Finding The Best 4-Year Forecast Method

Mark Hulbert and I compare notes again on using Value Line for long-term forecasting for individual stocks and markets.  As Hulbert points out, the Value Line Median Appreciation Projection (VLMAP) has a pretty solid track record.

We agree — and side with the likes of Walter Schloss and pure discipline itself — when we use our own version of VLMAP, specifically an emphasis on the median Value Line low total return forecast (VLLTR) … a parameter that includes dividends, extending beyond long-term price appreciation and aligns even more favorably when we compare Forecast vs. Actual with the past couple of decades in the rear-view mirror.

Shopping By Sector: Technology En Fuego

Photo Credit: Tc Morgan via Compfight cc

Where to shop these days?

Start by recognizing where NOT to shop and that’s probably the utility sector. The utility stocks have been en fuego. Don’t shop among the ashes of a bonfire, shop where a flammable pile is smoldering — but distinguish ashes from ignition.

The accompanying table has been sorted from highest potential to lowest potential based on projected annual return (PAR) — the return forecast for the ten traditional sectors from S&P.

Technology stocks worth a closer look: Apple (AAPL), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), Google (GOOG), EMC (EMC), Oracle (ORCL), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Intel (INTC).

Keep in mind that the smoldering might take a while as the often unfriendly (to Tech stocks) days of summer swoop in — for investing for the long term …

Sector gps 20130411

Fear Is Melting Away

As Eddy ElfenbeiImagen recently pointed out, another 6% move to the upside for the S&P 500 and the index will finally be “flat” for the trailing six years.  If stock prices continue to surge and earnings forecasts continue to atrophy, that flat spot could have some downward slope to it.

1. “2012 returns were better than they were supposed to be.” — Jeff Gundlach.

2. Disposable income just took a hit — it’s hard to imagine that it won’t cause some dislocation and economic turbulence.

Updates on a number of community favorites in this week’s Crossing Wall Street:

Fear Is Melting Away