Author: expectingalpha

All Right. All Right. All Right. AMEN!

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All Right, All Right, All Right … AMEN!

It was vintage Matthew McConaughey on Sunday night as he thanked God first for his Best Performance by An Actor in a Leading Role in his acceptance speech. (You could have heard a pin drop in the Hollywood audience.)

We have noted here previously that McConaughey nearly stole the show at Wolf of Wall Street despite a sparse few minutes at the very beginning of the movie. I will also confess that I was relieved that Leonardo, Jonah Hill, Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts remained in their seats all Sunday night. Maybe there’s more to thespian excellence than a spewing epidemic of the F-word.

I have not seen Dallas Buyer’s Club, recipient of several awards including Matthew’s but I probably will. Our own buyer’s club, this community of long-term investors, celebrated its own annual achievement awards this past weekend too. Manifest Investing and the Mid-Michigan chapter of NAIC teamed up to present this year’s red carpet, black tie, and latte-toting pajama party on Saturday morning. The Guest Knights (Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman and Nick Stratigos) stole the show and the Audience toted home their first Golden Knight. It won’t be their last. The Wisdom of Crowds, Communities and Clubs is formidable, indeed. The awards for 2013:

  • Best Stock Selection (2013): Audience Choice, Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch for Priceline (PCLN)
  • Best Stock Selection (All-Time): Hugh McManus for Southwest Airlines (LUV)
  • Best Picture: Mark Robertson for Crossing Wall Street, highlighting the exploits of one Eddy Elfenbein
  • Best Accuracy (2013): Guest Knights Herb Lemcool and Matt Spielman
  • Best Accuracy (All-Time): Guest Knights Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman & Nick Stratigos
  • Best Relative Return (2013): Ken Kavula
  • Best Relative Return (All-Time): Guest Knights Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman & Nick Stratigos

A wonderful community steeped in collective (and shared) wisdom. Join us for the next Round Table on March 25.

All right. All right. All right. AMEN.

Companies of Interest

I have troubling drumming up much excitement for Issue 3 of the Value Line Investment Survey.

Maybe it’s the average Quality Rank of 57. Or the average EPS Stability of 55.

This week’s update batch is chock full of companies that get whipsawed by economic tides … and that makes them non-core in our investing universe. There are a few exceptions — like some of the specialty chemical companies, some of David L. Babson’s places to remain vigilant for price swoons. But for the most part, these companies can be treacherously volatile on the operating performance side. And that obviously translates to the stock prices. It’s generally a pretty good idea to double check against S&P fair values for the companies in this batch.

Materially Stronger: Interdigital (IDCC), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Avery Dennison (AVY), Magellan Midstream (MMP), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA), Minerals Technology (MTX)

Materially Weaker: Encana (ECA), American Vanguard (AVD), Arch Coal (ACI), Boardwalk Pipeline (BWP), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), Walter Energy (WLT)

Morningstar P/FV Nudges

The average price-to-fair value (P/FV) for the companies in this week’s update batch — according to Morningstar — is 99%.

S&P P/FV Nudges

The average price-to-fair value (P/FV) for the companies in this week’s update batch — according to S&P — is 115%. (!) The two research giants clearly have a difference of opinion this week.

Market Barometers

The average Value Line low total return forecast held steady at 3.4%, unchanged from last week.

Coming Attractions

This coming Saturday (March 8), we’ll spend some time with the retirement savings plan for government employees in a FREE webcast. We’ll take a look at the items on the menu — as we do for any qualified plan — take a look at how these components have performed, and some perspective on the outlook.

Time: 10:30 ET

Please feel free to share this opportunity with friends and family who have access to the Thrift Savings Plan. “Seating” is limited.

Registration: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/146-a-few-moments-with-thrift-savings-plan-march-8-2014

Round Table: Last Call!

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The February Round Table will get underway at 10:30 AM ET as our noble knights and damsels gather on the red carpet and mingle in the Green Room — sponsored by Caesarstone. The Pavilion management team would like to thank the overnight campers for not building a campfire on the red carpet and for maintaining order while celebrating with your “tailgate among the Golden Knights.”

Stocks likely to be discussed:

  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Caesarstone (CSTE)
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • Fossil (FOSL)
  • Stericycle (SRCL)
  • Walgreen (WAG)

Come out for this FREE webcast and see how many Golden Knight statues that Ken Kavula and Hugh McManus abscond again this year.

Register via: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/143-round-table-march-1-2014

Round Table: Standing Room Only?

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Queue Dozing?

If this persists, we may have to go to assigned seating for Pavilion seats at next year’s Round Table Awards?

Some of these long-term investors have camped out to save their place in the queue.

“Dude, if you’re gonna go with Southwest Airlines cattle car seating programs, we’re going to have to resort to this. But no worries, we do this all the time at places like Duke or Michigan State University.”

Yes, it’s true that Southwest Airlines (LUV) is in the running for one of the most prestigious categories on Saturday morning.

