This Week at MANIFEST (5/13/2016)
“Science and technology revolutionize our lives, but memory, tradition and myth frame our response.” – Arthur Schlesinger
“The real danger is not that computers will begin to think like men, but that men will begin to think like computers.” – Sydney Harris
This week’s update batch has a number of community favorites in the mix. The following companies are all members of the MANIFEST 40 — the most widely-followed companies by our subscribers:
- Cognizant Technology (2)
- Microsoft (3)
- Oracle Corp. (16)
- Alphabet/Google (19)
- Wells Fargo (22)
- Price T. Rowe (36)
Amazon (AMZN) has been an important contributor to Hugh McManus and his superior returns as a participant in the Round Table. AMZN ranks as the all-time leading selection despite that lonely selection in Chicago a few years ago. Other companies that have been featured in Round Table sessions include: Alphabet/Google (GOOG), Bank of America (BAC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), eBay (EBAY), Global Payments (GPN), Infosys Tech (INFY), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), PayPal (PYPL), Priceline (PCLN), SEI Investments (SEIC), T. Rowe Price (TROW) and Western Union (WU).
Results, Remarks & References
- Ultra Long Perspective (via Ritholtz)
- Now That’s A Mea Culpa, Jeremy Grantham (Various)
Companies of Interest: Value Line (5/13/2016)
The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 6.9% vs. 5.4% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).
Materially Stronger: SLM (SLM), Priceline.com (PCLN), Western Union (WU), BlackRock (BLK), Earthlink (ELNK), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Facebook (FB), Overstock.com (OSTK), Amazon (AMZN)
Materially Weaker: Invesco (IVZ), EZCorp (EZPW)
Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.4%, unchanged from 5.4% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.
Stocks to Study (5/13/2016)
- RedHat (RHT) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
- Citigroup ( C ) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
- Priceline (PCLN) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
- Priceline (PCLN) —Lowest P/FV (S&P)
- H&R Block (HRB) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
- Symantec (SYMC) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
- Netflix (NFLX) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)
The Long & Short of This Week’s Update Batch
The Long & Short. (May 13, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.
May Round Table May 22, 2016 at 11 AM ET ONLINE
Stocks Featured: TBD
The Round Table tracking portfolio has beaten the market by 3-4 percentage points over the last five years. Consider joining Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch and Mark Robertson as they share their current favorite stock study ideas.
The May session will be simulcast from the NAIC Better Investing national convention near Washington D.C.