Ten Years … Gone “Hog Wild”

This started with the top trailing 10-year performers from the S&P 500, which is cool — and at least they got that going for them. But we know the virtues of All-of-the-Above investing, which means the Value Line 1700 list is even cooler. Look what Groundhog Nation did with them.

Carl Quintanilla (CNBC) provided this list of the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 since the market low ten years ago.

It’s been fun and rewarding for many. Take note how many of these have been covered and/or resident in our model portfolios, etc. since then.

Who did we miss? Why?

Spy top 50 performers since 2009 20190308

So what were you doing when the “Great” Recession bottomed on March 9, 2009? CNBC got this whole this started with the S&P 500 but we know that even better opportunity manifests in the Value Line 1700 — and we weren’t disappointed.

There are 1200 stocks with stock price data for 3/9/2009 and 3/8/2019, ten years later. Investing $100 into each of these 1200 ($120,000) would worth $1,012,892 this past weekend — an annualized total return of 23.8%. Sorry, Carl Quintanilla, but the S&P 500 checks in at 17.3%.

  • The annualized total return (10 years) on the Wilshire 5000 (VTSMX) is 17.5%. 655 of the 1200 stocks (54.6%) beat the market. This collective of gainers have an average quality ranking of 69.
  • 1138-of-1200 (94.8%) gained and a have a current value greater than $100. The stocks that lost ground have an average quality ranking of 27.
  • The top performing decile has a sales growth forecast of 9.2%. The bottom decile stands with a 5.3% growth forecast.
  • If the Value Line Arithmetic Average were “investable,” the annualized total return was 19.7% as 999.30 advanced to 6046.07 during the time period. All-of-the-Above Investing works.

Gone Hog Wild (March 2009)

Every year we run a stock picking contest that starts on Groundhog Day and continues until the next Groundhog Day. Back in March 2009, we featured the most-frequently selected stocks as something of a screening exercise. As the accompanying image shows, yes, Virginia, the average return forecast was “north” of 20% at the time.

The Sweet 16 stocks featured back in March 2009 generated a return of 21.2%.

The top performer was the swing-for-the-fences selection of Sigma Designs (SIGM) and every once in a while, Casey does not always strike out. 36.6% can be a wonderful thing. But the rest of the field was also formidable and include a number of community favorites (Manifest Investing 40 residents).

Sweet 16 (3/1/2009) Results — Ten Years Later. As shown the collective performance of the (16) selections known as “Heavy Hogs” delivered a 21.2% annualized total return. Dividends are included. We can’t help but note the strong performance from the companies at the top of the 10-year-old screening results vs. the achievements of some nearer the bottom. Quality Systems (QSII) morphed into NextGen Healthcare (NXGN). [Editor’s Note: If we’d only listened to Cy Lynch and WellCare Health Plans (WCG) at the time, +44.1%.] Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) was acquired by Arby’s after a considerable gain. Navellier Fundamental (NFMAX) evolved into a private wrap offering, results shown are from Navellier fact sheet (https://navellier.com/files/3815/4964/8534/fundamental-a-factsheet.pdf).

 

Invest With Your Friends.  The journey can be a most informative, rewarding and entertaining adventure.

 

Start a test drive (trial subscription) at http://www.manifestinvesting.com ($79/year, group discounts for club partners and educators) and participate in the next ten years of going “Hog Wild.”

Questions?

Contact Mark Robertson via markr@manifestinvesting.com or via Twitter by reaching out to @manifestinvest.  Manifest Investing also maintains a “slipstream blog” at Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/manifestinvesting/  Comments and inquiries welcome.

 

Trucking In Tulsa (3/10/2017)

This Week at MANIFEST (3/10/2017)

Common Sense, Care Of Catoosa

“If you want to be successful, it’s just this simple. Know what you are doing. Love what you are doing. And believe in what you are doing.” — Will Rogers

No, I haven’t forgotten that the trucking and logistics stocks are in Issue 2 and that this week’s update centers on Issue 4 — home to many healthcare and aerospace/defense stocks.

It’s just that a significant number of hours sharing lanes with Knight Transportation, Swift, Old Dominion and a number of CVS Health semis provides some time for pondering while en route on Route 66 to the Port of Catoosa. (Tulsa)

Ken Kavula and I were met in Catoosa by a throng of committed long term investors and we greatly enjoyed spending the weekend with them. Ken did his travel research on the Issue 1 airlines and perhaps he can explain Buffett’s sudden interest in the group, but that’s a topic for another day. Probably.

