Weekend Warriors

Fave Five (7/1/2016)

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Fave Five (7/1/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Air Lease (AL)
  • Biogen (BIIB)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Simulations Plus (SLP)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 14.6%. The median 5-year return forecast for $VLE is 7.1% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (July 1, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +1.8% since inception. 41.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (6/24/2016)

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  British flag

We’re going Brexit shopping.  In the wake of the polling results, some European disruptions are inevitable but a 500-point drop in U.S. stock market indices is likely unwarranted.  Our weekly shopping list was restricted to the best long-term prospects this weekend — hoping for some outsized opportunities thanks to Mr. Market and pundit/media hand wringing.

Fave Five (6/24/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Celgene (CELG)
  • Polaris (PII)
  • Proto Labs (PRLB)
  • Synaptics (SYNA)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 10.8%. The median 5-year return forecast for $VLE is 5.6% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short.(June 24, 2016)Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey.Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.comS&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +2.7% since inception. 55.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (5/27/2016)

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Our five Stocks to Study include four repeat appearances and one newcomer: Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI)

Fave Five (5/27/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Computer Programs (CPSI)
  • Ensign Group (ENSG)
  • Simulations Plus (SLP)
  • Under Armour “C” (UA-C)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 10.4%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.5% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short.(May 27, 2016)Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey.Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.comS&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +8.3% since inception. 63.8% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Closed Position

The position in Nordstrom (JWN) was closed as the relative return dipped to -20%. (I was cheering for a recovery here)

Jwn fave 5 close 20160512

Fave Five (5/20/2016)

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This weekend we celebrate decades of successful stock selection with the community of investors from NAIC Better Investing as they gather near Washington D.C. for their annual convention.  The following short list of stocks is representative of the types of study nudges that will be happening all weekend — and we’ll bring you some highlights here.  For now, here’s our weekly study batch:

Fave Five (5/20/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Gentherm (THRM)
  • Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • Under Armor (UA)

Honorable Mention: Apple (AAPL) — “Warren Buffett” bought some.

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.5%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.7% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (May 20, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +6.1% since inception. 56.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-

Fave Five (5/13/2016)

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Fave Five (5/13/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Gentherm (THRM)
  • Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • Under Armor (UA)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.5%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.7% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short.(May 13, 2016)Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey.Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.comS&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +0.8% since inception. 54.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Hain Celestial (HAIN) was “sold” from the tracking portfolio.

HAIN had been added on 12/28/2015 at $41.23.

The sale on 5/12/2016 at $48.06 represents a total return of 16.6% and a relative return of +16.3%.

Fave Five (5/6/2016)

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Fave Five (5/6/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Allergan (AGN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Gentherm (THRM)
  • Under Armor (UA)
  • Simulations Plus* (SLP)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.3%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.9% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (May 6, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. *1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +22.9% since inception. 55.6% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (4/29/2016)

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Fave Five (4/29/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Methods (AIRM)
  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Alphabet/Google (GOOG)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.3%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.4% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 29, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. *1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +15.2% since inception. 59.5% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave Five (4/15/2016)

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Fave Five (4/15/2016)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Air Methods (AIRM)
  • Inteliquent (IQNT)
  • Maximus (MMS)
  • Perrigo (PRGO)
  • Steris (STE)

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 9.2%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 6.6% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (April 15, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr Rhino Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase or Morgan Stanley.

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +20.2% since inception. 53.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

  • Aaron’s (AAN)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Biogen (YouTube video: BIIB discussion starts at 21:45 of the session)
  • Forward Air (FWRD)
  • Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors