Round Table

Round Table (Dec 2015)

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Round Table (December 2015)

What: Round Table Discussion of Favorite Stock Study Ideas

When: Tuesday, December 29 at 8:30 PM ET

Where: Online. Register via https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2741626017839875074

Who: Cy Lynch, Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson

Why: Because we like to share ideas for successful investing. The selections made by Round Table participants have beaten the market over the last five years with a relative return of approximately +3.0%

Stocks Likely To Be Featured

  • Favorites from Christmas Countdown Dozen and/or This Week’s Fave Five
  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
  • Mesa Labs (MLAB)
  • Scripps Network (SNI)
  • TBD

The session (webcast) is FREE. Please invite your friends and family to attend.

If you’d like to be added to an email reminder list for this and all future (monthly) Round Tables, send a request to nkavula1@comcast.net

Round Table (November 2015)

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Round Table (November 2015)

What: Round Table Discussion of Favorite Stock Study Ideas

When: Monday, November 30 at 8:30 PM ET

Where: Online. Register via https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5522647165700089346

Who: Kim Butcher, Ken Kavula, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson

Why: Because we like to share ideas for successful investing. The selections made by Round Table participants have beaten the market over the last five years with a relative return of approximately +3.0%

Stocks Likely To Be Featured

  • Maximus (MMS)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO)
  • PayPal (PYPL)
  • Proto Labs (PRLB)
  • TBD

The session (webcast) is FREE. Please invite your friends and family to attend.

If you’d like to be added to an email reminder list for this and all future (monthly) Round Tables, send a request to nkavula1@comcast.net

Here’s an Ivory Soap Screen snapshot (MANIFEST Rank > 99.44) for some Round Table candidates.

Ivory screen 20151127

I don’t know if Ken Kavula will be using the Mid-Michigan Market Beaters for some shopping ideas — but he should.

Here’s the tracking dashboard of their consensus selections for 2016.

Mid mich market beaters dash 20151130

Our Best One-Hit Wonders

It’s interesting that 29-of-50 One-Hit Wonders have positive relative returns. These companies represent single selections made over the course of the last 5 1/2 years. The choice could have been made by one of the Round Table knights, a guest damsel or guest knight. What is also true about these selections is they did not receive a “seconding” audience vote at the time of presentation.

Rt one hit wonders best 20151130

Our Worst One-Hit Wonders

All I can say for most of these (attributed to Robertson) is that “it’s early.” Only a couple of them are closed (sold) positions — so there’s plenty of work-in-progress here.

Rt one hit wonders worst 20151130a

 

September 2015 Round Table

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What: Round Table Discussion of Favorite Stock Study Ideas

When: Tuesday, September 29 at 8:30 PM ET

Where: Online. Register via https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/178-round-table-september-2015

Who: Kim Butcher, Ken Kavula, Herb Lemcool, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson

Why: Because we like to share ideas for successful investing. The selections made by Round Table participants have beaten the market over the last five years with a relative return of approximately +3.0%

Stocks Likely To Be Covered: Apple (AAPL), Illumina (ILMN), McGraw Hill Financial (MHFI)

The session (webcast) is FREE. Please invite your friends and family to attend.

If you’d like to be added to an email reminder list for this and all future (monthly) Round Tables, send a request to nkavula1@comcast.net

This Week at MANIFEST (7/31/2015)

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A Wooden Anniversary!

It’s “one of those weeks” as we celebrate five years of monthly Round Table webcasts during our July session on Tuesday night, July 28th at 8:30 PM ET. Anyone and everyone is invited as we’ll take a look back at five years of selections and celebrate a tracking portfolio that is beating the overall stock market. Our intent is to share a few actionable ideas every month — and keep track while demonstrating a time-honored approach to stock analysis (discovery and selection) that has served our community of investors for more than 70 years.

Round Table Tracking Portfolio: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/round-table

Event Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/174-round-table-july-2015

Companies of Interest: Value Line

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.3% — slightly higher than the 4.5% for the Value Line 1700.

Long term forecasts were relatively stable with very few material changes in outlook. Please be reminded that some “upgrades” move stocks from “consider selling” classifications to a “weak hold.” This is likely the case with Foot Locker, Ulta, American Eagle and Zoetis. Fundamentals strengthened but still remain potentially overvalued, just not as much.

Materially Stronger: Dollar Tree (DLTR), Sempra Energy (SRE), Foot Locker (FL), Ulta Salon (ULTA), American Eagle (AEO), Zoetis (ZTS)

Materially Weaker: Weight Watchers (WTW), Francesca’s (FRAN), Sears Holdings (SHLD)

Standard Coverage Initiated:

Discontinued: Mead Westvaco (MWV), Babcock & Wilcox (BWC), Family Dollar (FDO)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 4.5%, up from 3.8% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (7/31/2015)

  • Fossil (FOSL) — Highest MANIFEST Rank
  • Weight Watchers (WTW) — Highest Low Return Forecast (VL)
  • Coach (COH) — Lowest P/FV (Morningstar)
  • Iconix Brands (ICON) — Lowest P/FV (S&P)
  • Kate Spade (KATE) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (ACE)
  • Kate Spade (KATE) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (S&P)
  • Sempra Energy (SRE) — Best 1-Yr Outlook (GS)

Note: The price targets from Goldman Sachs are from public releases and represent a partial sample. The price target is logged as of the most recent public analyst report. Although every effort is made to keep this information as current as possible, some of the ratings may not reflect more recent research and updates.

Round Table (February 2015)

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You’re invited to join us as the colleagues of the Round Table present their favorite stock study ideas at the February session.

