Morningstar Investment Conference (2016)

“I see investing as the responsible act of the broad middle class, yet there’s still so many people we don’t touch today.” — Don Phillips, Morningstar

The annual shareholder meeting of Berkshire Hathaway has been called the Woodstock of capitalism, drawing tens of thousands of investors from all over the world.

I think the Morningstar Investment Conference might be “bigger” than the annual pilgrimage to Omaha.

Really? Yes, really. On a per capita basis, comparing the number of investors in Omaha versus the over 2000 advisors and practitioners in Chicago, the Morningstar Investment Conference, or #MICUS, might be a bigger “show.” Before you scoff, consider the population of registered advisors and representatives vs. how many attend. Morningstar puts on an effective event and while you’re scratching your head over the per capita comparison, don’t forget there’s an admission price for the Chicago program.

Make no mistake. Don Phillips and the Morningstar gang throw one heckuva party. We’re reminded about rampant fallacies with respect to passive vs. active investing, a growing discovery and emphasis on sustainability, the mistaken generalizations about advisors vs. registered reps, the new DOL fiduciary regulations and a litany of topics worthy of consideration and discussion.

• “Supporting responsible investing is actually more closely related to behavior modification.” — Don Phillips

• We’ve been fans of the Morningstar MOAT Fund for some time. Microsoft’s acquisition of LinkedIn (LNKD) provides quite a boost to the fund’s value in recent days. The merits of LinkedIn — and investment thesis — were covered by Morningstar’s Elizabeth Collins during an early panel session.

• Best Ideas: Biogen (BIIB) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM). (Elizabeth Collins)

• “Global growth over last four years has been slower … but it’s actually closer to long-term norms.” Prevalent themes: persistent strong U.S. dollar, U.S. treasury yields not justified and some scattered opportunities in emerging markets. (Michael Hasenstab, Franklin Templeton)

• “Investors should not use a shot gun approach with respect to emerging markets. Use a rifle instead.” (Hasenstab)

• Reminiscent of a couple of previous Morningstar conferences, Bill Bernstein served as this year’s “Grumpy Old Man” but he seems to agree with many of us on many issues. But he’s a delightful curmudgeon.

• “The case for index and passive investing has been dramatically overstated.” (Phillips)

• “Alternative funds are not an investment. They are a compensation scheme.” (Bernstein) [Told you …]

• What hasn’t been overstated? The cleavage between high-cost and low-cost. (Phillips, Bernstein)

• “I pride myself on not knowing what stocks are in my portfolios. I’m a Quant.” (Cliff Asness, AQR)

• I respect and enjoy the work of Rob Arnott (Research Affiliates) and Cliff Asness (AQR). But watching them debate like sumo wrestlers trying to give each other a wedgie in a cage match on the head of a pin is not my favorite post-breakfast activity. I’m glad they believe in “Tin Cup”, grant permission for us to “sin a little” with asset allocation and speculation and I now have a greater appreciation for Smart/Strategic Beta and I’m thankful that at it’s core — we have been doing a lot of the factor-based opportunity stuff for a long time. But most of all, I’m grateful for the elegant simplicity of our methods. It’s a powerful reminder about Occam’s Razor.

(Continuing with our regularly scheduled programming and weekly update …)

MANIFEST 40 Updates

• 9. Cisco Systems (CSCO)
• 10. Qualcomm (QCOM)
• 12. Walgreen Boots (WBA)
• 37. CVS Health (CVS)
• 40. LKQ Corp (LKQ)

Round Table Stocks: Cisco Systems (CSCO), CVS Health (CVS), Gentex (GNTX), Inteliquent (IQNT), ITC Holdings (ITC), LKQ Corp (LKQ), Neustar (NSR), Qualcomm (QCOM), Synaptics (SYNA)

Results, Remarks & References

• Emerging Markets Opportunities (Michael Hasenstab, Franklin Templeton)
• Morningstar Conference Features (Morningstar)
• CWS Market Review – 6/17/2015 MSFT & BBBY (Eddy Elfenbein)
• Are Money Managers Creating Too Many Products? (Wall Street Journal)
• Weight by Fundamentals (Rob Arnott, Research Affliliates & Charles Rotblut, AAII)

Companies of Interest: Value Line (6/17/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.6% vs. 5.5% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Infinera (INFN), Drew Industries (DW)

Materially Weaker: American Movil (AMX), Synaptics (SYNA), Titan (TWI), Dish Network (DISH)

Discontinued: Time Warner Cable (TWC), Cleco (CNL), Fuel Systems Solutions (FSYS)

Coverage Initiated/Restored:

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.6%, unchanged from 5.6% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Breaking.

Guggenheim has reinstated the S&P Small- and Mid-Cap equally-weighted funds: EWSC and EWMC

For a complete list of Guggenheim ETFs, see:

http://gi.guggenheiminvestments.com/products

Market Barometers (Continued)

In honor of this week’s Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, their weekly determination of stock prices in general vs. the “fair value” for the overall stock market.

Stocks to Study (6/17/2016)

• LKQ Corp (LKQ) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
• Neustar (NSR) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
• Borg Warner (BWA) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
• Arris Group (ARRS) —Lowest P/FV (S&P)
• China Auto Systems (CAAS) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
• Juniper Networks (JNPR) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
• Verifone Systems (PAY) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)

The Long & Short of This Week’s Update Batch

The Long & Short. (June 17, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.