Value Line Low Total Return Screen (3/8/2013)

Companies of Interest

The average low total return forecast for Value Line’s Issue 3 is 6.6%, dwelling below the group average (7.2%) of all of the companies in the Value Line Investment Survey.

So the opportunities are clearly fewer and in this case, farther between. Keep in mind that we generally restrict the quality ranking to the top two quintiles (Quality > 60) for purposes of this list. It might not hurt to brush up on either your Portuguese or French for the companies that survive and bubble to the top of this week’s return forecast screen:

And while you’re brushing up on your French, take note that the long-term low price forecast for Blackberry (BBRY) ratcheted up from $7 to $14 this week. To all you doubters and haters of the company-formerly-known-as-RIMM, you might look up pendulum in your French dictionary. How do pendulums fit when it comes to deep value speculation?

Materially Stronger: Marathon Oil (MRO), Viasat (VSAT), Valero Energy (VLO), SBA Communications (SBAC), Fuller H.B. (FUL), Blackberry (BBRY)

Materially Weaker: Petrobras (PBR), Rhino Resource (RNO), Newfield Exploration (NFX), PVR Partners (PVR), Consolidated Energy (CNX), ConocoPhillips (COP), New Jersey Resources (NJR)

Market Barometers

The Value Line low total return forecast held steady at 7.2%, staying at last week’s levels.

A New Barometer to Ponder

We might think of it as another log on the market barometer fire, but Chicagoland Conference keynote speaker Chuck Carlson offered up one of his favorites for the audience to consider. He tracks the percentage of stocks above their 200-day trailing average as an indicator to get either (1) more cautious in a frothy market or (2) more adventuresome while everybody else runs for the hills. This graph is published in Investor’s Business Daily but it’s also available for FREE and at your fingertips at any time by graphing $NYA200R using www.stockcharts.com as shown here.

During the depths of the Great Recession the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day trailing average dropped under 2%!!! See circled area on the multi-year chart. When everyone else panics, study your companies carefully and find your wallet. At the opposite end, spending some time above 80% or 90% can portend a correction. We’re currently hovering near 80% and vulnerable to a correction at the present.

Chuck Carlson is a community favorite and long-time champion/advocate for individual investors and what we try to achieve. We’ve featured his Dow Theory and low cost investing work often over the years. And in Chicago, we got to see him respond to a devastating case of laryngitis — nearly rendering him without a voice. But the show must go on and it did … Chuck delivered to an appreciative gathering of long-term investors. Thanks, Chuck.

Three Stooge Group in the Windy City

Photo Credit: twm1340 via Compfight cc

It’s that time of year. It’s in the air. You might even say it’s in the wind.

Whether we wrap the theme around March Madness or simply the advent of educational event season, we spent the weekend in Chicago at an investing conference developed and delivered by a coalition of local investment education volunteers. The Chicagoland Investment Conference was well done and kudos to the team. Ken Kavula and I are honored to be invited and included in the festivities.

Howard “Bunny” Mack. Photo Credit: Deb Severson

Speaking of madness, I’m not sure we can take the master of ceremonies (Howard Mack, President – Chicagoland Chapter) all too seriously when he’s trotting around wearing Trix rabbit ears (General Mills presented at the event) while channeling Playboy bunnies and referring to the closing Stock Talk panel participants as “Three Stooges” but he did. Seriously, the crowd seemed to enjoy the banter and discussions as Ken Kavula, Mark Robertson and Doug Gerlach shared some thoughts and stock study ideas to take home.

Ken Kavula reminded the audience of successful selections made at one of the inaugural Stock Talk panels at the Chicago National Convention for NAIC held in Schaumburg a few years ago. See BINC Stock Talk 2008

Most of all, this Stock Talk panel reminds and underscores why-we-gather and emphasizes the power of what-we-do gathered in community, sharing and exploring investment ideas.

Doug Gerlach, Ken Kavula and Mark Robertson. Photo Credit: Deb Severson

Ken’s suggestions for the audience included Mesa Labs (MLAB), NIC (EGOV) and  Aerovironment (AVAV). EGOV innovatively pursues IT projects for predominantly state (and local) government agencies — seeking to optimize and improve things like making it easier to drive away with a new driver’s license.

