Stocks

Fave Five (11/4/2016)

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Fave Five (11/4/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

Every year, we remind investors to focus on small company opportunities in the final quarter of the year. Tax-related selling can often provide outsized opportunities — a condition that is amplified among the faster-growing and promising smaller companies. We used to urge investors to carefully mine the Forbes List of Best Small Companies that was published in late October for 36 years. Unfortunately, Forbes discontinued the feature last year. Fret not. We’ll be out with our own list of 40 Best Small Companies soon (final edits in progress.) The 2016 collection performed very well for the second straight year.

The Fave Five This Week

This week we’re taking a detour to feature the five companies at the top of our 40 Best Small Companies for 2017. As shown here, the 2016 collection outdistanced the Wilshire 5000 by a considerable margin — beating the total stock market for the 8th time in 11 years with an excess/relative return since inception of +4.6%.

  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Mercadolibre (MELI)
  • Meridian Bioscience (VIVO)
  • Mesa Labs (MLAB)
  • Neogen (NEOG)

Context: The median S&P price to fair value ratio is 102%.

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (November 4, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +4.0% since inception. 52.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (10/28/2016)

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Fave Five (10/28/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

So you’re looking at the stocks in the top 1% of all companies according to MANIFEST Rank (Return Forecast and Quality combination) that have the lowest price-to-fair value ratios (P/FV) according to S&P. The P/FV profile for the S&P Platinum Portfolio is shown here:

The Fave Five This Week

  • Abbvie (ABBV)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Deckers (DECK)
  • LKQ Corp (LKQ)
  • Stericycle (SRCL)

Context: The median S&P price to fair value ratio is 102%.

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (October 28, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +8.7% since inception. 42.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Nordstrom (JWN)

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This is a sample stock analysis, the type of feature that we regularly share with subscribers at http://www.manifestinvesting.com  Stocks selected during our FREE/public monthly webcasts known as our Round Table have outperformed the market (Wilshire 5000) for over 5 years.  FREE test drives and trial subscriptions available. If you’d like to be added to a reminder list for future monthly Round Tables, send a request to nkavula1@comcast.net.

 

Here’s a quick look at Nordstrom (JWN). It’s a quality company, but the sagging profitability is a concern. These return forecasts should make it clear why it was “sold” from the Round Table tracking portfolio after only five months — but after it had delivered gains greater than 40%.

Note the return forecast (PAR) in the chronicle and the erosion of quality. This is also an example of a company going from forecast excess returns (pink shaded area, projected relative return) to sub-zero where the stock is projected to lag the market over the long term.

Jwn eagle 20161025

This Week at MANIFEST (10/28/2016)

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“Americans eat approximately 100 Acres of pizza every day. That’s about 350 slices per second.” Source: Pizza Fun Facts via Pizza.com

October is National Pizza Month. This observance began in October 1984, and was created by Gerry Durnell, the publisher of Pizza Today magazine. Some people observe National pizza month by consuming various types of pizzas or pizza slices, or going to various pizzerias. During the month, some pizzerias give away free pizzas or pizza slices to customers or offer reduced-price promotions. Some businesses run fundraising drives, donating proceeds of pizza sales to benefit various organizations or charities.

The acres of pizza mention took me back to a keynote speech by Ken “Mr. NAIC” Janke that he delivered to an audience of long-term investors in Chicago back in March 1996. It was entitled, The Janke Dozen and 75 Acres of Pizza (Per Day) and I saved his commentary under “Investment Club Lessons.”

At the time, our first grader did his part. Alex contributed to the national average for pizza consumption as often as we allowed him to. The staples of his diet were pizza, chicken sandwiches, pizza, macaroni & cheese, and pizza. Ken shared a number of observations including the statistic that Americans then consumed 75 acres of pizza per day. Twenty years later, we’ve apparently achieved the next digit, topping 100 acres.

Janke made another comment, in passing, that caught my attention. He pondered, thinking out loud, about the legacy of these investment education events and the various companies that he met over the years. “I became aware of some wonderful companies and investment opportunities. In fact, I suspect that a mutual fund built from the presenters and sponsoring companies would have done quite well in the long term scheme of things.”

He spent a few moments talking about the fact that the stock market had gone down a fairly significant amount on the preceding day. His point? The investment value of the four presenting companies at the event had actually gone up. He touched on one of his favorite subjects… the long-term perspective and “When to Buy Stocks.” The consistent response? “Now. Today. No, not just any stock, but solid reliable firms with solid business models, exceptional quality and good prices.”

