One of our favorite bellwethers ($USHL) is going gangbusters. (I was a little surprised to see it this elevated.)
With MIPAR at 5.3%, caution is still warranted — and shopping among the deep blues a good idea. Shop at will. Be selective.
Investing
All Right. All Right. All Right. AMEN!
All Right, All Right, All Right … AMEN!
It was vintage Matthew McConaughey on Sunday night as he thanked God first for his Best Performance by An Actor in a Leading Role in his acceptance speech. (You could have heard a pin drop in the Hollywood audience.)
We have noted here previously that McConaughey nearly stole the show at Wolf of Wall Street despite a sparse few minutes at the very beginning of the movie. I will also confess that I was relieved that Leonardo, Jonah Hill, Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts remained in their seats all Sunday night. Maybe there’s more to thespian excellence than a spewing epidemic of the F-word.
I have not seen Dallas Buyer’s Club, recipient of several awards including Matthew’s but I probably will. Our own buyer’s club, this community of long-term investors, celebrated its own annual achievement awards this past weekend too. Manifest Investing and the Mid-Michigan chapter of NAIC teamed up to present this year’s red carpet, black tie, and latte-toting pajama party on Saturday morning. The Guest Knights (Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman and Nick Stratigos) stole the show and the Audience toted home their first Golden Knight. It won’t be their last. The Wisdom of Crowds, Communities and Clubs is formidable, indeed. The awards for 2013:
- Best Stock Selection (2013): Audience Choice, Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch for Priceline (PCLN)
- Best Stock Selection (All-Time): Hugh McManus for Southwest Airlines (LUV)
- Best Picture: Mark Robertson for Crossing Wall Street, highlighting the exploits of one Eddy Elfenbein
- Best Accuracy (2013): Guest Knights Herb Lemcool and Matt Spielman
- Best Accuracy (All-Time): Guest Knights Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman & Nick Stratigos
- Best Relative Return (2013): Ken Kavula
- Best Relative Return (All-Time): Guest Knights Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman & Nick Stratigos
A wonderful community steeped in collective (and shared) wisdom. Join us for the next Round Table on March 25.
All right. All right. All right. AMEN.
Companies of Interest
I have troubling drumming up much excitement for Issue 3 of the Value Line Investment Survey.
Maybe it’s the average Quality Rank of 57. Or the average EPS Stability of 55.
This week’s update batch is chock full of companies that get whipsawed by economic tides … and that makes them non-core in our investing universe. There are a few exceptions — like some of the specialty chemical companies, some of David L. Babson’s places to remain vigilant for price swoons. But for the most part, these companies can be treacherously volatile on the operating performance side. And that obviously translates to the stock prices. It’s generally a pretty good idea to double check against S&P fair values for the companies in this batch.
Materially Stronger: Interdigital (IDCC), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Avery Dennison (AVY), Magellan Midstream (MMP), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA), Minerals Technology (MTX)
Materially Weaker: Encana (ECA), American Vanguard (AVD), Arch Coal (ACI), Boardwalk Pipeline (BWP), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), Walter Energy (WLT)
Morningstar P/FV Nudges
The average price-to-fair value (P/FV) for the companies in this week’s update batch — according to Morningstar — is 99%.
S&P P/FV Nudges
The average price-to-fair value (P/FV) for the companies in this week’s update batch — according to S&P — is 115%. (!) The two research giants clearly have a difference of opinion this week.
Market Barometers
The average Value Line low total return forecast held steady at 3.4%, unchanged from last week.
Coming Attractions
This coming Saturday (March 8), we’ll spend some time with the retirement savings plan for government employees in a FREE webcast. We’ll take a look at the items on the menu — as we do for any qualified plan — take a look at how these components have performed, and some perspective on the outlook.
Time: 10:30 ET
Please feel free to share this opportunity with friends and family who have access to the Thrift Savings Plan. “Seating” is limited.
Registration: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/146-a-few-moments-with-thrift-savings-plan-march-8-2014
Round Table: Last Call!
The February Round Table will get underway at 10:30 AM ET as our noble knights and damsels gather on the red carpet and mingle in the Green Room — sponsored by Caesarstone. The Pavilion management team would like to thank the overnight campers for not building a campfire on the red carpet and for maintaining order while celebrating with your “tailgate among the Golden Knights.”
Stocks likely to be discussed:
- Apple (AAPL)
- Caesarstone (CSTE)
- Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
- Fossil (FOSL)
- Stericycle (SRCL)
- Walgreen (WAG)
Come out for this FREE webcast and see how many Golden Knight statues that Ken Kavula and Hugh McManus abscond again this year.
Register via: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/143-round-table-march-1-2014
Red Carpet Ready!
The Golden Knight monoliths are in position outside the pavilion. The crowds are already forming for this Saturday’s Round Table award ceremony. We’ll be transmitting the festivities live starting at 10:30 AM from the red carpet.
Six-of-seven of these Round Table regulars BEAT THE MARKET in 2013: Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Hugh McManus, Mark Robertson, Guest Damsels (Kim Butcher, Susan Maciolek, Anne Manning), Guest Knights (Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman, Nick Stratigos) and Audience Selections.
You can still reserve your “pajama-friendly” seat at: https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/475449410
Who will win the following awards?