It’s our annual black tie over suit-of-armor extravaganza as we’ll also honor the best moments and decisions of 2014 and since inception of the Round Table five years ago.

Awards to be Presented

  • Best Stock Selection (2014)
  • Best Stock Selection (All-Time)
  • Best Picture/Story
  • Best Accuracy (2014 & All-Time)
  • Best Return Performance (2014 & All-Time)

Registration: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/166-round-table-february-2015

Round Table: Standing Room Only?

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Queue Dozing?

If this persists, we may have to go to assigned seating for Pavilion seats at next year’s Round Table Awards?

Some of these long-term investors have camped out to save their place in the queue.

“Dude, if you’re gonna go with Southwest Airlines cattle car seating programs, we’re going to have to resort to this. But no worries, we do this all the time at places like Duke or Michigan State University.”

Yes, it’s true that Southwest Airlines (LUV) is in the running for one of the most prestigious categories on Saturday morning.

“No. We’re not cold. It’s not like we’re doing this in Michigan … or New York … or Wisconsin. This is a cyber event, Silly! Besides, word on the street is that Ken Kavula has been red hot with his Round Table picks lately. We want to know how hot.”

True. But you’ve got the pajamas optional part right. Attendees are welcome to drop in with a cup of coffee and don their favorite casual attire. There is no truth to the rumor that Kathy Griffin or Joan Rivers will be doing fashion commentary tomorrow. I wouldn’t rule out a few pushups by Jack Palance, particularly if he’s nudged by Billy Crystal or Ellen Degeneres.

There’s still room and long-term investors are welcome and invited to join us. Yes, you may bring your sleeping bag.

Date: Saturday — March 1, 2014
Time: 11 AM ET (but the red carpet festivities will start at 10:30 AM ET)
Register: https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/475449410

Walgreen (WAG)

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Walgreen (WAG) will likely be suggested as a sell candidate during the February Round Table. The recent surge in stock price ($68) results in a return forecast of approximately 3%. The August-2010 selection was the first Best Selection winner at the first red carpet gala. WAG has been selected by three of us, with the four most recent selections by Hugh McManus.

The stock is overbought with a relative strength index (RSI) of 79.6 and momentum (ROC) is considerable as the stock price has advanced 70.3% over the trailing 12-months.

Make no mistake.

This is an excellent company — and it has been very, very good to us.

Our $7000 invested in Walgreen in the Round Table tracking portfolio is now worth $15,801.

Closing out these positions will lock down 7-of-the-top-20 all-time results for our Round Table since inception.

What is your outlook on Walgreen? Would you sell? Would you consider covered calls for an exit strategy?

Red Carpet Ready!

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The Golden Knight monoliths are in position outside the pavilion. The crowds are already forming for this Saturday’s Round Table award ceremony. We’ll be transmitting the festivities live starting at 10:30 AM from the red carpet.

Six-of-seven of these Round Table regulars BEAT THE MARKET in 2013: Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Hugh McManus, Mark Robertson, Guest Damsels (Kim Butcher, Susan Maciolek, Anne Manning), Guest Knights (Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman, Nick Stratigos) and Audience Selections.

You can still reserve your “pajama-friendly” seat at: https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/475449410

Who will win the following awards?

  • Best Stock Selection (2013)
  • Best Stock Selection (All-Time)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Accuracy (2013)
  • Best Accuracy (All-Time)
  • Best Relative Return (2013)
  • Best Relative Return (All-Time)

Join us as we explore, discover and share our favorite stock ideas for 2014 and beyond …

Red carpet preps

Annual Round Table Awards Ceremony

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Why should you care?

Our Round Table model portfolio has outperformed the Wilshire 5000 by 3-4 percentage points over the last four years.  Each month, our regular panel and a number of successful stock pickers share their favorite current ideas during this FREE webcast.  The result is a tracking portfolio and a source that has generated some rewarding ideas since inception.

Annual Round Table Awards Ceremony

Please join us for our annual red carpet and black tie edition of the Round Table.

We’ll be crowning winners for the best ideas of 2013, the best performers of the last four years … and choosing a few stocks that are currently of interest.

Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson have saved a spot for you at the table next to guest damsels Kim Butcher, Susan Maciolek and Anne Manning and guest knights Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman and Nick Stratigos.

Arrive a few minutes early for the red carpet session (starting at 10:30 AM ET) where we’ll have celebrity interviews and remember, Mid-Michigan sponsored events feature an open microphone if you have a stock or investing topic that you’d like to discuss before the festivities get underway.

The webcast is FREE and you’re all invited to extend an invitation to friends and family.

Registration: https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/475449410

State of the Round Table (January 2014)

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State of the Round Table Portfolio

We took a look at some of the stocks that have delivered a solid long-term performance for the tracking portfolio as well as sharing our favorite current stock ideas and some analysis. What is your favorite stock idea right now?

The state of the Round Table tracking portfolio is SOLID. The relative return (internal rate of return minus the Wilshire 5000 since inception, July 2010) is +3.6% with an out performance accuracy of 56%. The objective is 60% and for context, the “average” investor generally achieves a 30-40% accuracy based on observations of the Motley Fool CAPS program.

Keep in mind that the tracking portfolio has a permanent home at:

http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/round-table

Stock Studies:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI)
  • McDonalds (MCD)
  • Shoretel (SHOR)

Fundamental Screening Results

Technical Analysis & Second Opinions On Parade

Hugh’s Noodling for Deeper Value

The audience selected Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI) as their January choice.