srcl

Stuffing Stockings With Eddy

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Crossing Wall Street: Buy List for 2016

Source: http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2015/12/cws-market-review-december-18-2015.html

by Eddy Elfenbein

The five new stocks are Alliance Data Systems (ADS), Biogen (BIIB), Cerner (CERN), HEICO (HEI) and Stericycle (SRCL). I’ll have more to say about them next week. Don’t worry, I’ll go into full detail. I’ll also explain why I’m removing the deletions.

The six deletions are Ball, eBay, Moog, Oracle, PayPal and Qualcomm. Remember that we have an extra stock leaving this year due to the PayPal spinoff.

To recap, I assume the Buy List is equally weighted among the 20 stocks. The buy price for each stock will be the closing price as of December 31, 2015. The new Buy List goes into effect on January 4, 2016, the first day of trading of the new year.

The Buy List is now locked and sealed, and I won’t be able to make any changes for the entire year. I’ll have a complete recap of 2015 at the end of the year. I’ll also have more to say about our new buys, and I’ll give you new Buy Below prices.

As far as this year’s Buy List goes, there are only nine trading days left in 2015, and it appears that our Buy List will return to its market-beating ways. Through Thursday, our Buy List is up 4.09% while the S&P 500 is down 0.83% (not including dividends). This will be the eighth time in the last nine years that we’ve beaten the S&P 500.

The Manifest Investing “Take Away”

For now, here’s the preliminary tracking dashboard. (The “contributions” will be reset to $50,000 each at the beginning of the new year.) The overall return forecast is projected to outpace the market over the long term.

The newcomers bring considerable strength to the portfolio, bolstering the overall return forecast, quality and sales growth forecast. Overall quality is good and although we’d like to see a little higher average growth forecast — it’s above average and hunkered down for potential persistent doldrums.

All but one of the Buy List entries (Signature Bank) hail from the Value Line Standard Edition.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) was featured as a 5-star stock via www.morningstar.com just this morning.

The 1-Year total return forecast (ACE) for the Buy List 20 is a robust 16.3%.

Sector distribution and Size/Growth Diversification can be checked and continuously monitored using the tracking portfolio at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/crossing-wall-street-2016-buy-list

Speaking Of Tracking Portfolios

As Eddy mentioned, as the 2015 Buy List comes “spinning out of the turn” and heading to the finish line — it looks like the CWS Buy List will beat the market for the 8th time in the last nine years! Congratulations, Eddy.

Through 12/17, the S&P 500 (VFINX) is up 1.1% (including dividends) and the 2015 Buy List is up 5.2%.

https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/crossing-wall-street-2015-buy-list

Take us home, Eddy. Seasons Greetings and Merry Christmas, Everyone!

Fave Five (12/4/2015)

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Fave Five

Here are five stocks that could be studied going into the weekend. They essentially represent a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are Apple (AAPL), CVS Health (CVS), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), Atwood Oceanics (ATW) and Stericycle (SRCL).

The five all rank in the top percentile by Manifest Investing ranking — based on a combination of quality and return forecast. We were also nudged by former Groundhog Challenge Champion Anne Manning to limit the field to the top quartile when it comes to earnings stability. And yes, that tightens things down to a field that we’d generally consider more favorably.

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) is 19.0%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 7.2% (annualized).  PAR stands for Projected Annual Return and uses a constant 5-year time horizon.

Weekend Warriors

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors

Fave five 20151204

Round Table: Last Call!

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The February Round Table will get underway at 10:30 AM ET as our noble knights and damsels gather on the red carpet and mingle in the Green Room — sponsored by Caesarstone. The Pavilion management team would like to thank the overnight campers for not building a campfire on the red carpet and for maintaining order while celebrating with your “tailgate among the Golden Knights.”

Stocks likely to be discussed:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Caesarstone (CSTE)
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • Fossil (FOSL)
  • Stericycle (SRCL)
  • Walgreen (WAG)

Come out for this FREE webcast and see how many Golden Knight statues that Ken Kavula and Hugh McManus abscond again this year.

Register via: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/143-round-table-march-1-2014

View From The Top Shelf

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Sweet 16: Screening Results (March 2013)

This month features the top percentile of all stocks covered at MANIFEST on the basis of quality (our combination rating of financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth and profitability forecasts). It’s not the customary sixteen stocks or so … but these twelve quality champions are formidable and worthy of a closer look and automatic/perpetual pounce pile status.

Overall Market Expectations

The median projected annual return (MIPAR) for all 2400+ stocks followed by MANIFEST (Solomon database) is 7.2% (2/28/2013). The multi-decade range for this indicator is 0-20% and an average reading since 1999 is 8.5%.

Companies of Interest

With the median return forecast hovering at 7.2%, less than the historical average and nearing historical lows, it makes sense to shop on the top shelf. If prices continue to surge absent any strengthening of fundamentals, the return forecast could get significantly lower. The subtle whittling of expectations (no slashing) continues as we begin the first quarter updates for 2013. Invest in the best (highest quality) but only when they’re suitably on sale.

The top shelf company with the highest fusion rating (combination of fundamental and technical analysis scoring) is Cognizant Technology (CTSH). Cognizant is well-positioned within its industry with a strong track record and stands to benefit as the global recession turns to recovery.

Mesa Labs (MLAB) continues to score well and is one of our favorite companies from this year’s batch of promising small companies from Forbes.

The recent price swoon in Coach (COH) leaves the company with the lowest price-to-fair value ratio (76%) from Morningstar and Standard & Poor’s (83%) among the companies on the top shelf. The price reduction also generates an annualized low total return forecast of 16.4% at Value Line. There’s a rumor floating that somebody thinks all of the purses are a bit pricey … but those crowds of trampling shoppers and a legacy of results suggests that the whole company might be worth buying. I don’t think the price tag hanging on the company is $40-something.

Those return forecasts across the board look pretty good on the top shelf … not a bad idea to start there.