$IMAX

Fave Five: 2018 GH Edition

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Fave Five (2/9/2018)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The median 1-year ACE total return forecast is 14.7%.

By the way, the ferocity of the correction is on full display here, the median 1-year ACE total return was 1.7% just a couple of weeks ago. That reality, the bolstering fundamentals and a relative strength index that is creeping into “oversold territory” are among the reasons that diligent shopping can be pursued.

This week’s Fave Five will be a parade of several of our favorite screens, including the traditional long/short outlook, best in zone, launchpad ready, Triple Play qualified, etc.

Traditional Fave Five: NutriSystems (NTRI)
Best In Zone “Irish Spring”: Prestige Brands (PBH)
Launchpad Worthy?: IMAX (IMAX)
Triple Play Qualifiers: CVS Health (CVS)
Heavy Hogs (2018): ULTA Beauty (ULTA)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Long & Short Term Perspectives. (February 9, 2018) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. 52-Week Position: Position on scale between 52-week low price and 52-week target price. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target.

Best in Zone — “Irish Spring”

Long & Short Term Perspectives. (February 9, 2018) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. 52-Week Position: Position on scale between 52-week low price and 52-week target price. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target.

Launchpad Candidates

Reminder: These are companies exhibiting HUGE 2018 EPS forecasts versus 2017 projected/actual results. This is just a one year condition for this screen. Ideally, a stock with multi-year breakthrough and breakout potential could be discovered. Stocks exhibiting these characteristics have delivering participating clubs and individuals to the Groundhog Winner’s Circle in the past.

Triple Play Qualifiers

This group has decent (out-sized) long term return expectations in combination with the potential for P/E expansion and profitability/margin enhancement.

Heavy Hogs (2018)

These are the consensus selections — the most commonly selected stocks — among the Groundhog Challenge entries for 2018.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +4.8% since inception.

The absolute annualized rate of return is 18.1%.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (7/14/2017): Triple Play

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Fave Five (7/14/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 9.7%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • IMAX (IMAX)
  • Monro Muffler (MNRO)
  • O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)
  • Ross Stores (ROST)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (July 14, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The rate of return for the tracking portfolio is 15.6% since inception.

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.8% since inception. 46.2% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (7/7/2017)

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Fave Five (7/7/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 9.8%.

The Fave Five This Week

  • Bank of the Internet (BOFI)
  • General Electric (GE)
  • IMAX (IMAX)
  • Monro Muffler (MNRO)
  • Tractor Supply (TSCO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (June 23, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.2% since inception. 44.8% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection. The absolute annualized rate of return is 13.9%.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Fave Five (6/30/2017) Triple Play

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Fave Five (6/30/2017)

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. The average 1-year ACE total return forecast is 9.7%.

This week we return to the triple play screening method for our five favorites. The triple play possibility occurs when you find a stock that is very depressed in price and also appears to be on the verge of substantially boosting its profit margins. The triple play effect is possible in that:

(1) The depressed price of the stock can return to normal levels;

(2) increased profit margins can produce increased EPS and a higher price;

(3) may also cause higher P/E ratios, or P/E expansion.

The Fave Five This Week

  • CVS Health (CVS)
  • Gentex (GNTX)
  • IMAX (IMAX)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • Monro Muffler (MNRO)

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

The Long & Short. (June 30, 2017) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr GS: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

Fave Five Legacy (Tracking Portfolio)

The rate of return for the tracking portfolio is 15.2% since inception.

The relative/excess return for the Fave Five tracking portfolio is +0.2% since inception. 45.7% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/fave-five

Go Conventional

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This Week at MANIFEST (7/29/2016)

We up the ante on last week’s shopping theme as this week’s update includes a mother lode of retail and we resume our monthly shopping fireside chat with Tuesday night’s Round Table.

