Round Table (July 2018)

Our Round Table … is a free monthly webcast that celebrated its 8th anniversary on 7/31/2018.  The concept is simple. Contributors share their best current actionable ideas. Rinse. Repeat. Beat the market. The rate of return for the tracking portfolio (since inception) is 18.2% — topping the Wilshire 5000 by 5.5 percentage points.  The monthly sessions are sponsored by the NAIC Mid-Michigan chapter and Manifest Investing and stock selections/analysis and portfolio stewardship is demonstrated by a number of community participants who have successful stock selection experience and superior performance.

Round Table (July 2018)

The rate of return for the Round Table tracking portfolio stands at 18.2% over the last 8.0 years.

Our July Round Table celebrated our 8th anniversary. It all started with, “Sure … a monthly demonstration of WHAT WE DO would be great … but NO COSTUMES!” — Ken ‘Party Wrecker’ Kavula.  (July 2010)

So no costumes. Occasional hats.

Frequent solid ideas for further study.

 

Stocks featured during the July session included Cognizant Technology (CTSH) — our most frequently selected stock over the trailing eight years, Coherent (COHR), Ionis Pharma (IONS) and Skechers (SKX).  The audience selected Coherent (COHR).

The slides used during the session are available on request via Mark Robertson (markr@manifestinvesting.com).

The video archive is available via YouTube at Round Table — July 2018 If you’d like to be notified whenever videos are uploaded to this channel, subscribe using the button on the page.

Green Room, References Mentioned …

IPG Photonics (IPGP) took quite a hit in trading on Tuesday with the price dropping approximately 26% during the day. See Why IPG Is Falling Hard (Brian Feroldi, Motley Fool) for more information on the situation. The drop would have been enough to dislodge IPGP as the best performing stock from 2016 if Tuesday’s price action were included. We noted that Mark’s selection of Mercadolibre (MELI) would be the new leader for active holdings from 2016.

Signature Bank (SBNY) appeared at the top of the “Closest to 52-Week Low” screen used during the session. Investors are reminded that Eddy Elfenbein of Crossing Wall Street follows SBNY fairly closely as a component of his current Buy List and a number of play-by-play commentaries can be found there. Go to the site and search by ticker (SBNY) if you’re interested in a plethora of features regarding Signature Bank.

Attophysics defined.

One of the books mentioned during the session was Factfulness by Hans Rosling. I’m sure that we’ll be talking more about this in coming weeks and months. For more on this, check out the Forum Post by Sunil Veluvali

The Basics of Tariffs and Trade Barriers (Investopedia)

Links to Challenge Stock Audits:

None of the challenge stocks were sold but we dialed up vigilance on Cambrex (CBM) if the price continues to run in the absence of a robust increase in fundamental expectations.

The tracking portfolio (dashboard) can be found at https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/round-table

 

 

Fave Five (5/12/2017)

Fave Five (5/12/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 9.1%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Lease (AL)
  • Akamai Technologies (AKAM)
  • FleetCor (FLT)
  • Skechers (SKX)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (May 12, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +2.0% since inception. 46.9% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five