VLMAP

We’re Not In Kansas, Anymore

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This Week at MANIFEST (3/27/2020)

“Everybody who has ever invested during our darkest days has ultimately been rewarded. There’s no reason to think this time is different.” — Michael Batnick

“In the next two weeks we will witness a breathtaking degree of human ingenuity. It’s starting to bubble up now. The most capable among us are now fully engaged. That virus doesn’t know what’s coming for it.” — Scott Adams

“… for young investors, this is perhaps a once in a lifetime gift, and they should do their best to open and make maximum contributions… — Jim O’Shaughnessy, A Generational Opportunity

We’re Clearly NOT In Kansas, Anymore … Toto

The 1996 movie, Twister, features Helen Hunt, Bill Paxton, Jami Gertz and Cary Elwes, and depicts a group of storm chasers researching tornadoes during a severe outbreak in Oklahoma.

There’s a scene in the movie where the chasers dine at Aunt Meg’s house in a sort of scrambled eggs and pancakes royal feast. (And beef, it’s Oklahoma, after all…) They return to Aunt Meg’s a few hours later to find the house leveled by a tornado. Aunt Meg and her dog are rescued from the debris and the balance of the movie revolves around seeking refuge, dodging flying cows … and the ultimate final scenes where Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton strap themselves to a pipe in a barn as the entire enclosure is removed from around them. And then it’s gone … the sun comes out and clear skies manifest.

“Things go wrong. You can’t explain them, you can’t predict them. … You gotta move on. Stop living in the past, and look what you got right in front of you.” — Bill Harding (Bill Paxton)

The central theme of the movie is to chase down and “inject” a tub of monitoring devices into the center of a tornado so that scientists could study anatomy, vectors, etc. and improve predictive capabilities for the benefit of many. One of these modules of sensors is shown in the accompanying figure and is named “Dorothy” in obvious tribute to those who’ve navigated over the rainbow.

But the real life, the device called “Dorothy” was actually named TOTO by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). TOTO — which stands for “TOtable Tornado Observatory” — was a 55-gallon barrel outfitted to record storm data.

Enter our own “Dorothy” …

Whether we’re dealing with black swans, or a herd of buffalo simply trying to decide how to vector, or the wreckage from Aunt Meg’s house — clarity is a good thing. And although this won’t be perfect, at least we can come to terms with moderating forecasts as we attempt to understand how deep and how wide the current chasm challenge might be.

All 1400 companies that comprise the Value Industrials have current forecasts for 2020, 2021 and 2022 in our database. These are continuously updated (via YCharts) and will be shared frequently (at least weekly) going forward.

We’ve already seen that actual results for 2019 swooned while many people continued to marvel at “the best economy in the history of our country.” The rhinos on CNBC speak of unprecedented and undamaged “fundamentals.” They’re probably very, very wrong. My take is that it’s far from cataclysmic but not nearly as strong as many believe … and spew.

As recently as 3Q2019, expectations were for a median net margin of 8.5-9% for calendar 2019. As shown here, that didn’t happen. (Despite all of the fiscal stimulus and churning of stock buybacks, etc.) Expectations were for 9.0-9.5% in 2020. We’ll monitor very closely to see how much of a shortfall to expect, displaying it as soon as possible. But the 2020 year end median net margin went from 8.4% to 8.0% in just the last week.

[The main characters are in the shed hiding from an F5 tornado and Bill sees water pipes coming out of the floor.]

Bill: Here! These pipes go down at least thirty feet, if we anchor to them we might have a chance!
Jo: Have you lost your nerve?
Bill: Tighten your seatbelt.

Whether we’re talking about empty planes or empty restaurants… this too shall pass. We persisted through challenging times in November 2008 … backing up the truck and stepping on the gas in March 2009. We don’t have 30 feet of submerged pipe but we have nearly eight decades of wisdom and lessons deployed. We’ll chase the storm, dodge the flying cows … and attempt to navigate prudently this time, too.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 1. Apple (AAPL)
  • 21. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • 25. Intel (INTC)

Round Table Stocks

  • Acuity Brands (AYI)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • IPG Photonics (IPGP)
  • NVIDIA (NVDA)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • Universal Display (OLED)

Best Small Companies (2020 Dashboard)

The status of the 2020 Best Small Companies can be tracked at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/best-small-companies-2020

Investing Round Table Sessions (Video Archives)

Investing Topics (Video Archives)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (3/27/2020)

The median Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 14.7% vs. 18.1% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: HP (HPQ), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Apple (AAPL)

Materially Weaker: Plantronics (PLT), Benchmark Electronics (BHE)

Discontinued: Pattern Energy (PEGI)

Market Barometers

“There’s a huge difference between an expectation and a forecast in investing. An expectation is an high-probability acknowledgment of how things might happen. A forecast is a specific prediction. In investing, forecasts are dangerous.” — Titan Research

Value Line Median Appreciation Projection (VLMAP) Forecast. The long-term median appreciation projection for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 21.8%, INCREASING from 15.8% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 25% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

“It is my opinion that these future appreciation forecasts are going to be revised downward (and with larger downward revisions than currently expected/anticipated) faster than someone can yell, “Fire” in a crowded movie theatre.  In a word: It’s a Trap !!!” — Nick DiVirgilio

Nick is right.

