Author: expectingalpha

Fave Five (2/19/2016)

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Fave Five (2/19/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week: Stifel Financial (SF), Astronics (ATRO), Aaron’s (AAN), Argan* (AGX) and Inteliquent (IQNT).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 27.0%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 9.0% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Number of analysts covering in parentheses.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +1.6% since inception. 54.1% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (2/12/2016)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (2/12/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week: Stifel Financial (SF), Oceaneering Intl (OII), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), The Ensign Group* (ENSG) and Biogen IDEC (BIIB).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 26.4%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 10.4% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +1.4% since inception. 55.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Annual Super Bowl Poll (2016)

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It’s time for our annual Super Bowl survey. Hit REPLY and tell us who you know is going to win Super Bowl 50.

Once again, there’s not a clear “old NFL” team again this year. A victory by the nearly undefeated National Conference champion Carolina Panthers (17-1) would be “most like” an OLD NFL victory … so investors across this nation probably ought to be in the Panther camp. The Broncos are clearly on old AFL team and the stock market is vulnerable to a Super correction at some point.

So sorry, Peyton Manning fans — a Denver victory would not be good according to the Super Bowl stock market indicator

We’re 6-for-10 having mistakenly selected the Seahawks (77%) over the Patriots (23%) last year.

Our Selections

XLIX: Seattle Seahawks (Super Bowl won by New England Patriots)
XLVIII: Denver Broncos (Super Bowl won by Seattle Seahawks)
XLVII: San Francisco 49ers (Super Bowl won by Baltimore Ravens)
XLVI: New York Giants (defeated the New England Patriots)
XLV: Green Bay Packers (defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers)
XLIV: New Orleans Saints (defeated the Indianapolis Colts)
XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers (defeated the Arizona Cardinals)
XLII: New England Patriots (Super Bowl won by New York Giants)
XLI: Indianapolis Colts (defeated the Chicago Bears)
XL: Pittsburgh Steelers (defeated the Seattle Seahawks)

20 Consensus Stock Selections

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Here are the consensus selections from the participants in our annual stock picking contest — Groundhog X (2016) … twenty pretty good stock studies that could be worthy of a closer look.

The tracking dashboard can be accessed here: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/heavy-hogs-2016

Heavy hogs dash 20160205

Growth: Top line growth forecast.  Projected P/E: Long term P/E ratio.  Projected Yield: Long term “average” dividend yield.  Financial Strength: Consensus ranking based on Value Line, Morningstar, S&P and debt quality considerations.  EPS Stability: Relative variability of EPS trend (2009-2019).  Quality: Percentile ranking based on financial strength, EPS stability and relative growth & profitability.  PAR: Projected Annual Return for long term return forecast.

Fave Five (2/5/2016)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (2/5/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are PRA Group* (PRAA), Astronics (ATRO), Inteliquent (IQNT), and Aaron’s (AAN).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 25.8%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 9.2% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +1.3% since inception. 50.0% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Groundhog Excellence (2015)

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Groundhog Challenge IX Results (2015)

“The groundhog is like most other prophets; it delivers its prediction and then disappears.” — Bill Vaughn

That’s the case with many of the talking heads we see on the media at places like CNBC. Rarely do they keep score. Rarely do they make the observation that some of the pundits are like stopped clocks.

We choose not to have that luxury at Manifest Investing. We keep track of results, charting relative return (excess return vs. market index benchmarks) over time. We’re here — as a community — for the returns.

The bottom line is that nine years of the Groundhog Challenge have yielded an aggregate annualized total return of 7.6% versus mirroring investments in the Wilshire 5000 that have delivered 5.2%.

And that’s after a particularly challenging year.

Join us for a FREE webcast on Saturday morning while we review the results and share ideas for 2016 and beyond.

When: Saturday, February 6 at 10 AM ET.

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/189-groundhog-ix-gala-revue

Groundhog Challenge X (2016)

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As the National Football League tosses out their Roman numeral system for #50, we embrace our 10th annual Groundhog Challenge with Roman numeral “X”.

We hold certain truths to be self-evident.