Ken then proceeded to describe some of the companies that he found “interesting” as study candidates. The attending presenting companies (American Business Products, Libbey, Synovus and General Electric) were included by default. Ken described powerful business opportunities and excellence in management at Intel. Research and development at companies like 3M was something he always found valuable and desirable. ConAgra has positioned themselves well in their market and their management seemed to anticipate opportunity. (Think ethanol, ultimately.) Disney. Powerful franchise and solid brand recognition world wide. Their recent purchase of ABC television was an example of a well-considered delivery strategy. Motorola is a leadership company that faced some tough short-term challenges. Johnson & Johnson and Abbott Labs have good products, a good track record and good people. Hannaford Brothers, an east coast food supermarket chain, was featured in Better Investing magazine and delivered solid returns until ultimately acquired.

The S&P 500 increased by 16.6 percent in the subsequent five years. Over the same time frame, 8% of equity mutual fund managers managed to stay ahead of the market. How did the “Janke Dozen” perform? The twelve stocks gained some 35 percent.

Ken openly admitted that he had no idea how much pizza Americans would eat in the future. He did know that our analysis, patience, discipline and time-honored approach to investing would often lead us to rewarding opportunities.

Make it so. Engage the possibilities. Pass the deep dish. Shop well.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 20. Coach (COH)
  • 38. Wal-Mart (WMT)
  • 40. Costco Wholesale (COST)

Round Table Stocks

  • Coach (COH)
  • Costco Wholesale (COST)
  • Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR)
  • Fossil (FOSL)
  • Hibbett Sporting Goods (HIBB)
  • Michael Kors (KORS)
  • Nordstrom J.W. (JWN)
  • Pricesmart (PSMT)
  • Ulta Salons (ULTA)
  • Vera Bradley (VRA)

Best Small Companies

  • 9. Monro Muffler (MNRO)
  • 20. Francesca’s (FRAN)
  • 22. IMAX (IMAX)
  • 27. TUMI Holdings (TUMI)
  • 39. Five Below (FIVE)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (10/28/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 7.8% vs. 4.5% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: DSW (DSW), Iconix Brands (ICON), Ulta Salon (ULTA)

Materially Weaker: Express (EXPR), GNC Holdings (GNC), Fred’s (FRED), Rent-A-Center (RCII), Vitamin Shoppe (VSI), Perry Ellis (PERY), Monro Muffler (MNRO)

Discontinued: Mattress Firm (MFRM), Tumi Holdings (TUMI)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 4.5%, unchanged from last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (10/28/2016)

The Long & Short. (October 28, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

October Round Table October 25, 2016 at 8:30 PM ET ONLINE

Stocks Featured: TBD

The Round Table tracking portfolio has beaten the market by 3-4 percentage points over the last five years. Consider joining Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson as they share their current favorite stock study ideas.

We will be continuing the discussion of the relative return-based selling guideline for portfolio management.

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/201-round-table-october-2016

Investing: 2017 & Beyond October 29, 2016 at 9 AM ET Cincinnati, Ohio

  • Overview of Analysis (We’ll actually do a case study — walking through the analysis with exposure to our favorite resources and research.)
  • “Common Ground” – How investment clubs take care of a portfolio. We’ll review portfolio design and discuss management considerations. What is effective stock “watching?” How can we best be vigilant for opportunities and threats to our holdings?
  • “Discovery” – A demonstration of various screening resources with a look at some of our favorite resources.
  • “An Industry Study” – Taking a discovery and putting it through its paces to ensure that we’re considering (or accumulating and retaining the best of the best)
  • Let’s Talk Stocks – An interactive, audience-driven discussion of specific study ideas and case studies.

But not necessarily in that order … and we’ll likely add an emphasis on the 50 Best Small Company list.

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/202-cincinnati-investing-2017-and-beyond

Coca-Cola (KO) Shakeup

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The Perspective from Value Line

by Ian Gendler, Value Line

In this week’s newsletter, we are shining the spotlight on Coca-Cola (KO), a Dow-30 component and the world’s largest beverage company. The Georgia-based corporation produces and markets over 500 nonalcoholic beverage brands through a network of company-owned and independent bottlers/distributors, wholesalers, and retailers. It employs approximately 123,000 individuals and has a market capitalization that exceeds $175 billion.

Earnings at Coca-Cola remain under pressure. The biggest headwinds are foreign currency translation and structural changes (discussed below), which are likely to reduce pretax profits by 8%-9% and 4%, respectively, this year, The former has been particularly pronounced in Latin America, where the company generates about 20% of its operating profits. Absent these factors, the beverage giant’s performance would look more encouraging, with pretax profits likely advancing at a mid-single-digit rate in 2016.

The company continues to slim down. Coca-Cola is putting more of its bottling operations, including all of these in North America, in the hands of independent partners. This refranchising effect, which is slated to wrap up by the end of 2017, will cause sales to shrink, but Coke should emerge as a higher-margin, less capital-intensive business. What’s more, incremental savings from productivity initiatives, as well as a continued emphasis on pricing and mix, ought to support profitability.

All told, conservative investors will likely want to take a closer look here. These shares have endured a rough stretch, declining about 7% since the release of June-period financial results, but still possess a number of appealing attributes. On that note, the issue is ranked favorably for both Timeliness™ and Safety™, and offers a dividend yield that is more than 100 basis points above the Value Line median.

Ian Gendler — Value Line

Attached file: KO_VL_20161021.pdf

The Perspective From Morningstar

We plan to maintain our $44 fair value estimate for wide-moat Coca-Cola following challenging second-quarter results. Organic revenue growth of 3% was similar to first-quarter results, but the mix was much different as positive price realization and mix impact offset beverage volume growth that fell to 0% year over year. Continued emerging-market challenges, particularly in large countries such as China, look to drive the company’s top-line results short of our full-year 3.5% outlook. As such, we no longer expect recent global marketing efforts to overcome these macro challenges in the near term, and we plan to lower our full-year projection, likely in line with management’s updated forecasts for 3% organic gains.

Nonetheless, we still believe that Coke can grow its revenue about 5% annually over the long term, driven by renewed emerging market growth rates (as rising incomes lead to increasing per capita nonalcoholic beverage consumption) and continued rational pricing between the company and its competitors in developed economies.

The Perspective From S&P

S&P is the most bearish, long term, with respect to Coca-Cola, with a fair value of $26.20 as shown here.

FINANCIAL TRENDS. From 2010 to 2015, net operating revenues increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% and normalized net income rose at a 0.0% CAGR. In light of this growth, we believe that 2% to 4% annual volume growth, with cost cutting and business mix driven 4% to 6% operating income growth, will help support EPS growth in the mid- to upper-single digits over the next several years.

Fave Five (10/21/2016)

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Fave Five (10/21/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

So you’re looking at the stocks in the top 1% of all companies according to MANIFEST Rank (Return Forecast and Quality combination) that have the highest 1-year total return forecasts according to the analyst consensus estimates. (ACE)

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Lease (AL)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO)
  • Universal Display (OLED)

Context: The median 1-year return forecast (ACE) is 10.6%.

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (October 21, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +12.9% since inception. 42.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (10/14/2016)

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Fave Five (10/14/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

So you’re looking at the stocks in the top 1% of all companies according to MANIFEST Rank (Return Forecast and Quality combination) that have the highest 1-year total return forecasts according to the analyst consensus estimates. (ACE)

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s Rents (AAN)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO)
  • Universal Display (OLED)

Context: The median 1-year return forecast (ACE) is 9.9%.

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (October 14, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +9.8% since inception. 44.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

MANIFEST 40 Update (9/30/2016)

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Our MANIFEST 40 is a celebration of collective excellence in stock selection, strategy and disciplined patience.

“We have always believed that the collective decisions made by our community of long-term investors are worth huddling over … a place where ideas are born.”

The 40 stocks are something of a barometer because we know that these community favorites are not simply followed … most of them are also widely owned, with considerable diligence and vigilance.

The rate of return remains at 8.8% since inception (9/30/2005) vs. 5.8% for matching investments in the Wilshire 5000 for an excess/relative return of +3.0%. We believe that this portends success for many of our subscribers and investors.

MANIFEST 40: September 2016. Performance Results. These are the most widely followed stocks by Manifest Investing subscribers. Current leader Apple (AAPL) was added on 9/24/2009 and steadily climbed the ranks while generating a relative return of +19.1% (annualized). Figures in parentheses are the June 2016 rankings. Tracking dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/manifest-40

Quality is still solid at 90 and the overall return forecast is 9.0%, pegged to slightly outperform the Wilshire 5000 or S&P 500. The average sales growth forecast is 6.6%. Again, we’d like to see an emphasis on discovering smaller, faster-growing companies — the focus of our Discovery Club efforts. We miss smaller, less discovered, companies poised to make difference, like Bio-Reference Labs (BRLI) did.

The top performers continue to be Apple (AAPL), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), Starbucks (SBUX), and Home Depot (HD). 57.5% of the decisions have outperformed the market.

