$BWLD

This Week at MANIFEST (8/25/2017)

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This Week at MANIFEST (8/25/2017)

There is no science in this world like physics. Nothing comes close to the precision with which physics enables you to understand the world around you. It’s the laws of physics that allow us to say exactly what time the sun is going to rise. What time the eclipse is going to begin. What time the eclipse is going to end. — Neil deGrasse Tyson

Whenever I sing ‘Total Eclipse of the Heart,’ the way people sing along with me still excites me. It’s one of the songs that audiences know all the lyrics to, and they sing along with me, and it makes me so happy. People also know my songs ‘Holding out for a Hero’ and ‘Lost in France,’ and this gives me so much joy on stage. — Bonnie Tyler

Mark: Ken, You know what makes me sad?

Ken: What’s that, Mark?

Mark: When you and I take a road trip that takes us nearly within walking distance to Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania … and you’re unwilling to make a slight detour.

Ken: Friends, that “slight detour” would have added nearly two hours to a trip that would already require 9 hours. Besides, on both excursions, we were blasted with a deluge that probably drowned Punxsy Phil in all its fury.

Mark: Go ahead, big guy, make light of these tears. Besides, we know that Noah keeps the ark just south of Cincinnati.

Ken: Mark, you know what makes me happy?

Mark: You mean besides dinner with investing friends in Cleveland at Corky & Lenny’s?

Ken: Well, that too. But once again we discover a local conspiracy of investing educators who nurture excellence in long-term investing.

Mark: No kidding. We reviewed four investment club portfolios during the Keystone Strategies conference. All of them were well-positioned, adhering to design targets — most notable in that ALL OF THEM contained a sufficient number of faster-growing companies to keep the overall portfolio growth rate in the 10-12% range.

Ken: Folks, we don’t see this kind of thing very often — and it bodes well for the like-minded investors of Central Pennsylvania.

Mark: Absolutely. It reminded me of Cow Tipping in places like Beardstown and Faribault, Minnesota.

Ken: I can only imagine the detours involved there and I’m probably grateful that I wasn’t in the car. But go ahead, humor me.

Mark: And the wonderful achievements of the Broad Assets investment club of St. Louis. The River Oaks Investment Club has won the Keystone Strategies stock picking contest three out of the last four years in the group category.

Ken: I’ll give you that. The Keystone Strategies contest is outstanding and they’re to be commended. We recommend this type of activity as a path to learning, discovery, sharing of ideas and socializing with successful investors to all communities that we visit.

Mark: … which brings us to Neil deGrasse Tyson.

Ken: I feel a cosmic-sized detour coming on.

Mark: I think we can almost compare the behavior of the stock market in 2008-2009 to an eclipse. In hindsight, it didn’t really last that long but it was scary … but from an epic long-term perspective, we probably should have been looking at the Great Recession with a colander on our heads.

Ken: For some reason, I’m not having much trouble picturing you with …

Mark: [interrupting] I’m serious. Most of “Investor” Nation spends every waking moment worrying about price drops and whether or not it’s possible to time the market ad nauseam. This notion has been very destructive to so many as it has delivered pessimism-driven conservative approaches to asset allocation, etc. as the “gold standard” of prudent investing. For those with long time horizons — and a few more total solar eclipses in their future — there’s no need to think of price volatility as RISK.

Ken: In that case, I think you’re right. And we should point people to the work of our own Cy Lynch on the real definition and impact of RISK in our investing efforts.

Mark: Cy is right about this. And so is AAII’s James Cloonan. Fear of “Risk” has destroyed a lot of capital over the decades. And that leads me to another twisted perception that we’ve been jousting with for years. This turned out to be one of our favorite slides from the weekend.

Mark: [continuing] There’s a couple of things that we can see here. First, we counsel in a BIG way, the importance of all-of-the-above investing. We define this as a blend of fast-growing promising upstarts, a suitable dose of medium-sized workhorse companies growing near average growth rates and a dash of blue-chip stalwarts growing at low single-digit slower growth rates. We build and maintain our portfolios at a 10-12% average sales growth forecast for the portfolio. We can generally point to the Value Line Arithmetic Average as “beating” the S&P 500, largely because of the contribution of the small and medium components. However, this graph shows that the red hot S&P 500 has caught the Value Line 1700 of late, something we’ve not seen since the late 1990s and rarely over the last 60 years. Read Josh Brown’s Just Say No to the S&P 500 from this perspective. But beyond that, notice the roller coaster (volatility) of the S&P 500 versus the Value Line average. Which one is “riskier?” Take it a step further and remove the S&P 500 from the Value Line average (mentally) and imagine how much less bumpy (“riskier”) the remaining small- and medium-sized companies must be.

