Chipotle: Montezuma Revenge?

The erosion of analyst expectations for Chipotle (CMG). Remember, stock prices follow earnings.

Cmg ace 20160105

 

Business Model Analysis

 

The reductions in sales forecasts and profitability (EPS) for 2015 and 2016 have put a dent in the trend.

Using the ACE growth estimate and reducing it by 33% as we do “across the board” the growth outlook could be imputed at (17.6%)(2/3) = 11.7%

The sales growth regression for (2013-2017) checks in at 14.9%. It’ll be interesting to see what Value Line does with the 3-5 year sales forecast if the mystery continues to persist in about a month.

Cmg model 2016016

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s