SYNA

Fave Five (1/15/2016)

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Fave Five

Stock prices continue to drop faster than the one-year price targets — resulting in a slightly higher overall target for the Value Line 1700 for the next year.

But it’s a work in progress as the reductions continue to suggest eroding expectations. To provide some graphic clarity, we just checked the 1-year outlook with the 100 highest 1-year total return projections among the Value Line 1700 — and updated them. Approximately 20 were unchanged. ONE increased. (ESV) So that means 79% of those companies updated (many of them updated very, very recently) declined.

From a long-term perspective, this likely matters little. But it does suggest that analyst consensus expectations for the next year are continuing to erode … and that will not be helpful when it comes to short-term sentiment.

We’ll be watching the 4Q2015 earnings results as they unfold — and hoping for signs of strength.

Our Fave Five essentially represents a listing of stocks with favorable short term total return forecasts (1 year, according to Analyst Consensus Estimates, or ACE) combined with strong long-term return forecasts and good/excellent quality rankings. This week’s Top One Percenters are Aaron’s (AAN), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Synaptics (SYNA), Under Armour (UA) and Apple (AAPL).

Context: The median 1-year total return forecast (via ACE) for the Value Line 1700 is 26.8%. The median 5-year return forecast (MIPAR) is 9.5% (annualized).

The Long and Short of This Week’s Fave Five

Weekend Warriors

The relative return for the Weekend Warrior tracking portfolio is +0.9% since inception. 53.3% of selections have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since original selection.

Here are some links to fairly recent monthly stock features, Round Table discussions and/or analysis updates for companies in the tracking portfolio:

Tracking Dashboard: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/weekend-warr

Red October: Forbes Best Small Cos (2013)

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It’s that time of year again. Red October. Some people refer to small company stocks as Red Chips and we take our annual look at one of our favorite shopping lists — a tradition that has bagged a number of extremely rewarding investments over the years.

Forbes is out with their annual list of spooky small companies, the Best Small Companies for 2013.

This year’s headliner is Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR). Questcor is among eleven healthcare companies in this year’s list. Acthar is the company’s main drug, used in the treatment of multiple sclerosis, infantile spasms and rheumatic disorders. The drug accounted for the bulk of QCOR’s annual sales total.

The companies featured at the top of Forbes list are:

1. Questcor Pharma (QCOR)
2. Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
3. Proto Labs (PRLB)
4. Invensense (INVN)
5. Sturm, Ruger (RGR)

We’ll audit, confirm, study and whittle the list down to identify our favorites and see how they compare.

But these potential future titans don’t have to be scary. As we’ve hunted down buying opportunities from this annual listing over the last several years, we’ve discovered that the best returns tend to come from the entrants with the highest quality ratings.

Dashboards Past

http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/forbes-best-small-2012
http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/forbes-best-small-2011
http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/forbes-best-small-2010
http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/forbes-best-small-2009
http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/forbes-best-small-2008
http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/forbes-best-small-2007
http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/forbes-best-small-2006

We obviously still like to talk about the companies featured in 2008. These are the selections we bring up at the hair salon or barber shop. There are lessons to be learned (and celebrated) in companies like Neogen (2006), DXP Enterprises (2007), Stratasys (2008), Middleby (2008), Dril-Quip (2008), Boston Beer (2008), Bio-Reference Labs (2008 & 2011), Buffalo Wild Wings (2007-2011), Carbo Ceramics (2012), FactSet Research (2008), Mesa Labs (2012), NIC (2012), Peet’s Coffee (2009), Portfolio Recovery (2007,2010-2011), SolarWinds (2011) and SS&C Technologies (2012).

We note that Bio-Reference Labs (BRLI) is now the second most widely-followed company by MANIFEST subscribers, having first appeared on this list back in 2008.

It’s interesting to see Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) near the top of the list because of the damage done by the likes of from the educational services stocks like Strayer and Capella in recent years … and Quality Systems (2006-2008,2010-2011) — a multiple selection that’s done considerable damage to the all-time results.

It’s been a good year for our Forbes Best Small Company tracking portfolios. All in all, the outperformance accuracy is 51.4% and the relative return since 2006 is +2.3% (17.4% vs. 15.1%).

Halloween: Our Cue To Haunt Some Studies

Ken Kavula noticed that Forbes had released the 2013 listing earlier this week. I hope you’re not surprised that Ken is all over this as one of our favorite small company advocates.

So we start whittling with all 100 thanks to Ken:

http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/forbes-best-100-small-2013

We’ll require a minimum growth forecast of at least 10%, a quality ranking of 80 or better, and a return forecast greater than 11%. The screening results will be maintained here:

http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/forbes-best-small-2013?sort=proj_ann_ret

Here’s the results of auditing the 100 candidates … a short list of companies with small company growth characteristics, exceptional quality … that appear to be attractively priced.

The difference between tricks and treats? Quality.

Synaptics (SYNA)

expectingalpha Stocks

The Round Table knights decided to “sell” Synaptics (SYNA) from the Round Table tracking portfolio at the January session.  As shown, Synaptics was added to the portfolio back in October 2010 — and has outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since then.

Syna model 20130129

The stock price has moved from $22 to $36 over the last few months and in the absence of any large fundamental upgrades (growth or profitability forecasts) the return forecast has dropped to low single digits.  We also note substantial potential resistance near current price levels. Note the substantial price move over the last three months.
Syna chart 20130129