Ken: This puts our long-held perspective on full display. Fast-growing and medium-sized companies of suitably high quality do not have to be roller coasters. We might also observe our strong emphasis on the S&P 500 field of opportunity approximately five years ago.

Mark: Right. How ya like my colander now? We’ll take a closer look at the S&P 600 and S&P 400 in coming weeks, but we’re launching our Fast Growing Company safari season with a few of the companies we discovered among the entries for the Keystone Strategies contest portfolios. You know what makes me happy? Investing better, with friends, whether the sun is shining or when the moon gets in the way for a few minutes. I’m always holding out for a few more Heroes. (Certain apologies to Bonnie Tyler)

Ken: We visit a lot of chapters and investment clubs. And the efforts of Chuck Reinbrecht, Richard Lindsay and Bruce Kennedy are exemplary as well as the support and achievements we witnessed by the likes of Kyle Blevins, Donna & John Diercks, Ken Mobley, Mary Ann Rentsch and the Cleveland team, John Varner and Barbara Vinson.

Mark: We’re also grateful for the support provided by bivio’s Laurie Madison for the Keystone Strategies contest and event. We look forward to future visits to share ideas and thoughts with the investors of Cleveland and Central Pennsylvania. And that visit to Punxsy Phil’s neighborhood is still on my Bucket List.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 10. FactSet Research (FDS)
  • 27. Starbucks (SBUX)
  • 29. Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)

Round Table Stocks

  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
  • C.H. Robinson (CHRW)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Maximus (MMS)
  • McDonald’s (MCD)
  • Standard & Poor’s Global (SPGI)
  • Starbucks (SBUX)
  • Stericycle (SRCL)
  • Waste Connections (WCN)

Round Table Session Recordings Added

Best Small Companies

  • 3. Forward Air (FWRD)
  • 13. BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (8/18/2017)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 4.9% vs. 3.4% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Huron Consulting (HURN), Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB), Atlas Air (AAWW)

Materially Weaker: BJ’s Restaurants (BJRI), DineEquity (DIN), Bristow Group (BRS), Ship Finance (SFL), PotBelly (PBPB), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), Waste Connections (WCN)

Discontinued: Panera Bread (PNRA)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 3.4%, an increase from 3.1% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Update Batch: Stocks to Study (8/25/2017)

The average return forecast (PAR) for this week’s update batch is 8.0%.

The Long & Short. (August 25, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target.

August Round Table August 22, 2017 at 8:30 PM ET ONLINE

Stocks Likely To Be Featured: TBD

This Round Table will continue the discussion on traditional selling analysis and explore the relative return-based selling we’ve suggested.

Consider joining Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson as they share their current favorite stock study ideas.

Registration: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5621511966734158595

Coming attractions 20170821

Fave Five (12/30/2016)

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Fave Five (12/30/2016)

The primary screening criteria is the MANIFEST Rank, our combination of return forecast and quality. By screening for companies greater than 99.44 — we’re looking at the top half of the top percentage of companies qualifying.

This week’s stock study selections are top shelf candidates — right next to the holiday elf.

For context, the average 1-year ACE total return forecast is currently 8.3% for the approximately 2400 companies in our coverage.

The Fave Five This Week: Five Ideas to Float

  • Abbvie (ABBV)
  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Silicon Motion Tech (SIMO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five (Ivory Soap Special Edition)

Fave Five: The Long & Short. (December 30, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.1% since inception. 44.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Decidedly Older Stocks to Study

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This Week at MANIFEST (5/27/2016)

“Decidedly older.” (Women)

The scene was the Better Investing national convention last weekend in Chantilly, Virginia. It was the last session of the conference. The words rang out during Ken Kavula’s presentation of Ulta Salons (ULTA) as his shared stock idea for the May Round Table. He was — of course — talking about the differential between his teenage granddaughters and some of the “more experienced” clientele that may linger longer in the salon portion of the establishment. Sitting directly on Ken’s right (and within elbowing distance) frequent guest damsel Kim Butcher reacted immediately. “Decidedly older??? I’m fairly certain, Ken, that NONE of us ever want to be referred to as ‘decidedly older’ [Ken was probably grateful that his spouse, Natalie, was not in the room, too.]” The audience roared a second.

“Women, traditionally, become the subjects and objects of other people’s lives.” — Jane Fonda

And for that, we’re infinitely thankful.

Those words are from a TedX speech by Jane Fonda, delivered back in 2011 on the subject of “Life’s Third Act.” It features a perspective on longevity, aging and the shift to living longer and contributing more substantially during our last 30 years on the planet. If you liked Jane in her role on The Newsroom, you’ll probably like these 10-12 minutes via TedX.

