Fave Five

Fave Five: Triple Play (3/3/2017)

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Fave Five (3/3/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 6.9%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Abbvie (ABBV)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • Polaris (PII)
  • Proto Labs (PRLB)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (March 3, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.3% since inception. 53.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (2/24/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (2/24/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 6.9%.

We usually limit the search results to good or excellent quality stocks, but we occasionally remove the shackles. We do it less often when return forecasts are near historical lows … but nonetheless, this “bottom fishing” gives us some positions to monitor that we’d not normally explore. And we get to see how they do in the tracking portfolio. With the overall weighted-average quality high enough, we can tolerate some “adventure” in the overall jigsaw puzzle.

And lest you think we’ve lost our bearings, we still insist on a quality ranking in at least the 50th percentile. (We would probably go lower if return forecasts were higher.)

The Fave Five This Week

  • Cherokee (CHKE)
  • Medallion Financial (MFIN)
  • Opko Health (OPK)
  • SouFun (SFUN)
  • Synchronoss Technology (SNCR)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (February 24, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.3% since inception. 53.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (2/17/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , ,

Fave Five (2/17/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 6.8%.

It’s interesting that these five are essentially uncovered by S&P with respect to price targets (long and short). All five stocks are already in the tracking portfolio.

The Fave Five This Week

  • BT Group (BT)
  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • STERIS (STE)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (February 17, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.8% since inception. 48.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (2/10/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (2/10/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 6.8%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • BT Group (BT)
  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • QUALCOMM (QCOM)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (February 10, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.9% since inception. 50.2% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (2/3/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks, Uncategorized , , , , ,

Fave Five (2/3/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.0%.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • QUALCOMM (QCOM)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • Transdigm Group (TDG)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (February 3, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.0% since inception. 46.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (1/27/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (1/27/2017)

Our Fave Five generally represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The median 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

This week we spend a few moments with John Kimmel of Wichita, Kansas. John is currently the front runner in the individual category with a +67% return — as a co-conspirator with his Long-Term Investment Club colleagues — and in the institutional category for his Brookfield Digest newsletter.

This domination of the Groundhog field is unprecedented.

In his words: I think biotech should recover further into the year if President Trump and Congress are not too unfavorable. Maybe the worst is priced in. Haven’t bought Jazz Pharma (JAZZ) or Under Armour (UAA) but the numbers look good enough I want to get my clubs to study for possible purchase. My “bench” which I own are Air Lease (AL), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), FaceBook (FB), LKQ Corp. (LKQ), & Opko Health (OPK). [John’s club was one of the clubs that shared the “light” when it came to Bio-Reference Labs and decided to hold OPK after the transaction.] Another six are speculative, some of which have the possibility of maybe pulling off an FCX. One can hope.

As a reminder of what FCX has done over the last year:

Yes, Virginia, that’s a 250% gain. John and his colleagues selected different portfolios for all three categories in this year’s contest and every single selection has positive gains with the vast majority beating the market.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 27, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +4.4% since inception. 48.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (1/20/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (1/20/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.7%.

This week we place a little extra emphasis on companies with a strong long-term outlook from S&P. (See S&P Price-to-Fair Value, P/FV)

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Affiliated Managers (AMG)
  • LKQ Corp (LKQ)
  • Michael Kors (KORS)
  • Mylan Labs (MYL)
  • Perrigo (PRGO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 20, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.0% since inception. 46.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (1/13/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , , ,

Fave Five (1/13/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.0%.

This week we take a slight departure to pay homage to remarks made by Jeff Gundlach during the DoubleLine “Just Markets” webcast on Tuesday. Specifically, the macro observations included a nudge to consider equities in places like India and Japan, suggesting that U.S./Canada valuations might be getting a little steep.

Turning attention to the universe of stocks outside the U.S. & Canada, we find another “Lost Decade.” The stocks in the Morgan Stanley iShares MSCI EAFE exchange traded fund (EFA) have delivered a -0.6% return ANNUALIZED since 2007 while the Wilshire 5000 checks in at 7.3%. So we went searching for the highest ranked stocks that call an address “home” outside either Canada or the United States.

We granted Stella-Jones (SJ-TO) an exception in honor of Jeremy Grantham’s honorary timber class.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Baidu (BIDU)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • MercadoLibre (MELI)
  • Stella-Jones (SJ-TO)
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 13, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.6% since inception. 45.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (1/6/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (1/6/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.9%.

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Cerner (CERN)
  • LKQ Corp (LKQ)
  • Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO)
  • Teva Pharma (TEVA)
  • Under Armour (UAA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 6, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.4% since inception. 43.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (12/30/2016)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (12/30/2016)

The primary screening criteria is the MANIFEST Rank, our combination of return forecast and quality. By screening for companies greater than 99.44 — we’re looking at the top half of the top percentage of companies qualifying.

This week’s stock study selections are top shelf candidates — right next to the holiday elf.

For context, the average 1-year ACE total return forecast is currently 8.3% for the approximately 2400 companies in our coverage.

The Fave Five This Week: Five Ideas to Float

  • Abbvie (ABBV)
  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Silicon Motion Tech (SIMO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five (Ivory Soap Special Edition)

Fave Five: The Long & Short. (December 30, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.1% since inception. 44.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five