Some of the geekier among us will recognize Admiral Ackbar from Star Wars:

The phrase stems from a memorable quote said by Admiral Ackbar (voiced by Erik Bauersfeld), the leader of Mon Calamari rebels, during the Battle of Endor in the 1983 Star Wars film Episode VI: Return of the Jedi. In the movie, as the Alliance mobilize its forces in a concerted effort to destroy the Death Star, Admiral Ackbar encounters an unexpected ambush, which leads him to exclaim, “It’s a trap!”

And we’re getting perhaps a little geeky, but here’s a snippet of how we’re approaching this … and why I’m optimistic that we’re barking at the right tree.

  • After the stock market closed on Friday and locked in prices for the weekend, the median projected return (MIPAR) was 18.1%.
  • A current data refresh of our database now displays a MIPAR of 17.4%.
  • The prices didn’t change. But YCharts has been busily and dutifully updating analyst forecasts (most likely from work-from-home environments) all weekend long and this bolsters my instincts on this.

There’s no way to know the duration and amplitude of this disruption — but at least we’re not flying blind with “static analyses” on the positions that we follow.

But … chances are … we’ll have a much better perspective on the CHASM than “average investors”.

 

Or, as Mr. Spock would say, “it’s only logical, Captain”.  — Ted Brooks

 

Update Batch: Stocks to Study (3/27/2020)

Long & Short Term Perspectives. (March 27, 2020) Proj Ann Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. MANIFEST Ranking: Combination ranking that equally weights PAR and Quality. VL Low Tot Ret: Value Line forecast, expressed as low total return forecast. Owner’s PROC: Projected Return on Capital via 5-year EPS forecast versus current capital — equity and debt. Morningstar and ACE and P/FV: Price-to-Fair Value estimates from the (2) sources. 1-Yr ACE Tot Return: One year total return estimates via ACE.

Market Benchmarks (Continued)

Value Line Arithmetic Average. We’ve reached relative strength levels that suggest potentially oversold. But a reminder nudges away in that the bouncing ball bounced at a “bottom” for several months from November 2008-March 2009, a period that seemed like a very, very, long time.

Manifest Investing Median Return Forecast (MIPAR). Reaching those levels seen in 2008-2009.

Value Line Industrials. Net Margin Not much change as the last few “precincts” for 2019 report in with their actual 4Q and 2019 year-end actuals. But we dropped from 8.4% to 8.0% on the 2020 estimates with a little erosion on the 2021-2024 expectations.

This one’s for Ted Brooks. Because he’s right about the algos and the Rise of the Machines.

You can’t look at this without noticing the daily transaction volume in the last 30 minutes or so (actually 15 … or 5) minutes of trading every day.

spx last 30 20200320

Surrender, Dorothy?

Whoa.

We didn’t expect our version of “Dorothy” (or TOTO) to capture the changing landscape quite this quickly.

Sure. Our beloved Wall Street rhinos are back at their desks — many of them probably working from home — and they’re clearly not in a good mood. A quick comparison of this weekend’s chart shows no improvement in 2019 … with continued declines in 2020E and 2021E … and the slope of the long term trend has already deflected enough that we can “feel” it in our return forecasts.

 

There’s no place like home.  There’s no place like home.  There’s no place like home.

Wall Street on Water … Ahead

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This Week at MANIFEST (9/23/2016)

If you’ve ever wondered what a cruise ship class room looks like, here’s Christi Powell (Oklahoma City) aboard the Holland Cruise Lines Westerdam doling out another one of her exceptional classes on common sense financial matters. This voyage had two side-by-side class rooms, attended pretty much as you see here. As you can see, it’s like any other class room — except for the glaciers, whales, salmon and Alaskan fjords out the window.

Relatively small blocks of time (1 hour each) were carved out during the cruise to present a number of investing-related classes over a span of seven days. It was the first time Manifest Investing had attended and participated in one of these efforts and we came away impressed with the potential. The pace was unhurried and attendees had plenty of opportunities over dinners and while navigating the waters to discuss just about anything. We’ll probably explore collaborating with Better Investing and reaching out to some other communities for a Boston-to-Montreal version of this cruise next year. Stay tuned for more details and please send us a note (manifest@manifestinvesting.com) if you’d be interested in exploring more details about a future cruise… and we’ll add you to the “Maybe” Manifest. (grin)

There were many highlights and we’ll continue the roll out of the handbook chapters we issued to our ship mates in days ahead.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 4. Fastenal (FAST)
  • 15. Procter & Gamble (PG)
  • 31. Home Depot (HD)
  • 35. Lowe’s (LOW)

Round Table Stocks: Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), Fastenal (FAST), Tractor Supply (TSCO)

Best Small Companies (None this week)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (9/23/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.0% vs. 5.0% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Ethan Allen (ETH), Bemis (BMS)

Materially Weaker: Sunpower (SPWR), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Tile Shop Holdings (TTS)

Discontinued: Cablevision (CVC), Elizabeth Arden (RDEN)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.0%, unchanged from 5.0% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (9/23/2016)

The Long & Short. (September 23, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value viawww.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Stock Selection & Portfolio Management September 24, 2016 at 9:00 AM ET Indianapolis, Indiana

Ken Kavula & Mark Robertson will be the featured presenters at this all-day educational workshop for long-term investors. Overview of Analysis (We’ll actually do a case study — walking through the analysis with exposure to our favorite resources and research.) Common Ground – How investment clubs take care of a portfolio. We’ll review portfolio design and discuss management considerations. What is effective stock “watching?” How can we best be vigilant for opportunities and threats to our holdings? Discovery – A demonstration of various screening resources with a look at some of our favorite resources. An Industry Study – Taking a discovery and putting it through its paces to ensure that we’re considering (or accumulating and retaining the best of the best) Let’s Talk Stocks – An interactive, audience-driven discussion of specific study ideas and case studies.

For more information: Go here.

September Round Table September 27, 2016 at 8:30 PM ET ONLINE

Stocks Featured: TBD

The Round Table tracking portfolio has beaten the market by 3-4 percentage points over the last five years. Consider joining Kim Butcher, Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson as they share their current favorite stock study ideas.

We will be continuing the discussion of the relative return-based selling guideline for portfolio management.

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/199-round-table-september-2016

Discovery Club

“Dump your hedge funds and explore their small-cap stock picks.”

Small cap is not necessarily small (faster-growing) companies but in general, we like the idea of a nice blend. So yes, we’re interested in hunting down some actionable ideas among the most successful investors on our radar screen — seeking companies that aren’t on too many radar screens, yet.

The discovery of smaller, promising and faster-growing companies has always been one of our favorite (and rewarding) activities. In that spirit, we’re expanding our efforts in this realm. This week, we redouble our efforts to discover some smaller, less discovered companies and add them to our coverage. The EXTENDED EDITION of the Value Line Investment Survey will be the first resource scanned and we’ll also take a look at some new positions or significant accumulations among our Best Small Company Funds starting with Brown Small Company.

But it doesn’t end with only the smaller companies, we’ll also be vigilant for opportunities flagged by reviewing the quarterly filings of idea generation resources like the Renaissance Technologies hedge fund.

This Week’s Sources and Suggestions

  • ITC Holdings (ITC) — Thanks, Marty Eckerle (Temporary Reinstatement)
  • Value Line Investment Survey

Coverage Initiated/Restored: CalAtlantic (CAA), Fonar Corp (FONR), ITC Holdings (ITC), State National (SNC)

Market Barometers (Continued)

By popular demand, it’s probably time to check in on our of favorite, albeit obscure, market barometers.

US New Highs-New Lows ($USHL)

The long-term trailing average for $USHL actually dipped below zero within the past year — and trepidation was a little more rampant. But as shown here, the storm seems to have passed.

ushl 20160921

Value Line Low Total Return Screen (6/21/2013)

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Companies of Interest

Both CVS (CVS) and Walgreen (WAG) have low total return forecasts of 8.5% during this week’s update. But this week’s nod/tribute is to those of you who have suggested that it was feasible that Rite-Aid (RAD) with its lowest-in-field quality ranking had a viable chance of recovering and cited a change in management that has steadily been working to improve conditions over the last few years. Although still a work in progress, profitability appears to have found thin black ink. Rite-Aid is now at $3.00 up from lows of $0.20 (+1400% since 2009) and some turnaround speculators have been rewarded.

The three companies with the highest fundamental and technical rankings are; Telefonica (TEF), Gentex (GNTX) and Qualcomm (QCOM).

Materially Stronger: Arris Group (ARRS), LKQ (LKQ), Rite Aid (RAD)

Materially Weaker: F5 Networks (FFIV), Nokia (NOK), Frontier (FTR), Cincinnati Bell (CBB), Telephone & Data Systems (TDS), U.S. Cellular (USM)

Market Barometers

The median Value Line low total return (VLLTR) forecast is now 6.2%, down from 6.3% last week.

In a normal distribution, the mean plus or minus one standard deviation covers 68.2% of the data. If you use two standard deviations, then you will cover approx. 95.5%, and three will earn you 99.7% coverage. The median low total return forecast since 1999 is 8.5% with a standard deviation of 3.5%. This means that approximately 70% of the time the low total return forecast will be between 5-12%. 96% of the time, the overall low total return forecast will be between a low of 1.5% and a high of 15.5%.

The excursions “north” of 20% (i.e. March 2009) lie outside the 99.5% probability range, because a three standard deviation swing to the upside would be 19%. This is one of the reasons that March 2009 was a back-up-the-truck, perhaps once in a lifetime buying opportunity.

Value Line Low Total Return Screen (6/7/2013)

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Companies of Interest

All things considered (e.g. return forecast, quality, sentiment, momentum) Total (TOT) still ranks as a favorite among this group of study candidates. S&P agrees, checking in with a fair value of $51.40 and a “buy” rating. Stockcharts.com yields a “bullish” point-and-figure rating with +42.4% price pressure. There is modest potential for P/E expansion and neutral with respect to margin enhancement.

Materially Stronger: American Vanguard (AVD), Conoco Phillips (COP), Ferro (FOE)

Materially Weaker: Walter Energy (WLT), Suncor Energy (SU), Kronos Worldwide (KRO), SBA Communications (SBAC), Viasat (VSAT)

Market Barometers

The median Value Line low total return forecast (VLLTR) is now 6.4%, down from 6.5% last week.

Value Line Low Total Return Screen (5/24/2013)

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Companies of Interest

Screening Criteria: (1) Included in the update universe for this week’s release by Value Line, (2) Return forecast at least 5% (percentage points) greater than the average return forecast and (3) MANIFEST quality rank (percentile) at least 60, i.e. all “Excellent” and “Good” companies in top two quintiles eligible.

Materially Stronger: Amerisource (ABC), Bruker (BRKR), Meridian Bioscience (VIVO), Navistar (NAV), Illumina (ILMN), Analogic (ALOG), Medical Action Industries (MDCI)

Materially Weaker: Cutera (CUTR)

Market Barometers

The Value Line low total return forecast is 6.5%, down from 6.7% last week.

Value Line Low Total Return Screen (5/10/2013)

expectingalpha Stocks , , ,

Companies of Interest

Energy companies like Schlumberger (SLB) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV) continue to offer attractive returns. No major shifts among the industries to report this week.

Materially Stronger: Host Hotels (HST), Rowan (RDC), Dril-Quip (DRQ), Cytec (CYT), Wyndham Worldwide (WYN), Vail Resorts (MTN), Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI), Lamar Advertising (LAMR)

Materially Weaker: International Game Technology (IGT), McClatchy (MNI), Monster Worldwide (MWW), American Greetings (AM)

Market Barometers

The Value Line low total return (VLLTR) forecast is 6.7% versus 6.8% last week.

Nothing to see here, go shop for some stocks, high-quality (solid financial strength)is still a pretty good idea with the median return forecast at 6.5%.

That Long-Term Return Forecast (3/31/2013)

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Just a refresher on the forecast vs. actual results for the Value Line Low Total Return Forecast (VLLTR) … a close cousin of Mark Hulbert’s VLMAP … and taking Mr. Hulbert up on his suggestion to benchmark versus the Wilshire 5000 (VTSMX).

As shown here, even the Value Line LOW total return forecast has been fairly consistently 3-4 percentage points higher than actual results.

And to reinforce, we consistently see alignment between VLLTR for individual companies and their projected annual return (PAR) at Manifest Investing. Why is this the case? We believe that the inclusion of analyst research from the likes of Morningstar and Standard & Poor’s moderately tempers the overall analysis. (We obviously include Value Line in the analysis of every company, too.) Time after time, we see slightly lower growth, profitability or projected P/E forecasts when we aggregate and combine — and find that collectively, this combined result aligns more closely with VLLTR and actual total return results over the last several years.

For the bigger picture, here’s the Wilshire 5000 actual results vs. the VLLTR forecasts (quarterly back to 1999):