This Week at MANIFEST (11/27/2015)
From All of Us to All of You, Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody!
Thanksgiving dinners take eighteen hours to prepare. They are consumed in twelve minutes. Half-times take twelve minutes. This is not coincidence. — Erma Bombeck
I can’t believe that I watched a Charlie Brown/Peanuts Thanksgiving for the first time last night. I’m not sure how that escaped me because a Charlie Brown Christmas is an annual event … and I’ve been known to spend some time in the Pumpkin Patch over the years.
It did serve as a reminder of the arduous voyage made by the Pilgrims across the Atlantic. In cramped quarters, the trip took three months on the Mayflower … and Charles Schultz laid out the cast in terms of crew, Pilgrims and “Strangers.” The term stranger was applied to those were “along for the ride” but not affiliated with the Pilgrim plight nor quest. Until recently, guests to the English Parliament were still referred to as strangers and their seating area known as the Stranger Gallery.
In our community, we celebrate those who invest with a true long-term perspective and frankly, everybody else seems a little strange. (Grin) As David Gardner pointed out recently, the phrase “long-term investing” is a tautology. It’s a mosh of redundancy because by definition, investing is long term.
Ken Kavula and I spent Monday night with another accomplished investment club of 26 years or more (and last Saturday with a couple of 55-year-old clubs) and we marvel at how most clubs welcome Strangers — those who seek the rewards and refuge from the storm … and they do “investing” with friends.
The journey is arduous and although we pay attention to short term influences on trends, we pay more attention to the long-term perspective and do all that we can do bolster the patience and discipline of the Pilgrims around us. As the holiday season approaches, and we all consume too much food on Thursday, we’re reminded that the survivors of the Atlantic crossing were largely children — steeped in optimism and certainly blessed with the most formidable long term expectations. Plymouth would be significantly influenced by the children. A foundation of optimism and sharing erupts when we invest like children.
And for that, we’re thankful. Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody!
Companies of Interest: Value Line
The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.1% — pretty much in line with the 5.6% for the Value Line 1700.
Materially Stronger: Southwest Airlines (LUV), Restaurant Brands (QSR), Cintas (CTAS)
Materially Weaker: Frontline (FRO), WestJet Airlines (WJA-TO), Bristow Group (BRS), Copa Holdings (CPA), U.S. Ecology (ECOL), Clean Harbors (CLH), Huron Consulting Group (HURN)
Discontinued: ConWay (CNW)
Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.6%, unchanged from last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.
Stocks to Study (11/27/2015)
- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) & Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
- Fiesta Restaurants (FRGI) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
- Darden Restaurants (DRI) & Union Pacific (UNP) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
- Huron Consulting Group (HURN) — Lowest P/FV (S&P)
- Golar LNG (GLNG) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
- Copa Holdings (CPA) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
- Ryder System ( R ) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)
Note: The price targets from Goldman Sachs (GS) are from public releases and represent a partial sample. The price target is logged as of the most recent public analyst report. Although every effort is made to keep this information as current as possible, some of the ratings may not reflect more recent research and updates. Some of the older Goldman Sachs estimates (>6-9 months) have been adjusted using more recent price targets from Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley etc.
Black Friday: LIVE at the Forum
Avoid the Madness of Crowds and the arm bar take downs while jostling for those three dirt cheap (and soon to be out-of-stock) LCD displays and share some time with your investing friends instead.
Note: For Manifest Investing subscribers and trial participants. You can start a 30-day FREE trial by creating an account at http://www.manifestinvesting.com
We’ll “man” this folder continuously through the day — with a break for a Murder Mystery with the family at 1 PM ET — starting at 8 AM ET. It’ll be like “Open Microphone, Open Keyboard” but at a slower pace.
- What’s On Your Mind?
- What topic would you like to explore? Need some link references?
- Is there a stock that we should we studying collectively?
- Did you find the 50 Best Small Companies helpful? Did you study/buy any of them?
The format will be “almost live.” You may either post your questions in this folder or email topics/questions to firstname.lastname@example.org and we’ll post answers, links, follow up questions right here on the Forum.
You may also tweet questions and topic requests to: @manifestinvest “Follow me!”
Black Friday Event: Live At The Forum November 27, 2015 at 8 AM ET
Bring your questions and topics to the Forum on Black Friday. Any thoughts on the Best Small Companies or any stocks of interest that we should collectively be taking a look at? Click in and let us know what’s on your mind. Note: For Manifest Investing subscribers and trial participants. You can start a 30-day FREE trial by creating an account at http://www.manifestinvesting.com
November Round Table November 30, 2015 at 8:30 PM ET ONLINE
Stocks likely to be discussed: TBD
Mark your calendar and save the date for our monthly discussion of actionable stock ideas.
If you have a stock or topic for discussion, please let us know.