That most of us like to sleep at night.

That most of us believe in Occam’s Razor.

Most of us marvel at the performance of a relatively-passive model portfolio like our Bare Naked Million

We also pay homage to Eddy Elfenbein and his decade of market-beating performance with his Buy List from Crossing Wall Street. Other dignitaries like Abby Cohen, Warren Buffett and Jim Cramer are included just for fun … it’s like playing against the “house.”

We’ll once again keep it simple for Groundhog X (2016).

1. Enter by selecting a minimum of five (5) investments and a maximum of twenty (20) positions.

2. Participants will receive $1,000,000 in Groundhog dollars. The cool million will be divided evenly among the number of positions you decide to use. In other words, if you pick (5) stocks … we’ll divide the $1,000,000 evenly, creating a public dashboard with $200,000 each.

3. No transactions will be permitted between February 2, 2016 and February 2, 2017.

4. Entries can be made starting now and through Groundhog weekend and will be accepted until the market opens on Wednesday, February 3 at 9:30 ET.

Entries can be submitted by emailing manifest@manifestinvesting.com or by posting here in the Groundhog Challenge forum folder.

5. Stocks under $1 not permitted.

This is a total return contest — the influence of dividends is accounted for.

Fave Five (1/29/2016)

expectingalpha Stocks , , , , ,

Fave Five (1/29/2016)

This week’s Fave Five is a tribute to the letter “A”. Apple, Aunt Annie’s Alligator, A, A, A. (Can you tell we have a 15-month-old grandson?)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are Akamai Tech (AKAM), Apple (AAPL), Astronics (ATRO), Alliance Data Systems (ADS), and PRA Group (PRAA).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 26.4%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 9.5% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +2.2% since inception. 57.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Successful Investing (Chicago)

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Experience Successful Investing based on decades of time-honored methods and philosophy — brought to life by the modern investment club movement …

You’re invited to a complimentary workshop where you’ll learn how to discover and study the best companies, how to determine if/when they are “on sale,” and prudent portfolio design & management principles using Manifest Investing’s web-based resources for long-term investors.

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/184-chicago-successful-investing

Note: This will be an on-location Simulcast event. If you’re attending in person in Chicago, please also RSVP to: manifest@manifestinvesting.com

WHAT WE’LL COVER

What are some of the most powerful lessons learned from multiple decades of successful long-term investing? We’ll explore best practices and examine key success factors based on working with the most successful investment clubs and individual investors.

  • The most important factors for selecting long term investments
  • The most important components of fundamental analysis: Defining Quality, Building A Return Forecast
  • Building and Maintaining Effective Portfolios: Dashboard Diagnostics & Sandboxes
  • Discovery: Some of our Favorite Sources of Information & The Manifest Investing/Forbes 50 Best Small Companies

TIME AND PLACE

January 30, 2016

9:00 AM: Registration starts … Green Room & Open Discussion
10:00 AM to 11:30 AM: Education Session
11:30 AM to 12:30 PM: Lunch
12:30 PM to 2:00 PM: Question & Answers

ITT Technical Institute
11551 184th Place
Orland Park, IL 60467

Round Table (January 2016)

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Our Round Table is a complimentary webcast — generally offered on the last Tuesday of the month at 8:30 PM ET.

What: Round Table Discussion of Favorite Stock Study Ideas

When: Tuesday, January 26 at 8:30 PM ET

Where: Online. Register via https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5665135077720983042

Who: Cy Lynch, Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus, Mark Robertson and The Audience

Why: Because we like to share ideas for successful investing. The selections made by Round Table participants have beaten the market over the last five years with a relative return of approximately +3.0%

Stocks Likely To Be Featured

  • Favorites from January Sweet 16
  • Biogen IDEC (BIIB)
  • Conoco Phillips (COP)
  • Hibbett Sporting Goods (HIBB)
  • TBD

The session (webcast) is FREE. Please invite your friends and family to attend.

If you’d like to be added to an email reminder list for this and all future (monthly) Round Tables, send a request to nkavula1@comcast.net

Sweet 16 (January 2016)

Sweet 16 20160125