Fave Five (1/20/2017)

Fave Five (1/20/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 7.7%.

This week we place a little extra emphasis on companies with a strong long-term outlook from S&P. (See S&P Price-to-Fair Value, P/FV)

For more information on joining our 11th annual Groundhog Challenge, launching 2/2/2017, as either a group or an individual investor, drop a note to markr@manifestinvesting.com.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Affiliated Managers (AMG)
  • LKQ Corp (LKQ)
  • Michael Kors (KORS)
  • Mylan Labs (MYL)
  • Perrigo (PRGO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (January 20, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +3.0% since inception. 46.4% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Look Out Below: MYL, NVO & RHI

Lookout Below

During the weekly update, the following stocks were flagged based on a decline from RSI greater than 70 (potentially overbought) to less than 70. Reminder: We use a long-term chart (monthly) for this analysis.

All of these companies should be subjected to an assertive portfolio-centered selling analysis.

  • Mylan Labs (MYL)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO)
  • Robert Half (RHI)

Lob dash 20130412

Mylan Labs (MYL)

Myl 10yr 20130412

Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Love the company … would probably want to wait for a slightly higher PAR and a clear reversal in the RSI trend.

Nvo 10yr 20130412

Robert Half (RHI)

This community favorite has had a heckuva run over the last several months. With a PAR (5.9%) less than the market average (MIPAR = 7.0%) and relatively rare RSI breaks and excursions over the last ten years, if you’re holding this high-quality (Quality Rank = 88th percentile) career and employment leader, your recent gains may be worth capturing/protecting.

Check overall portfolio return forecasts and this RSI break condition could be a tiebreaker when pondering selling candidates.

Rhi 10yr 20130412