In order to help our subscribers find the companies that are “way off the map,” we’re expanding and digging into some areas that will provide a wider berth of study opportunities.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 20. Coach (COH)
  • 36. Wal-Mart (WMT)
  • 40. Costco Wholesale (COST)

Round Table Stocks: Coach (COH), Costco Wholesale (COST), Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR), Fossil (FOSL), Hibbett Sporting Goods (HIBB), Vera Bradley (VRA)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (7/29/2016)

The average Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 6.6% vs. 5.7% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: IMAX (IMAX)

Materially Weaker: Conn’s (CONN), Buckle (BKE), Ralph Lauren (RL), Nordstrom (JWN), Penney (JCP), Gap (GPS)

Discontinued: Aeropostale (ARO), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN)

Market Barometers

Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) Forecast. The long-term low total return forecast for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 5.7%, down from 5.9% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 20% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Stocks to Study (7/29/2016)

The Long & Short. (July 29, 2016) Projected Annual Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality Ranking: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. VL Low Total Return (VLLTR): Low total return forecast based on 3-5 year price targets via Value Line Investment Survey. Morningstar P/FV: Ratio of current price to fundamentally-based fair value via www.morningstar.com S&P P/FV: Current price-to-fair value ratio via Standard & Poor’s. 1-Year ACE Outlook: Total return forecast based on analyst consensus estimates for 1-year target price combined with current yield. The data is ranked (descending order) based on this criterion. 1-Year S&P Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on S&P 1-year price target. 1-Yr “GS” Outlook: 1-year total return forecast based on most recent price target issued by Goldman Sachs.

 

Discovery Club

“Dump your hedge funds and explore their small-cap stock picks.”

Small cap is not necessarily small (faster-growing) companies but in general, we like the idea of a nice blend. So yes, we’re interested in hunting down some actionable ideas among the most successful investors on our radar screen — seeking companies that aren’t on too many radar screens, yet.

The discovery of smaller, promising and faster-growing companies has always been one of our favorite (and rewarding) activities. In that spirit, we’re expanding our efforts in this realm. This week, we redouble our efforts to discover some smaller, less discovered companies and add them to our coverage. The EXTENDED EDITION of the Value Line Investment Survey will be the first resource scanned and we’ll also take a look at some new positions or significant accumulations among our Best Small Company Funds starting with Brown Small Company.

But it doesn’t end with only the smaller companies, we’ll also be vigilant for opportunities flagged by reviewing the quarterly filings of idea generation resources like the Renaissance Technologies hedge fund.

This Week’s Sources and Suggestions

  • Bob Shaw suggestion for Fox Factory (FOXF) — Thanks, Bob.
  • Value Line Investment Survey (Extended Edition, Issue 7) — Thanks, Ken Kavula

Coverage Initiated/Restored: Fox Factory (FOXF), Bank Mutual (BKMU), ESSA Bancorp (ESSA), First Clover Leaf Financial (FCLF), First Defiance Financial (FDEF), First Savings Financial (FSFG), Greene County Bancorp (GCBC), Home Bancorp (HBCP), Pathfinder Bancorp (PBHC), Timberland Bancorp (TSBK), United Community Bancorp (UCBA)

50 Best Small Companies (2015)

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This Week at MANIFEST

It’s a busy week — starting with closing out our selections for the Manifest Investing Best Small Company list … to the rescheduled Round Table on Tuesday night … to spending some quality time with friends in Seattle at their annual conference for long-term investors.

A couple of weeks ago, we were advised by Forbes that there would be no 37th Annual List of Best Small Companies. So, after 36 years and the reality that this list has provided a number of actionable and rewarding situations over the last 20 years or so, we’re left to hope that it’s a one year hiatus. The Forbes list has always been a favorite and we’ve reminded investors to “trick or treat” around Halloween every year. “It was a sad day in the Kavula household.” — Ken Kavula.

So — while remaining relatively faithful to the Forbes methodology — we decided to generate our own. We’ll do a full narrative and feature this as our cover story for November, but for now, here are the highlights and the 50 Best Small Companies by Manifest Investing.

Methodology

Criteria:

  • SMALL Annual Revenues less than ONE BILLION
  • Sales growth >= 10%
  • Annual Revenues > $50 million
  • Stock Price > $5
  • BEST Ranked by Highest Quality (Percentile ranked composite of Financial Strength, EPS Stability and relative Sales Growth Forecast and Profitability)
  • No Asset-Based Business from Financial Sector

Published Dashboard for 50 Companies: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/best-small-companies-2015

Manifest Investing 50 Best Small Companies (As Inspired by Forbes)