Capturing Attention: Charger

CVS Health (CVS) advanced from #34 to #29. We’ve noted that CVS has been ubiquitous on screening results for a while and collectively, you’ve noticed. Fastenal and Microsoft swapped positions in the top 5 but there are no new entries to the 40 this quarter.

The results of $100 invested into any of these positions at the time of addition can be viewed at any time at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/manifest-40

We’ll continue to hope that a few promising faster growers will penetrate a future roll call.

Novo Nordisk (NVO)

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This is a sample stock analysis, the type of feature that we regularly share with subscribers at http://www.manifestinvesting.com  Stocks selected for this monthly feature have outperformed the market (Wilshire 5000) for over 12 years.  FREE test drives and trial subscriptions available.

Solomon Select (October 2016)

Novo Nordisk (NVO)

This month we take a look at another “flavor” of repeat selections. Guest damsel Kim Butcher presented this world class leader in insulin and diabetes care during the August and September Round Table webcasts. The audience was polled and sanctioned the nomination both times.

As detailed in recent Barron’s coverage, Denmark’s Novo Nordisk (NVO), the global leader in diabetes medications, will get a new CEO in January, when company insider Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen takes the reins from his long-serving predecessor. But don’t expect the company’s strategy to change, even though increased competition and turmoil in the U.S. health-care market lately have pressured results.

NVO intends to stay the course, building on its No. 1 status in diabetes management, and expanding its drug pipeline into other lucrative areas, such as medications to fight obesity, hormone regulation and treatment of hemophilia. With a portfolio of new and more efficacious diabetes drugs, and other promising treatments in the wings, the company is likely to win back investors.

Novo Nordisk (NVO): Business Model Analysis. 9-10% top line growth has been the trend for NVO in the face of economic pressures in Europe and the long term market drivers (demographics and obesity macro trends) suggest continuing growth. Profitability has been steadily improving but will likely plateau under competitive pressures and P/E ratios in the realm of 20x seem reasonable going forward.

Growth, Profitability, Valuation

The Manifest Investing sales growth forecast for NVO is 9.2%. Value Line has a 3-5 year sales growth forecast of 10% and Morningstar “dissents” a little with 5% revenue growth expectation through 2020. The company has scaled back top line growth projections for 2016 to 5-7% and the analyst consensus expects a continuation in 2017. Novo Nordisk “should return to double-digit growth when new products reach critical mass,” says ABG Sundal Collier analyst Andrew Carlsen. But that might not happen before the end of 2018. By then, sales of new products could offset the effects of U.S. pricing pressure.

We’re using 31.0% for the projected net margin. The average net margin has been 28.2% for the period 2010-2015. Value Line has a 3-5 year projected net margin of 34.0%. The trend as shown in the accompanying profitability graphic is strong and in the right direction. Morningstar acknowledges pressures on margins but stipulates that manufacturing efficiencies and product mix will alleviate some of this.

The median P/E for the period 2008-2015 is 20.3×. We’re using 21x for the projected average P/E.

At the time of selection (10/4/2016), the stock price is $40.63, the projected annual return is 15-16%. The quality RANKING is 99 (Excellent, Top Shelf) and the financial strength rating is 94 (A+).

Points of View

The Value Line low total return forecast for NVO is approximately 12%. Morningstar has NVO with a fair value of $51 for a price-to-fair value ratio of 82%.

Last week, the company announced it would cut about 1,000 jobs from its 42,300-strong workforce to reduce costs. The move underscores Novo Nordisk’s struggle to maintain strong growth amid the competition in the insulin market, which accounts for more than half its sales. The company has a strong track record when it comes to return on research invested, comparing favorably versus Sanofi and other major pharma players. That said, the departure of the CEO and the apparent intentions to expand efforts in new insulin technologies and other frontiers could possibly mark a directional shift for the company. Value Line continues to look for expansion of the diabetes business … issue took a hit following loss of a contract with Express Scripts and lowered guidance … creating a potentially favorable entry point for patient investors.

Fave Five (10/7/2016)

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Fave Five (10/7/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

So you’re looking at the stocks in the top 1% of all companies according to MANIFEST Rank (Return Forecast and Quality combination) that have the highest 1-year total return forecasts according to the analyst consensus estimates. (ACE)

The Fave Five This Week

  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Hain Celestial (HAIN)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO)
  • Simulations Plus (SLP)

Context: The median 1-year return forecast (ACE) is 9.6%.

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (October 7, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +7.3% since inception. 44.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors