Stocks

2 Guys Talk Stock (BINC)

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We’re not sure which one is Jake and which one is Elwood, but the 2 Guys (Ken & Mark) completed the third leg (insert pirate joke here) of their mission as they rolled into Washington D.C. for the 2016 BI National Convention.

Observing that “Sweet 16” stocks in a stock search based on MANIFEST Rank > 99.44, our Ivory Soap screen … a study list of candidate companies is generated that easily dominated a good part of the hourly discussion.

Here’s the StockSearch results:

For more demonstration and discussion, investors can review the YouTube recording from the Chicago 2 Guys session via: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysi7T_FTgx0

BI National Convention Nudges

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Let’s Talk Stocks Panel

The 65th annual Better Investing National Convention got underway Thursday evening with snapshot discussions of stock ideas — a tradition that now dates back several years to Ken Kavula’s nudge at the 2008 convention in Chicago. Serving on last night’s panel were some familiar and respected long-term investors from across the country: Kim Butcher, Ann Cuneaz, Pat Donnelly, Cy Lynch, Ken Kavula and Mark Robertson. In something resembling lightning round fashion (but not covering nearly as many stocks as we did in Chicago in 2008 … more on that in a minute) the following stocks were nudged:

  • CarMax (KMX)
  • First Bancshares (FBMS)
  • Gentex (GNTX)
  • Inteliquent (IQNT)
  • Maximus (MMS)
  • MedNax (MD)
  • Simulations Plus (SLP)
  • Under Armor (UA)
  • Veeva (VEEV)
  • Walker & Dunlop (WD)
  • Wyndham Worldwide (WYN)
  • Where Food Comes From (WFCF)

This dashboard is public and is available to view at:
https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/binc-2016-stocktalk

Schaumburg/Chicago … Looking Back

The Let’s Talk Stock panel selected many more stocks back in 2008 and it’s worth looking back over the last eight years to see how we did.

Five of the companies were acquired — all of them at premiums, some of them quite lofty. Hugh McManus was responsible for a few of these market crushers, and many of us remember Genentech (DNA) fondly.

18-of-the-34 selections beat the Wilshire 5000 and the current annualized total return on the surviving 29 companies is 9.5%.

The Chicago 2008 tracking dashboard is available at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/binc-2008-stocktalk

Chicago 29 dash 20160520

Fave Five (5/20/2016)

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This weekend we celebrate decades of successful stock selection with the community of investors from NAIC Better Investing as they gather near Washington D.C. for their annual convention.  The following short list of stocks is representative of the types of study nudges that will be happening all weekend — and we’ll bring you some highlights here.  For now, here’s our weekly study batch:

Fave Five (5/20/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Gentherm (THRM)
  • Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • Under Armor (UA)

Honorable Mention: Apple (AAPL) — “Warren Buffett” bought some.

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.5%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.7% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (May 20, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +6.1% since inception. 56.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-

This Week: Stocks to Study

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This Week at MANIFEST (5/20/2016)

“If you are not willing to learn, no one can help you. If you are determined to learn, no one can stop you.”

We gather. The convention serves a unique purpose. Because connecting investors can prove to be the most valuable resource imaginable for individual investors. In that context, the national convention becomes a true investment club — centered on sharing and discovering actionable ideas and pursuing successful investing, together.

During the current Book Club review of Peter Lynch’s Beating The Street, Hugh McManus mentioned the special session with Peter Lynch at the 1998 NAIC national convention in San Jose. Lynch reviewed many of the key points covered in the book during his speech. This reference inspired me to track down a copy of Smart Money from January 1999 where Emily Harrison Ginsburg provided a story on the heritage of NAIC via Thomas O’Hara. I thought Emily mentioned Peter Lynch in the article, but on further review, I found that she hadn’t. If you’re new to the investment club movement or simply want to go on a nostalgic binge, the Smart Money feature can be found here.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

Round Table Stocks: Caterpillar (CAT), Deere (DE), Illumina (ILMN), Landauer (LDR), Masimo (MASI), Stryker

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (5/20/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 4.2% vs. 5.6% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Honda Motors (HMC), Nissan Motor (NSANY.PK), II-VI (IIVI), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Baxter (BAX), Bruker (BRKR)

Materially Weaker: Manitowoc (MTW), OSI Systems (OSIS), Navistar (NAV), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), Haemonetics (HAE), Douglas Dynamics (PLOW), Terex (TEX), Actuant (ATU)

Discontinued: Newport (NEWP), Affymetrix (AFFX), Sirona Dental (SIRO)

Coverage Initiated/Restored:

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.6%, up from 5.4% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (5/20/2016)

  • Illumina (ILMN) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
  • Honda Motor (HMC) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
  • Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
  • Honda Motor (HMC) —Lowest P/FV (S&P)
  • Cutera (CUTR) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
  • General Motors (GM) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
  • Alere (ALR) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)

The Long & Short of This Week’s Update Batch

The Long & Short. (May 20, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

May Round Table May 22, 2016 at 11 AM ET ONLINE

Stocks Featured: TBD

The Round Table tracking portfolio has beaten the market by 3-4 percentage points over the last five years. Consider joining Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch and Mark Robertson as they share their current favorite stock study ideas.

The May session will be simulcast from the NAIC Better Investing national convention near Washington D.C.

