This Week at MANIFEST (7/31/2015)

A Wooden Anniversary!

It’s “one of those weeks” as we celebrate five years of monthly Round Table webcasts during our July session on Tuesday night, July 28th at 8:30 PM ET. Anyone and everyone is invited as we’ll take a look back at five years of selections and celebrate a tracking portfolio that is beating the overall stock market. Our intent is to share a few actionable ideas every month — and keep track while demonstrating a time-honored approach to stock analysis (discovery and selection) that has served our community of investors for more than 70 years.

Round Table Tracking Portfolio:

Event Registration:

Companies of Interest: Value Line

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.3% — slightly higher than the 4.5% for the Value Line 1700.

Long term forecasts were relatively stable with very few material changes in outlook. Please be reminded that some “upgrades” move stocks from “consider selling” classifications to a “weak hold.” This is likely the case with Foot Locker, Ulta, American Eagle and Zoetis. Fundamentals strengthened but still remain potentially overvalued, just not as much.

Materially Stronger: Dollar Tree (DLTR), Sempra Energy (SRE), Foot Locker (FL), Ulta Salon (ULTA), American Eagle (AEO), Zoetis (ZTS)

Materially Weaker: Weight Watchers (WTW), Francesca’s (FRAN), Sears Holdings (SHLD)

Standard Coverage Initiated:

Discontinued: Mead Westvaco (MWV), Babcock & Wilcox (BWC), Family Dollar (FDO)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 4.5%, up from 3.8% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (7/31/2015)

  • Fossil (FOSL) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
  • Weight Watchers (WTW) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
  • Coach (COH) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
  • Iconix Brands (ICON) — Lowest P/FV (S&P)
  • Kate Spade (KATE) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
  • Kate Spade (KATE) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
  • Sempra Energy (SRE) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)

Note: The price targets from Goldman Sachs are from public releases and represent a partial sample. The price target is logged as of the most recent public analyst report. Although every effort is made to keep this information as current as possible, some of the ratings may not reflect more recent research and updates.

Round Table: Last Call!

The February Round Table will get underway at 10:30 AM ET as our noble knights and damsels gather on the red carpet and mingle in the Green Room — sponsored by Caesarstone. The Pavilion management team would like to thank the overnight campers for not building a campfire on the red carpet and for maintaining order while celebrating with your “tailgate among the Golden Knights.”

Stocks likely to be discussed:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Caesarstone (CSTE)
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • Fossil (FOSL)
  • Stericycle (SRCL)
  • Walgreen (WAG)

Come out for this FREE webcast and see how many Golden Knight statues that Ken Kavula and Hugh McManus abscond again this year.

Register via:

Weekender Screen: FOSL COH RUE

Tomorrow’s Value Line edition update is basically the “Shopping Edition.” It includes a bunch of retailers, apparel and specialty retail companies with a few others. But it’s clearly deluged with those consumer discretionary companies that torment us.

To kick things off, for those in rainy day refuge or looking for some stocks to study in advance of the update, here’s some of the stocks we’ll most likely be chewing on over the next few days.

All of these stocks have relatively high return forecasts, either good or excellent quality rankings, relative price strength and momentum and in most cases, symptoms of positive (upward) price pressure.

Fossil (FOSL) and Nick Stratigos’ Round Table Selection of Rue 21 (RUE) head this list and qualify on all counts. Our 8th most widely-followed stock, Coach (COH) qualifies with the exception that COH still seems to languishing in bearish sentiment — although last week’s positive news probably places that weaker characteristic in jeopardy.

Weekender screen 20130428