The audience at the BI national convention is still not getting younger from a demographics perspective. That said, I’d argue that the shift described by Fonda has been a work in progress for some time and that investment clubs and individual investors have indeed been transforming for a few years. We’re witnessing the transformation of rote methods into deeper understanding and in so many cases, pervasive market beating performance over decades. The Super Investor session that I delivered in Chantilly (Beltway Super Investors) featuring Eddy Elfenbein, David Gardner and a slipstream sample of investment club leaders was very well received and we’ll do more.

Ken and I (and many of you) make “coaching club visits” to a fairly large number of clubs. We’ve witnessed an evolutionary shift. Few clubs make some of the traditional mistakes and the portfolios we see are better designed, better positioned and better maintained. So many clubs embrace our efforts at interpretation, innovation and implementation of the delightfully few things that really matter and we’re grateful for this evolving simplicity … and the results we observe.

During a few moments with some decidedly experienced investors in Chantilly, we were encouraged to keep seeking the foundations of Nicholson’s vision. Some observed that the Nicholson moments we reinforced back at the national convention in Chicago a few years were landmark. And most welcome. We were encouraged to do more. A dear friend who knew Nicholson well urged us to continue to re-discover and reinforce … Press on.

The modern investment club movement is less obvious at a time when it’s probably needed the most. Diebold is back to 98% institutional ownership from the 54% it achieved less than ten years ago. It’s enormously challenging to engage the interest of most people, most young people, and even most decidedly older people in ownership of individual common stocks. (By the way, RPM presented at the conference and appears to be stronger than ever)

I think Jane Fonda is right, an opportunity lies ahead. In her words (with a dash of paraphrasing) …

“Circle back to where we started — and know it for the first time. We could be a necessary cultural shift in the world.”

Inspire younger generations to optimize and maximize their investing experience.

Be decidedly older. Do it well.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 11. FactSet Research (FDS)
  • 30. Starbucks (SBUX)
  • 32. Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)

Round Table Stocks: Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), C.H. Robinson (CHRW), Copa Holdings (CPA), Forward Air (FWRD), Knight Transportation (KNX), Maximus (MMS), McDonald’s (MCD), Panera Bread (PNRA), S&P Global (SPGI), Stericycle (SRCL), Waste Connections (WCN)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (5/27/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 6.3% vs. 5.6% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Iron Mountain (IRM), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Sonic (SONC), Forrester Research (FORR), Equifax (EFX), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

Materially Weaker: Teekay (TK), Frontline (FRO), Calgon Carbon (CCC), American Railcar (ARII)

Discontinued:

Coverage Initiated/Restored:

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.6%, unchanged from last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (5/27/2016)

  • Maximus (MMS) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
  • Ruby Tuesday (RT) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
  • Delta Airlines (DAL) —Lowest P/FV (S&P)
  • Golar LNG (GLNG) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
  • Delta Airlines (DAL) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)

The Long & Short of This Week’s Update Batch

The Long & Short. (May 27, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Round Table (Dec 2015)

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Round Table (December 2015)

What: Round Table Discussion of Favorite Stock Study Ideas

When: Tuesday, December 29 at 8:30 PM ET

Where: Online. Register via https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2741626017839875074

Who: Cy Lynch, Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson

Why: Because we like to share ideas for successful investing. The selections made by Round Table participants have beaten the market over the last five years with a relative return of approximately +3.0%

Stocks Likely To Be Featured

  • Favorites from Christmas Countdown Dozen and/or This Week’s Fave Five
  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
  • Mesa Labs (MLAB)
  • Scripps Network (SNI)
  • TBD

The session (webcast) is FREE. Please invite your friends and family to attend.

If you’d like to be added to an email reminder list for this and all future (monthly) Round Tables, send a request to nkavula1@comcast.net

Happy Thanksgiving!

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This Week at MANIFEST (11/27/2015)

From All of Us to All of You, Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody!

Thanksgiving dinners take eighteen hours to prepare. They are consumed in twelve minutes. Half-times take twelve minutes. This is not coincidence. — Erma Bombeck

I can’t believe that I watched a Charlie Brown/Peanuts Thanksgiving for the first time last night. I’m not sure how that escaped me because a Charlie Brown Christmas is an annual event … and I’ve been known to spend some time in the Pumpkin Patch over the years.

It did serve as a reminder of the arduous voyage made by the Pilgrims across the Atlantic. In cramped quarters, the trip took three months on the Mayflower … and Charles Schultz laid out the cast in terms of crew, Pilgrims and “Strangers.” The term stranger was applied to those were “along for the ride” but not affiliated with the Pilgrim plight nor quest. Until recently, guests to the English Parliament were still referred to as strangers and their seating area known as the Stranger Gallery.

In our community, we celebrate those who invest with a true long-term perspective and frankly, everybody else seems a little strange. (Grin) As David Gardner pointed out recently, the phrase “long-term investing” is a tautology. It’s a mosh of redundancy because by definition, investing is long term.