Round Table Online Registration: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8401811825391796481

Various attendance options — including single day passes — are available if you’re interested in attending the BI National Convention and the Round Table “live”: 2016 BI National Convention

Market Barometers (Continued)

Watching Rhino Walk, Not Rhino Talk. If you believe supply-and-demand matters (and you should) then the collective actions of the herd have bearing. By monitoring the relationship of new highs vs. new lows, we get an early warning clarion that signaled as Halloween 2007 approached. Current $USHL has recovered somewhat from the “test” a few months ago.

Stocks to Study (5/13/2016)

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This Week at MANIFEST (5/13/2016)

“Science and technology revolutionize our lives, but memory, tradition and myth frame our response.” – Arthur Schlesinger

“The real danger is not that computers will begin to think like men, but that men will begin to think like computers.” – Sydney Harris

This week’s update batch has a number of community favorites in the mix. The following companies are all members of the MANIFEST 40 — the most widely-followed companies by our subscribers:

  • Cognizant Technology (2)
  • Microsoft (3)
  • Oracle Corp. (16)
  • Alphabet/Google (19)
  • Wells Fargo (22)
  • Price T. Rowe (36)

Amazon (AMZN) has been an important contributor to Hugh McManus and his superior returns as a participant in the Round Table. AMZN ranks as the all-time leading selection despite that lonely selection in Chicago a few years ago. Other companies that have been featured in Round Table sessions include: Alphabet/Google (GOOG), Bank of America (BAC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), eBay (EBAY), Global Payments (GPN), Infosys Tech (INFY), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), PayPal (PYPL), Priceline (PCLN), SEI Investments (SEIC), T. Rowe Price (TROW) and Western Union (WU).

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (5/13/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 6.9% vs. 5.4% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: SLM (SLM), Priceline.com (PCLN), Western Union (WU), BlackRock (BLK), Earthlink (ELNK), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Facebook (FB), Overstock.com (OSTK), Amazon (AMZN)

Materially Weaker: Invesco (IVZ), EZCorp (EZPW)

Discontinued:

Coverage Initiated/Restored:

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.4%, unchanged from 5.4% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (5/13/2016)

  • RedHat (RHT) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
  • Citigroup ( C ) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
  • Priceline (PCLN) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
  • Priceline (PCLN) —Lowest P/FV (S&P)
  • H&R Block (HRB) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
  • Symantec (SYMC) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
  • Netflix (NFLX) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)

The Long & Short of This Week’s Update Batch

The Long & Short. (May 13, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

May Round Table May 22, 2016 at 11 AM ET ONLINE

Stocks Featured: TBD

The Round Table tracking portfolio has beaten the market by 3-4 percentage points over the last five years. Consider joining Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch and Mark Robertson as they share their current favorite stock study ideas.

The May session will be simulcast from the NAIC Better Investing national convention near Washington D.C.

Registration: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8401811825391796481

Fave Five (5/13/2016)

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Fave Five (5/13/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Gentherm (THRM)
  • Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • Under Armor (UA)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.5%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.7% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short.(May 13, 2016)Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey.Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.comS&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +0.8% since inception. 54.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Hain Celestial (HAIN) was “sold” from the tracking portfolio.

HAIN had been added on 12/28/2015 at $41.23.

The sale on 5/12/2016 at $48.06 represents a total return of 16.6% and a relative return of +16.3%.

Fave Five (5/6/2016)

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Fave Five (5/6/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Allergan (AGN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Gentherm (THRM)
  • Under Armor (UA)
  • Simulations Plus* (SLP)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.3%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.9% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (May 6, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. *1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +22.9% since inception. 55.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (4/29/2016)

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Fave Five (4/29/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Methods (AIRM)
  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Alphabet/Google (GOOG)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.3%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.4% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 29, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. *1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +15.2% since inception. 59.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (4/15/2016)

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Fave Five (4/15/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Methods (AIRM)
  • Inteliquent (IQNT)
  • Maximus (MMS)
  • Perrigo (PRGO)
  • Steris (STE)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.2%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.6% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 15, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr Rhino Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase or Morgan Stanley.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +20.2% since inception. 53.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

MANIFEST 40 (3/31/2016)

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Your Most Widely-Followed Stocks: An Update

Our MANIFEST 40 is a celebration of collective excellence in stock selection, strategy and disciplined patience.

The 40 stocks are something of a barometer because we know that these community favorites are not simply followed … most of them are also widely owned, with considerable diligence and vigilance.

MANIFEST 40 (March 2016). Performance Results. These are the most widely followed stocks by Manifest Investing subscribers. Current leader Apple (AAPL) was added on 9/24/2009 and steadily climbed the ranks while generating a relative return of +20.3% (annualized) since then. Figures in parentheses are the ranking back in December 2015.

The rate of return is 9.0% since inception (9/30/2005). Bottom line? On an annualized basis, your community favorites have beaten the Wilshire 5000 by +3.6 percentage points — a relative, or excess, return that probably portends outsized success with our actual portfolios.

Quality (90) is solid and the overall return forecast (8.9%) is positioned to outperform the Wilshire 5000. At an average sales growth forecast of 6.8%, we’d to see some faster-growing companies adopted by our community.

Capturing Attention: Chargers

Gilead Sciences (GILD) moved from #25 to #22 as most of the list remained rather steady. Visa (V) is a new addition at #40. The results of $100 positions investing in any of the Top 40 companies can be viewed at any time via the public dashboard on the home page.

“We have always believed that the collective decisions made by our community of long-term investors are worth huddling over … a place where ideas are born.”