Fave Five
Our first Fave Five for 2016 — in the face of staggering downside pressure — are five stocks with solid long-term perspectives … relatively stable profitability trends and expectations … and top shelf financial strength. They essentially represent a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are Scripps Networks (SNI), Stericycle (SRCL), Cognizant Technology (CTSH), Priceline (PCLN) and Apple (AAPL).
Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) is 18.0%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 9.4% (annualized).
The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five
Weekend Warriors
The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +0.9% since inception. 53.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.
Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:
- Apple (AAPL)
- Scripps Networks (SNI)
- Stericycle (SRCL) Feb-2014 Round Table nomination by Nick Stratigos (starts at 18:33 of session)
Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warriors
Expecting Alpha 
Own the 3 with the highest PARs. Would like to see capitulation before buying more.
John, how do you define/detect capitulation?
Generally, when in a short or intermediate downtrend as we are now, for market indices as a whole, I will look for extremely larger volume on a down day, oversold on the RSI and perhaps the MACD. Then for individual stocks, something similar so we get rid of the sellers, the weak hands. When I am more aggressive, I will nibble on stocks I like for the long-term, realizing I may be early. When more conservative, I will look for a big up day on volume, then another up 1-2% on volume within a week or so.