Ken Kavula and I spent Monday night with another accomplished investment club of 26 years or more (and last Saturday with a couple of 55-year-old clubs) and we marvel at how most clubs welcome Strangers — those who seek the rewards and refuge from the storm … and they do “investing” with friends.

The journey is arduous and although we pay attention to short term influences on trends, we pay more attention to the long-term perspective and do all that we can do bolster the patience and discipline of the Pilgrims around us. As the holiday season approaches, and we all consume too much food on Thursday, we’re reminded that the survivors of the Atlantic crossing were largely children — steeped in optimism and certainly blessed with the most formidable long term expectations. Plymouth would be significantly influenced by the children. A foundation of optimism and sharing erupts when we invest like children.

And for that, we’re thankful. Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody!

Companies of Interest: Value Line

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.1% — pretty much in line with the 5.6% for the Value Line 1700.

Materially Stronger: Southwest Airlines (LUV), Restaurant Brands (QSR), Cintas (CTAS)

Materially Weaker: Frontline (FRO), WestJet Airlines (WJA-TO), Bristow Group (BRS), Copa Holdings (CPA), U.S. Ecology (ECOL), Clean Harbors (CLH), Huron Consulting Group (HURN)

Discontinued: ConWay (CNW)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.6%, unchanged from last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (11/27/2015)

  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) & Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
  • Fiesta Restaurants (FRGI) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
  • Darden Restaurants (DRI) & Union Pacific (UNP) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
  • Huron Consulting Group (HURN) — Lowest P/FV (S&P)
  • Golar LNG (GLNG) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
  • Copa Holdings (CPA) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
  • Ryder System ( R ) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)

Note: The price targets from Goldman Sachs (GS) are from public releases and represent a partial sample. The price target is logged as of the most recent public analyst report. Although every effort is made to keep this information as current as possible, some of the ratings may not reflect more recent research and updates. Some of the older Goldman Sachs estimates (>6-9 months) have been adjusted using more recent price targets from Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley etc.

 

Black Friday: LIVE at the Forum

Avoid the Madness of Crowds and the arm bar take downs while jostling for those three dirt cheap (and soon to be out-of-stock) LCD displays and share some time with your investing friends instead.

Note: For Manifest Investing subscribers and trial participants. You can start a 30-day FREE trial by creating an account at http://www.manifestinvesting.com

We’ll “man” this folder continuously through the day — with a break for a Murder Mystery with the family at 1 PM ET — starting at 8 AM ET. It’ll be like “Open Microphone, Open Keyboard” but at a slower pace.

  • What’s On Your Mind?
  • What topic would you like to explore? Need some link references?
  • Is there a stock that we should we studying collectively?
  • Did you find the 50 Best Small Companies helpful? Did you study/buy any of them?

The format will be “almost live.” You may either post your questions in this folder or email topics/questions to manifest@manifestinvesting.com and we’ll post answers, links, follow up questions right here on the Forum.

You may also tweet questions and topic requests to: @manifestinvest “Follow me!”

Black Friday Event: Live At The Forum November 27, 2015 at 8 AM ET

Bring your questions and topics to the Forum on Black Friday. Any thoughts on the Best Small Companies or any stocks of interest that we should collectively be taking a look at? Click in and let us know what’s on your mind.  Note: For Manifest Investing subscribers and trial participants. You can start a 30-day FREE trial by creating an account at http://www.manifestinvesting.com

November Round Table November 30, 2015 at 8:30 PM ET ONLINE

Stocks likely to be discussed: TBD

Registration: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5522647165700089346

Mark your calendar and save the date for our monthly discussion of actionable stock ideas.

If you have a stock or topic for discussion, please let us know.

Successful Stock Selection

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This Week at MANIFEST (11/20/2015)

Success is a journey, not a destination. — Anonymous

“There are no secrets to success. It is a result of preparation, hard work … and learning from failure.” — Colin Powell

We’re better when we learn together. Success is better when experienced with your friends (and family.)

The contestants in this year’s NAIC Mid-Michigan chapter’s stock selection challenge faced the same difficult market as everybody else. The difference is that half of the entries scrapped and clawed to outperform the market over the trailing twelve months. And their consensus selections from one year ago BEAT THE MARKET for the 12th time in 13 years.

Taking home the gold for 2014-2015 was the FEMME$ Investment Club of Flint, Michigan. Their winning selections are shown here:

Consensus Favorites for 2015-2016

Yes, it’s a game. But it bears repeating. The consensus selections from this group of like-minded investors has beaten the S&P 500 in 12 of the last 13 years. Those selections — and we’d argue, formidable shopping list — are shown in the following dashboard.

https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/mid-mich-your-favorites-2015-2016