“No. We’re not cold. It’s not like we’re doing this in Michigan … or New York … or Wisconsin. This is a cyber event, Silly! Besides, word on the street is that Ken Kavula has been red hot with his Round Table picks lately. We want to know how hot.”

True. But you’ve got the pajamas optional part right. Attendees are welcome to drop in with a cup of coffee and don their favorite casual attire. There is no truth to the rumor that Kathy Griffin or Joan Rivers will be doing fashion commentary tomorrow. I wouldn’t rule out a few pushups by Jack Palance, particularly if he’s nudged by Billy Crystal or Ellen Degeneres.

There’s still room and long-term investors are welcome and invited to join us. Yes, you may bring your sleeping bag.

Date: Saturday — March 1, 2014
Time: 11 AM ET (but the red carpet festivities will start at 10:30 AM ET)
Register: https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/475449410

Walgreen (WAG)

expectingalpha Stocks ,

Walgreen (WAG) will likely be suggested as a sell candidate during the February Round Table. The recent surge in stock price ($68) results in a return forecast of approximately 3%. The August-2010 selection was the first Best Selection winner at the first red carpet gala. WAG has been selected by three of us, with the four most recent selections by Hugh McManus.

The stock is overbought with a relative strength index (RSI) of 79.6 and momentum (ROC) is considerable as the stock price has advanced 70.3% over the trailing 12-months.

Make no mistake.

This is an excellent company — and it has been very, very good to us.

Our $7000 invested in Walgreen in the Round Table tracking portfolio is now worth $15,801.

Closing out these positions will lock down 7-of-the-top-20 all-time results for our Round Table since inception.

What is your outlook on Walgreen? Would you sell? Would you consider covered calls for an exit strategy?

Red Carpet Ready!

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The Golden Knight monoliths are in position outside the pavilion. The crowds are already forming for this Saturday’s Round Table award ceremony. We’ll be transmitting the festivities live starting at 10:30 AM from the red carpet.

Six-of-seven of these Round Table regulars BEAT THE MARKET in 2013: Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Hugh McManus, Mark Robertson, Guest Damsels (Kim Butcher, Susan Maciolek, Anne Manning), Guest Knights (Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman, Nick Stratigos) and Audience Selections.

You can still reserve your “pajama-friendly” seat at: https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/475449410

Who will win the following awards?

  • Best Stock Selection (2013)
  • Best Stock Selection (All-Time)
  • Best Picture
  • Best Accuracy (2013)
  • Best Accuracy (All-Time)
  • Best Relative Return (2013)
  • Best Relative Return (All-Time)

Join us as we explore, discover and share our favorite stock ideas for 2014 and beyond …

Red carpet preps

Annual Round Table Awards Ceremony

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Why should you care?

Our Round Table model portfolio has outperformed the Wilshire 5000 by 3-4 percentage points over the last four years.  Each month, our regular panel and a number of successful stock pickers share their favorite current ideas during this FREE webcast.  The result is a tracking portfolio and a source that has generated some rewarding ideas since inception.

Annual Round Table Awards Ceremony

Please join us for our annual red carpet and black tie edition of the Round Table.

We’ll be crowning winners for the best ideas of 2013, the best performers of the last four years … and choosing a few stocks that are currently of interest.

Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Hugh McManus and Mark Robertson have saved a spot for you at the table next to guest damsels Kim Butcher, Susan Maciolek and Anne Manning and guest knights Herb Lemcool, Matt Spielman and Nick Stratigos.

Arrive a few minutes early for the red carpet session (starting at 10:30 AM ET) where we’ll have celebrity interviews and remember, Mid-Michigan sponsored events feature an open microphone if you have a stock or investing topic that you’d like to discuss before the festivities get underway.

The webcast is FREE and you’re all invited to extend an invitation to friends and family.

Registration: https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/475449410

Portfolio Tips & Tricks

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Clubhouse: Portfolio Tips & Tricks

This webcast will feature Ken Kavula demonstrating the use of the dashboard worksheet function for portfolio decision analysis.

When: Tuesday, February 25 (8:30 PM ET)

Where: Register via https://www4.gotomeeting.com/register/227075095

Do some exploring and digging and bring your questions to the session.

Another tip: This isn’t just for investment clubs, folks. Although Ken will focus on best practices for group decision-making, this applies to any long-term investor taking care of a portfolio.

Tin cup worksheet

Am I Diversified? Rest of the Story

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This discussion provides a demonstration of Manifest Investing dashboards, takes a look at “Am I Diversified?” suggesting that a few more stocks and an emphasis on growth/size diversification is in order.

It’s a concept that Jim Cramer might want to consider sharing with his audience.

http://youtu.be/Sdl3UXM0qis

If you would like to explore the portfolio design & management and stock screening tools at subscription-based Manifest Investing, send your name/email/zip code to manifest@manifestinvesting.com for a FREE 90-day test drive.