Lottery Lunacy

The government of the United States does a lot of things right. We,
The People, are always the reason. Miracles materialize simply
because a gifted leader has the courage to stand before millions and
say things like, “We WILL stand on the moon before the end of this
decade.” Other such statements which come to mind might be “Mr.
Gorbachev – TEAR DOWN this wall!” “I have a dream.”

Some ideas, like Social Security, have a magical promise.
Good idea, lousy execution. There are sparse few programs
which are LOUSY ideas. Uncle Sam actually does very few
things wrong. Embracing the lunacy of lotteries is near the
top of a fairly short list. A local billboard proclaimed,
“Hundreds of Millionaires Created!” The images were silent
about real damage inflicted on real people who can scarcely
afford to parlay a lottery ticket. The reality weighs heavy.

Brunching and Browsing Beyond the Basics

My wife and I had ventured into one of our favorite restaurants
for a relaxing brunch. This eatery is located in a local
mall. As I took my last sip of java, Wendy announced that
she had some quick shopping to do – and that she’d be able
to “save me” several dollars over the next few minutes.
This is one of the mysteries of life that shall remain a mystery.

I needed an escape pod, because I certainly didn’t want to be
an accomplice in this unfolding “saving” conspiracy.
Sweat forming on my brow, I desperately sought refuge. Bed,
Bath & Beyond? Zales Jewelry? Fat chance. Ah. I sighted a
Barnes & Noble. I needed a copy of Mary Farrell’s latest
book, Beyond the Basics, for a feature that we were planning for
Better Investing. My ticket to salvation. I was launched. “Gee,
honey, I’d really like to watch you try on fourteen pairs of
shoes, but I really need a certain book for work.” (It was more
than a half truth – the second half, anyway.)

I was in luck. Mary Farrell’s book was on display in the
entrance. It takes far less time to swipe a credit card than it
does to try on eighteen pairs of shoes. I needed to absorb
some time. Spending it with Mary’s words of wisdom is a
very worthy way to invest a few minutes.

I found a bench and settled in. Across the hallway, I noticed
a wooden Indian guarding the entrance to a cigar shop. The
neon sign in the window proclaimed that this establishment
also sold lottery tickets.

I glanced up from my pages to watch an elderly couple
meander around our Indian guide, gingerly approaching the
counter to buy a stack of Lotto tickets. They sauntered out
and were seated at a nearby table. “Today may be the day!”
“No winners for the last two weeks. We’re due. Hard to
believe that we’ve been striking out so much lately, huh?”
I tried to focus on Farrell’s fantastic feature, but it wasn’t
easy. These two were scratching in a frenzy, dumping their
barren losers in the waste receptacle next to their table.
Eavesdropping isn’t polite, but their groans made it a real
challenge. Suddenly, “YEE-HAH!” filled the corridors. She’d
scratched and exposed a $50 Instant Winner. She scrambled
to her feet and dashed back to the counter.

She returned with $50 worth of more potential Instant
Winners! The frenzy continued and the scratching continued,
but alas, no more screeching followed.

The return to an “investor” in the average lottery ticket is negative
99.4 percent, or something like that. In this case, it was clear
that the return was minus 100 percent. This couple would have
been far better off buying stock in that shoe company. A sure
thing? My spouse had just spent the last few minutes “saving us
money” and providing an impact that was probably enough to
make a visible difference on the company’s income statement.

A Few Moments to Dream

My thinking is wishful. My hope is that our nation of gifted educators
will focus on delivering a certain wisdom to our young people.

It’s time for our national and state legislators to tear down lottery
roadside signs and cease the television commercials. Allocate
those resources to teaching our time-honored practice of investing
small amounts – regularly. Prepare our citizens to access a lifetime
of successful investing well before the day they become eligible to
purchase lottery tickets.

Lotteries are a national disgrace. In this case, the intellectual
advantage belongs to my wooden Indian friend.

Chipotle: Montezuma Revenge?

The erosion of analyst expectations for Chipotle (CMG). Remember, stock prices follow earnings.

Cmg ace 20160105

 

Business Model Analysis

 

The reductions in sales forecasts and profitability (EPS) for 2015 and 2016 have put a dent in the trend.

Using the ACE growth estimate and reducing it by 33% as we do “across the board” the growth outlook could be imputed at (17.6%)(2/3) = 11.7%

The sales growth regression for (2013-2017) checks in at 14.9%. It’ll be interesting to see what Value Line does with the 3-5 year sales forecast if the mystery continues to persist in about a month.

Cmg model 2016016

Workshop: Grand Blanc (1/19/2016)

Experience Successful Investing based on decades of time-honored methods and philosophy — brought to life by the modern investment club movement …

You’re invited to a complimentary workshop where you’ll learn how to discover and study the best companies, how to determine if/when they are “on sale,” and prudent portfolio design & management principles using Manifest Investing’s web-based resources for long-term investors.

Registration: Seating is limited. Please RSVP to manifest@manifestinvesting.com

WHAT WE’LL COVER

What are some of the most powerful lessons learned from multiple decades of successful long-term investing? We’ll explore best practices and examine key success factors based on working with the most successful investment clubs and individual investors.

TIME AND PLACE

January 19, 2016

6:00 PM: Green Room and Introduction
6:30-8:30 PM: Educational Session Including Q&A

McLaren Public Library
515 Perry Road
Grand Blanc, MI 48439

The Stocks We Follow (MANIFEST 40)

 

 

We launched the MANIFEST 40 in October 2005, built from the stocks that most frequently appear on subscriber dashboards, and this active and continuously maintained tracking dashboard has delivered a rate of return of 9.2% since inception.

The 40 stocks are something of a barometer because we know that these community favorites are not simply followed … most of them are also widely owned, with considerable diligence and vigilance. Bottom line? On an annualized basis, your community favorites have beaten the Wilshire 5000 by +3.4 percentage points — a relative return that nurtures smiles and bolsters the returns of our actual portfolios.

The average sales growth forecast of the portfolio (6.7%) suggests that it is dominated by the “Up, Straight and Parallel” core contributors. Quality (90) is solid and the overall return forecast (9.7%) is positioned to outperform the Wilshire 5000. We’d like to see the community discover and follow some smaller, faster-growing companies.

Performance Results

The absolute rate of return for the trailing 10 years is 9.2%.

Capturing Attention: Chargers

Gilead Sciences (GILD) moved from #29 to #25 as most of the list remained rather steady. Fastenal (FAST) shuffled up to #4 and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) dropped a couple of positions. The results of $100 positions investing in any of the Top 40 companies can be viewed at any time at:

http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/manifest-40

Our MANIFEST 40 is a celebration of collective excellence in stock selection, strategy and disciplined patience.

“We have always believed that the collective decisions made by our community of long-term investors are worth huddling over … a place where ideas are born.”