Fave Five: Triple Play (3/3/2017)

Fave Five (3/3/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 6.9%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Abbvie (ABBV)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • Polaris (PII)
  • Proto Labs (PRLB)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (March 3, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.3% since inception. 53.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (6/24/2016)

  British flag

We’re going Brexit shopping.  In the wake of the polling results, some European disruptions are inevitable but a 500-point drop in U.S. stock market indices is likely unwarranted.  Our weekly shopping list was restricted to the best long-term prospects this weekend — hoping for some outsized opportunities thanks to Mr. Market and pundit/media hand wringing.

Fave Five (6/24/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Polaris (PII)
  • Proto Labs (PRLB)
  • Synaptics (SYNA)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 10.8%. The median 5-year return forecast for $VLE is 5.6% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short.(June 24, 2016)Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey.Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.comS&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +2.7% since inception. 55.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

2 Guys Talk Stock (1/30/2016)

Two Guys Talk Stock

Ken Kavula and Mark Robertson share stock ideas, favorite sources of ideas and screening techniques during this Chicago event. The program is among the most popular at recent national conventions and is on the agenda for the NAIC National Convention (Washington D.C.) in May.

Favorite Resources and Screens Covered

Stocks Discussed

  • Luxoft* (LXFT)
  • Illumina (ILMN)
  • FleetCor Technologies (FLT)
  • Polaris (PII)
  • Customers Bancorp* (CUBI)
  • Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen (PLKI)
  • Mesa Labs (MLAB)

View the program via YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysi7T_FTgx0

20 Consensus Stock Selections

Here are the consensus selections from the participants in our annual stock picking contest — Groundhog X (2016) … twenty pretty good stock studies that could be worthy of a closer look.

The tracking dashboard can be accessed here: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/heavy-hogs-2016

Heavy hogs dash 20160205

Growth: Top line growth forecast.  Projected P/E: Long term P/E ratio.  Projected Yield: Long term “average” dividend yield.  Financial Strength: Consensus ranking based on Value Line, Morningstar, S&P and debt quality considerations.  EPS Stability: Relative variability of EPS trend (2009-2019).  Quality: Percentile ranking based on financial strength, EPS stability and relative growth & profitability.  PAR: Projected Annual Return for long term return forecast.

Fave Five (11/27/2015)

Fave Five

Here are five stocks that could be studied going into the weekend. They essentially represent a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

Context: The average 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) is approximately 23%.

Weekend Warriors

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave five 20151127

Successful Stock Selection

This Week at MANIFEST (11/20/2015)

Success is a journey, not a destination. — Anonymous

“There are no secrets to success. It is a result of preparation, hard work … and learning from failure.” — Colin Powell

We’re better when we learn together. Success is better when experienced with your friends (and family.)

The contestants in this year’s NAIC Mid-Michigan chapter’s stock selection challenge faced the same difficult market as everybody else. The difference is that half of the entries scrapped and clawed to outperform the market over the trailing twelve months. And their consensus selections from one year ago BEAT THE MARKET for the 12th time in 13 years.

Taking home the gold for 2014-2015 was the FEMME$ Investment Club of Flint, Michigan. Their winning selections are shown here:

Consensus Favorites for 2015-2016

Yes, it’s a game. But it bears repeating. The consensus selections from this group of like-minded investors has beaten the S&P 500 in 12 of the last 13 years. Those selections — and we’d argue, formidable shopping list — are shown in the following dashboard.

https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/mid-mich-your-favorites-2015-2016

MANIFEST – Best Small Company Preview

Screening Results (October 2015)

Best Small Company Preview

by Mark Robertson

One of the most powerful lessons we’ve learned from tracking the Forbes Best Small Company list every October is that QUALITY MATTERS. Over the long term, we want out-sized returns from our smaller, more speculative, and faster-growing companies and the best protection against the brutal downside of smaller companies is … quality.

Manifest Investing — Best Small Companies (2015)

Best Small Companies (10/8/2015). Screening results as we search for high-quality faster-growing small companies. The Forbes list will be out during October. Sorted by MANIFEST Rank (PAR & Quality) with minimum growth forecast of 12%. * – not covered in Value Line Investment Survey standard edition.

It will be interesting to see how many of the featured companies end up on the Forbes list. This is certainly a list of candidates that can bolster the overall average growth forecast of our portfolios with an average sales growth forecast of 16.3%. The average return forecast is 18.2%.

Value Line is quite a bit less exuberant with an average low total return forecast of 8.5%. Morningstar is a little more enthusiastic with an average price-to-fair value ratio (P/FV) of 85%. We take lower expectations for early stage companies with a grain of salt whenever Value Line or Morningstar are providing the analysis. S&P has an average P/FV of 82%.

The outlook for the year ahead from this group is optimistic with the ACE forecast at 24.2%, S&P at 25.3% and our Goldman Sachs benchmarking checking in at 17.6%. It’s all good.

Several of these companies have appeared on the Forbes and/or Fortune lists in the past — some actually discovered by us using those resources.

Which ones have you studied? Which ones do you own? Are any of the names new to you? Welcome to October and small company discovery. Oktoberfest is for good hunting.