December Round Table Review

The Round Table has convened on monthly basis (generally near the end of every month with allowances for schedule adjustments) since July 2010.  The intent is for the participants to identify their single favorite investment opportunity.

Non-core selections are limited to a maximum of 25% of the total positions.

The goal is to build and maintain a tracking portfolio that achieves a long-term relative return of +5% (500 basis points higher) versus the Wilshire 5000.

As of 12/31/2013, 175 selections had been made and an annualized relative return of +3.6% achieved.

Our accuracy goal (% of selections outperforming the total stock market index) is 60-70%.

As of 12/31/2013, the outperformance accuracy is 57%.

The strong performance in 2013 (+10.8% average relative return for calendar year 2013) stemmed from powerful gains in companies like 3D Systems (DDD), Polaris (PII), Priceline (PCLN), McGraw-Hill (MHFI) and Southwest Airlines (LUV). Note the number of 2013 entries on this all-time performance leader board (based on relative return) since July 2010.

Company Presentations

While Hugh McManus shopped around and decided to “Pass” once again … not finding a deep value opportunity to his liking, there was no shortage of companies kicked around. In fact, “honorable mention” included the likes of Apple (AAPL), Bio-Reference Labs (BRLI), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), Lilly (LLY), MSC Industrial (MSM), Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Target (TGT).

Cy Lynch presented long-time community favorite EMC Corp (EMC) citing strong growth characteristics and a strong “storage story” going forward. He also cited the 80% stake in VMware (VMW).

Most significant is the (1) return forecast at or near a multi-year high and the same is true with (2) the projected relative return. A company between 5-10% for projected relative return is in what we regard as the sweet spot.

The audience selected Fastenal (FAST) and SolarWinds (SWI) for inclusion in the Round Table tracking portfolio

On behalf of the Knights of the Round Table, our Guest Damsels and Guest Knights, we’d like to wish everybody a Healthy, Wealthy and Generous 2014. HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY!

The Otters of Wall Street?

Sea otters hold hands when they sleep so they don’t drift away from each other. Photo Credit: @FactHive

With all the talk revolving around Wall Street wolves and Leonardo DiCaprio, we can’t help but wonder if modern investment clubs — in the role of otters — represent the best of long-term investing. We’ll spend a few moments discussing the year in the rear-view mirror, the YEARS in the windshield and how we come together to prevent drifting and safe swimming, even when the tides roll and waters get choppy.

Our Knights of the Round Table (including our guest Damsels, Knights and audience selections) have outperformed the Wilshire by 3.6% since July-2010 as our 175 selections since inception have beat the market 57% of the time.

Join us Monday evening (12/30 8:30 PM ET) for the December 2013 Round Table as we explore, discover and CELEBRATE the performance results of the tracking portfolio. 2013 has been very good to us and we’ll spend a few moments acknowledging that while ringing in 2014. Party hats optional, but recommended!

Reserve your Webinar seat now at:

Performance Results

Companies Likely To Be Discussed

  • EMC Corp. (EMC)
  • Fastenal (FAST)
  • SolarWinds (SWI)

Shopping By Sector: Technology En Fuego

Photo Credit: Tc Morgan via Compfight cc

Where to shop these days?

Start by recognizing where NOT to shop and that’s probably the utility sector. The utility stocks have been en fuego. Don’t shop among the ashes of a bonfire, shop where a flammable pile is smoldering — but distinguish ashes from ignition.

The accompanying table has been sorted from highest potential to lowest potential based on projected annual return (PAR) — the return forecast for the ten traditional sectors from S&P.

Technology stocks worth a closer look: Apple (AAPL), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), Google (GOOG), EMC (EMC), Oracle (ORCL), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Intel (INTC).

Keep in mind that the smoldering might take a while as the often unfriendly (to Tech stocks) days of summer swoop in — for investing for the long term …

Sector gps 20130411