We took a stroll through 70 years of investing better — together. Some rules and guidelines were reinforced. Others were disturbingly challenged. We were reminded how the Tin Cup model portfolio handled the 2007-2008 market challenge and wondered why we spend so much time worrying about asset allocation (shifting to cash equivalents when the market seems overpriced.) Our subscribers fondly remember our 2008 open letter to the Presidential candidates: An Open Letter To The President.

Is the market over priced? What if it’s not? Recall those surging estimates for S&P 500 earnings from the analysts a few weeks ago. If they’re right about 2018, 2019 and beyond …

If the accompanying chart isn’t “haunting” or reinforcing — it probably ought to be.

And in that spirit, we think it probably makes sense to keep doing what we always do … INVEST IN THE BEST, but only when they’re on sale. We’ve never seen a moment where we couldn’t find several worthy stocks. If we ever do, we’ll start worrying about electric fences.

“With a sufficiently long term perspective, bear markets become blips.” — Cy Lynch

Thanks, Catoosa.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

Round Table Stocks

Best Small Companies

(None)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (3/10/2017)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 1.9% vs. 2.9% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Community Health (CYH), Regeneron Pharma (REGN), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Anthem (ANTM), Envision Health (EVHC)

Materially Weaker: Tenet Healthcare (THC), Quality Systems (QSII)

Discontinued: Clarcor (CLC), Tessera Tech (TSRA)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 2.9%, down from 3.0% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (3/10/2017)

There continues to be evidence of strengthening fundamentals and 1-year price targets are getting adjusted upward, on balance. Many of the biotech and pharma companies are showing the damage — and resultant higher return forecasts — as a result of “bashing” and criticism from inside the Beltway.

Based on the near term expectations for Round Table selection MEDNAX (MD), it will be interesting to see if we’re truly “early” and/or if we catch a wave as the S&P and Morningstar and Goldman Sachs analysts catch up with us. [Grin] […and Hope]

The Long & Short. (March 10, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five (3/10/2017)

Fave Five (3/10/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.1%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A)
  • Silicon Motion Tech (SIMO)
  • Synaptics (SYNA)
  • Under Armour (UA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (March 10, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is -1.0% since inception. (The absolute rate of return is 16.2%.) 44.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (2/17/2017)

Fave Five (2/17/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 6.8%.

It’s interesting that these five are essentially uncovered by S&P with respect to price targets (long and short). All five stocks are already in the tracking portfolio.

The Fave Five This Week

  • BT Group (BT)
  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • STERIS (STE)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (February 17, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.8% since inception. 48.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (2/10/2017)

Fave Five (2/10/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 6.8%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • BT Group (BT)
  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • QUALCOMM (QCOM)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (February 10, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.9% since inception. 50.2% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (2/3/2017)

Fave Five (2/3/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.0%.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • QUALCOMM (QCOM)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • Transdigm Group (TDG)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (February 3, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.0% since inception. 46.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (1/27/2017)

Fave Five (1/27/2017)

Our Fave Five generally represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The median 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

This week we spend a few moments with John Kimmel of Wichita, Kansas. John is currently the front runner in the individual category with a +67% return — as a co-conspirator with his Long-Term Investment Club colleagues — and in the institutional category for his Brookfield Digest newsletter.

This domination of the Groundhog field is unprecedented.

In his words: I think biotech should recover further into the year if President Trump and Congress are not too unfavorable. Maybe the worst is priced in. Haven’t bought Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) or Under Armour (UAA) but the numbers look good enough I want to get my clubs to study for possible purchase. My “bench” which I own are Air Lease (AL), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), FaceBook (FB), LKQ Corp. (LKQ), & Opko Health (OPK). [John’s club was one of the clubs that shared the “light” when it came to Bio-Reference Labs and decided to hold OPK after the transaction.] Another six are speculative, some of which have the possibility of maybe pulling off an FCX. One can hope.

As a reminder of what FCX has done over the last year:

Yes, Virginia, that’s a 250% gain. John and his colleagues selected different portfolios for all three categories in this year’s contest and every single selection has positive gains with the vast majority beating the market.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 27, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +4.4% since inception. 48.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five