. (LKQ), & Opko Health (OPK). [John’s club was one of the clubs that shared the “light” when it came to Bio-Reference Labs and decided to hold OPK after the transaction.] Another six are speculative, some of which have the possibility of maybe pulling off an FCX. One can hope.

As a reminder of what FCX has done over the last year:

Yes, Virginia, that’s a 250% gain. John and his colleagues selected different portfolios for all three categories in this year’s contest and every single selection has positive gains with the vast majority beating the market.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 27, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +4.4% since inception. 48.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (7/1/2016)

Fave Five (7/1/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Air Lease (AL)
  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Simulations Plus (SLP)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 14.6%. The median 5-year return forecast for $VLE is 7.1% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (July 1, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +1.8% since inception. 41.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Round Table (June 2016)

Our monthly webcast featuring some actionable stock ideas and exploration of some portfolio design & management concepts is tonight, June 28, at 8:30 PM ET.  The following are some of the likely stocks for discussion and some screening results to generate some ideas …

Stocks Likely To Be Discussed

  • Mesa Labs (MLAB)
  • Robert Half (RHI)
  • Biogen (BIIB)

Registration

The session starts at 8:30 PM ET. We commonly “open the doors” to the Green Room at approximately 8:15 PM ET for open discussion and socializing. All are welcome. Register via: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/196-round-table-june-2016

Some Screening Results

This daily update lists the tickers of the stocks that became 5-star investments, according to Morningstar, as of the last market close. A stock is awarded 5 stars when its price hits what Morningstar deems is a “Consider Buying” level.

As is often the case, 2-3 horrific days in the stock market leads to a more extensive list. (A typical day has 1-3 entries)

Tracking Dashboard

We’ll follow $100 into each one of these ideas via: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/morningstar-5-star-20160628

Ivory Screen Stock Search (6/28/2016)

Based on MANIFEST Ranking greater than 99.44 … the MANIFEST Rank is an equally-weighted index based on (1) total return forecast and (2) quality ranking. It represents the top half of the top percentile of current study opportunities.

Ivory screen 20160628

Fave Five (6/10/2016)

Fave Five (6/10/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Inteliquent (IQNT)
  • Simulations Plus (SLP)
  • Under Armour (UA)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 10.4%. The median 5-year return forecast for $VLE is 6.4% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (June 10, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +6.7% since inception. 66.0% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (4/1/2016)

Fave Five (4/1/2016)

No fooling!

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Inteliquent (IQNT)
  • United Therapeutics (UTHR)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 13.3%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.9% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +5.1% since inception. 67.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Round Table (March 2016)

Round Table (March 2016)

Stocks Featured

The audience selected Neogen (NEOG).

The performance (since inception) of the Round Table tracking portfolio is 11.8% annualized.

This is a relative return of +2.7% versus the Wilshire 5000.

52.2% of all nominations have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since selection.

Top Ranked Stocks by Return Forecast AND Quality

The Long & Short. (March 29, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr Rhino Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase or Morgan Stanley.

Channeling Hugh: Companies Near 52-Week Lows

The following screening results intrigued us. We were simply seeking higher quality companies with decent return forecasts that are hovering near their 52-week lows, very much in the spirit of Hugh McManus and his bargain hunting mode.

When the results were displayed, I had to go back and make sure I hadn’t accidentally limited the sector to “healthcare” — because this is one of the features.  But I didn’t.

I guess this confirms that healthcare stocks have had a rough first quarter.