$FLT

Fave Five (9/8/2017)

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Fave Five (9/8/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 10.6%.

Our Favorite Bubbles …

… just might be the kind of bubbles that evolve when we blend Ivory Soap with Irish Spring. Hugh McManus likes to shop for opportunities among stocks that are trading near their 52-week lows and for non-core case studies, he’ll sometimes demand that the stock prices be near multi-year lows. Part of the driver behind this is the recognition that there’s often a large difference between 52-week highs and 52-week lows, even for some of the bluer chip established stocks. Isolating opportunities to invest when stocks are in the lower part of those annual ranges would seem to provide a margin of safety and reduce some of the downside … and “all things created equal” why should we shop anywhere else. (Read that in an Irish brogue for full effect.)

The five stocks flagged this week are repeat selections for the Fave Five tracking portfolio and as the parade of second opinions shows — there’s largely some consensus about expectations. FleetCor (FLT), Starbucks (SBUX) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) also popped up as high-quality stocks with relatively outsized return potential in Ken Kavula’s review of the Forbes Most Innovative Companies. Gentex (GNTX) has also been a Round Table favorite with stellar performance over the years and Akamai Technologies (AKAM) has been featured as a worthy exploration consistent with the growing need for cyber security.

StockSearch Results using the stock screener at www.manifestinvesting.com with the following criteria: Manifest Rank (percentile ranking based on combination of quality and long term return forecast) greater than 99.44% — or top 1/2 of top percentile of all stocks covered, Financial Strength > B++ (70%) and stocks within 20% of their 52-week low.

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (September 8, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +2.3% since inception.

The absolute annualized rate of return is 15.3%.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (8/25/2017)

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Fave Five (8/25/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 10.2%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
  • Bank of the Internet (BOFI)
  • FleetCor (FLT)
  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
  • Western Gas Partners (WES)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (August 25, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.4% since inception.

The absolute annualized rate of return is 13.7%.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (6/23/2017)

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Fave Five (6/23/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 9.8%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Bank of the Internet (BOFI)
  • FleetCor Technologies (FLT)
  • Monro Muffler (MNRO)
  • Penske Auto Group (PAG)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (June 23, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.2% since inception. 45.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection. The absolute annualized rate of return is 15.3%.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (6/2/2017)

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Fave Five (6/2/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 9.7%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
  • Bank of the Internet (BOFI)
  • FleetCor Technologies (FLT)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)
  • Western Gas Partners (WES)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (June 2, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.1% since inception. 44.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Sell Michael Kors (KORS)

KORS has now dropped more than 20% more than the market (Wilshire 5000, VTSMX) since it was added via the Fave Five on 1/19/2017.

Kors relative return 20170602

Hot Seat: Deckers Outdoors (DECK)

Deckers (DECK) has performed very well since selection back on 10/27/2016, beating the Wilshire 5000 by +27.3% but it lands on the “hot seat” by virtue of its torrid performance.

Fave five worksheet 20170601

The decision is made “to take the money and run” and sell Deckers (DECK) based on this audit of current conditions.

Deck analysis 20170601

Fave Five (5/26/2017)

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Perils of Bottom Fishing?

Fave Five (5/26/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 9.6%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Bank of the Internet (BOFI)
  • FleetCor Technologies (FLT)
  • Monro Muffler (MNRO)
  • Orchids Paper Products (TIS)
  • Stamps.com (STMP)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (May 26, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.8% since inception. 45.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

We had several stocks sold, stopping out on relative return less than -20% for non-core stocks in the tracking portfolio:

  • AmTrust Financial (AFSI)
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI)
  • Horizon Pharma (HZNP)
  • Opko Health (OPK)

Afsi relative 20170526

Fave Five (5/12/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (5/12/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 9.1%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Lease (AL)
  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
  • FleetCor (FLT)
  • Skechers (SKX)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (May 12, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +2.0% since inception. 46.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (4/28/2017)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (4/28/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.6%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Lease (AL)
  • Fleet Cor (FLT)
  • Monster Beverages (MNST)
  • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 28, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +2.3% since inception. (The absolute rate of return is 17.1%.) 47.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five: Triple Play (4/14/2017)

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Fave Five (4/14/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 8.8%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Lease (AL)
  • FleetCor (FLT)
  • LKQ (LKQ)
  • Synaptics (SYNA)
  • Synchronoss Tech (SNCR)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 14, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +1.0% since inception. 49.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (11/11/2016)

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Fave Five (11/11/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • FleetCor (FLT)
  • Gildan Activewear (GIL)
  • Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (RMCF)
  • Silicon Motion (SIMO)
  • STERIS (STE)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (November 11, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative/excess return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +4.5% since inception. 50.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Stocks to Study (5/13/2016)

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This Week at MANIFEST (5/13/2016)

“Science and technology revolutionize our lives, but memory, tradition and myth frame our response.” – Arthur Schlesinger

“The real danger is not that computers will begin to think like men, but that men will begin to think like computers.” – Sydney Harris

This week’s update batch has a number of community favorites in the mix. The following companies are all members of the MANIFEST 40 — the most widely-followed companies by our subscribers:

  • Cognizant Technology (2)
  • Microsoft (3)
  • Oracle Corp. (16)
  • Alphabet/Google (19)
  • Wells Fargo (22)
  • Price T. Rowe (36)

Amazon (AMZN) has been an important contributor to Hugh McManus and his superior returns as a participant in the Round Table. AMZN ranks as the all-time leading selection despite that lonely selection in Chicago a few years ago. Other companies that have been featured in Round Table sessions include: Alphabet/Google (GOOG), Bank of America (BAC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), eBay (EBAY), Global Payments (GPN), Infosys Tech (INFY), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), PayPal (PYPL), Priceline (PCLN), SEI Investments (SEIC), T. Rowe Price (TROW) and Western Union (WU).

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (5/13/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 6.9% vs. 5.4% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: SLM (SLM), Priceline.com (PCLN), Western Union (WU), BlackRock (BLK), Earthlink (ELNK), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Facebook (FB), Overstock.com (OSTK), Amazon (AMZN)

Materially Weaker: Invesco (IVZ), EZCorp (EZPW)

Discontinued:

Coverage Initiated/Restored:

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.4%, unchanged from 5.4% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (5/13/2016)

  • RedHat (RHT) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
  • Citigroup ( C ) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
  • Priceline (PCLN) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
  • Priceline (PCLN) —Lowest P/FV (S&P)
  • H&R Block (HRB) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
  • Symantec (SYMC) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
  • Netflix (NFLX) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)

The Long & Short of This Week’s Update Batch

The Long & Short. (May 13, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

May Round Table May 22, 2016 at 11 AM ET ONLINE

Stocks Featured: TBD

The Round Table tracking portfolio has beaten the market by 3-4 percentage points over the last five years. Consider joining Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch and Mark Robertson as they share their current favorite stock study ideas.

The May session will be simulcast from the NAIC Better Investing national convention near Washington D.C.

Registration: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8401811825391796481