- Best Stock Selection (2013)
- Best Stock Selection (All-Time)
- Best Picture
- Best Accuracy (2013)
- Best Accuracy (All-Time)
- Best Relative Return (2013)
- Best Relative Return (All-Time)
Join us as we explore, discover and share our favorite stock ideas for 2014 and beyond …
Annual Round Table Awards Ceremony
Why should you care?
Our Round Table model portfolio has outperformed the Wilshire 5000 by 3-4 percentage points over the last four years. Each month, our regular panel and a number of successful stock pickers share their favorite current ideas during this FREE webcast. The result is a tracking portfolio and a source that has generated some rewarding ideas since inception.
Annual Round Table Awards Ceremony
Please join us for our annual red carpet and black tie edition of the Round Table.
We’ll be crowning winners for the best ideas of 2013, the best performers of the last four years … and choosing a few stocks that are currently of interest.
Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson have saved a spot for you at the table next to guest damsels Kim Butcher, Susan Maciolek and Anne Manning and guest knights Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman and Nick Stratigos.
Arrive a few minutes early for the red carpet session (starting at 10:30 AM ET) where we’ll have celebrity interviews and remember, Mid-Michigan sponsored events feature an open microphone if you have a stock or investing topic that you’d like to discuss before the festivities get underway.
The webcast is FREE and you’re all invited to extend an invitation to friends and family.
Registration: https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/475449410
Portfolio Tips & Tricks
Clubhouse: Portfolio Tips & Tricks
This webcast will feature Ken Kavula demonstrating the use of the dashboard worksheet function for portfolio decision analysis.
When: Tuesday, February 25 (8:30 PM ET)
Where: Register via https://www4.gotomeeting.com/register/227075095
Do some exploring and digging and bring your questions to the session.
Another tip: This isn’t just for investment clubs, folks. Although Ken will focus on best practices for group decision-making, this applies to any long-term investor taking care of a portfolio.
Am I Diversified? Rest of the Story
This discussion provides a demonstration of Manifest Investing dashboards, takes a look at “Am I Diversified?” suggesting that a few more stocks and an emphasis on growth/size diversification is in order.
It’s a concept that Jim Cramer might want to consider sharing with his audience.
If you would like to explore the portfolio design & management and stock screening tools at subscription-based Manifest Investing, send your name/email/zip code to manifest@manifestinvesting.com for a FREE 90-day test drive.
Searching For Stocks: All The Right Places
Happy Valentine’s Day!
We all know there’s more to this stock selection and portfolio design stuff than simply grabbing a few of Cupid’s arrows and flinging them at a stock table and going with the tickers where the projectiles land.
During last night’s session, we briefly mentioned the anecdotal long-term success of investment club-based portfolios and some legends named Lynch (Fidelity Magellan) and Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) and another venerable citizen of Graham-and-Doddsville named Walter Schloss. We might think about spending a few moments with Mr. Schloss this weekend. Why? Because he selected stocks and managed his portfolios the same way that you and I do.
We might also tip our Valentine derby in the direction of one George Nicholson, Jr. — regarded as the grandfather of the modern investment club movement and originator of our stock analysis process. His gift, a reminder about PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE, combined with a laser focus on the characteristics of growth, profitability, quality/valuation and an emphasis on trends is the stuff that superior performance can be centered on.
If you want to spend a few moments with an oldie but goodie, our presentation (video) on Searching For Stocks In All The Right Places covers many of our favorite resources and provides an overview of our StockSearch tool.
All-Of-The-Above Investing
Your Tuesday morning reminder as to why we practice All-Of-The-Above investing … investing in a diversified mix that includes small (rapidly growing), medium and large companies. We target and remain vigilant using the overall sales growth forecast (10-12% top line growth) of our portfolios.
You may ignore that anchor or talking head who used the Dow Jones Industrial Average to tell you how much your 401(k) “LOST” yesterday.
Groundhog Challenge: 2013 Results
Groundhog Challenge VII: Final Results (2013)
We’ll be reviewing the final results of the 2013 Groundhog Challenge and celebrating the achievements of the Broad Assets investment club of St. Louis, our group champions for the second year in a row and the king-of-the-hill finish by our friend, Andy Pagorek of Chicago, our individual champion for 2013.
Andy felt pretty good about his total return greater than 80% for 2013, until he saw the St. Louis group come in at over 110% for the annual contest. In a note he sent to me several weeks ago, he applauded the St. Louis gang for their repeat performance, acknowledging them in his perpetual quest for effective and successful long-term investing methods.
Join us for a FREE webcast where we’ll explore what worked and how our collective Groundhog Nation performed versus some celebrity rhinos. What didn’t work so well? Well, if confession is good for the soul, we’ll be visiting my selections that narrowly avoided finishing in last place for 2013. (In case you’re worried, I’m still near the top of the all-time leader board.)
Time: 10:30 AM ET (February 1)
Registration: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/142-a-few-moments-with-groundhog-nation-february-1-2014
Groundhog VIII: Join our next ‘Iditarod’
Entries from individual investors and groups (clubs) currently being accepted via the MANIFEST Forum and/or email to: manifest@manifestinvesting.com.
There aren’t many rules. Participants select a minimum of five (5) stocks with a maximum of (20). Selections are distributed in $1,000,000 based on stock prices on February 2, 2014. (1/31/2014) The winner is the highest value on February 2, 2015. An individual champion and group champion is crowned each year and all-time performance is also in focus. (We have seven years under our belts now.)
Expecting Alpha 