Doug’s study roll call included Echo Global Logistics (ECHO), Yandex (YNDX) and SodaStream (SODA) — and yes, he tied sulzer bottles into the Stooge theme. His final selection was Mistras Group (MG), a worthy engineering & construction company to study.

Any study of ECHO might also include: CH Robinson (CHRW) and Expeditor’s (EXPD).

Mark’s selections included Qualcomm (QCOM) courtesy of Houston’s Anne Manning and the Mid-Michigan Round Table (our monthly stock discovery webcast), AFLAC (AFL) and the hospitalization of the duck … and a nudge to study Cognizant Technology (CTSH) and to explore the other candidates in our Ivory Soap Stock Screen.

At the end of the day, Howard removed the rabbit ears (probably went home and tried to see if they improved his TV reception) and can rest assured that he, Dean Hartley and their Chicago team favorably affected the investing future of at least one person several times over.

Challenge Club (February 2013)

Challenge Club – February 2013

It’s more than a mantra. When things get a little tough, battle-tested investors go shopping.

And they go shopping with a specific shopping list in hand — a quest to identify leadership companies selling at attractive prices.

The Challenge Club has more than a little cash on hand (10.9% of total assets) so we need some candidates.

Bring out your best.

Current dashboard: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/challenge-club

Register to attend Saturday morning’s meeting/webcast at:

http://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/113-challenge-club-february-23-2013

Presidential Portfolios on Parade

Presidential Portfolios on Parade

Happy President’s Day out there, everybody. Buy some furniture and boost the local economy. It’s part of our mantra. Invest in the Best, the leaders. So it makes sense to be presidential with our portfolios.

Have you ever wondered about the various published dashboards at Manifest Investing? Are you relatively unfamiliar with our demonstration portfolios?

Dashboard Diagnostics: February 19 at 8:30 ET

On Tuesday night, February 19, we’ll take a closer look at the various demonstrations starting with our flagship Tin Cup model portfolio. Launched in 1995, this model portfolio invests the maximum amount possible in a 401(k) simulation under the assumption that investing in individual stocks has been possible since inception. The selection methodology is consistent and based on a mechanical approach made possible by the Value Line Investment Survey (and subject to Manifest Investing interpretation.)

We describe Tin Cup as Schlossian — a perpetual tribute to Walter Schloss. Walter was a resident of Graham-and-Doddsville. Tin Cup is currently at $1,034,356 and has outperformed the general stock market 4-of-the-last-6 years. The relative return for this model portfolio, since inception, is approximately +7% (versus the Value Line Arithmetic Average).

Other portfolios that we’ll spend some time with include:

  • Solomon Select Tracking Portfolio: Monthly Stock Selection Performance
  • Hoard vs. Herd: Monthly Fund-Based Qualified Plan
  • Heavy Hogs 2013: Favorite selections by Groundhog VII entrants
  • Round Table Tracking Portfolio
  • BareNaked Million
  • Core Diem

Music, Generosity & One World. One Dream.

Watching last night’s Grammy Awards, I was once again reminded of many things. From Faith Hill’s “Don’t Hurry … But Don’t Wait” to the magic of Michael Jackson and his pile of awards. But for some reason, I was reminded distinctly of Mother Theresa. Did you know that Mother Theresa won the inaugural Templeton Award?  In this feature from August 2008, we honored the legacy of lifetime achievement in investing by one Sir John Templeton.

One World, One Dream

Sir John Templeton (1912-2008) started his Wall Street career in 1937 and went on to create some of the world’s largest and most successful international investment funds. He was called by Money magazine “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century.”

Sir John Templeton gave us a legacy of long-term investing wisdom. Sadly, he passed away during July (2008) at the age of 95. A Rhodes Scholar, his adventures spanned the globe — seeking opportunity independent of domicile. His religion and philanthropy were very important to him. Did you know that Mother Theresa received the inaugural Templeton award, valued at $2 million? The monetary award is what it is because Sir John always wanted his faith-based awards to be worth more than the Nobel Prize. Inspired by MANIFEST subscriber Frank Bower, let’s take a look at some of Templeton’s guiding principles.

Over the years, Sir John Templeton published a number of articles and made speeches about his investing principles. This list was culled by John Christy from memories of working with Templeton for Forbes. Let’s visit these themes in our own words and methods.

For more: One World. One Dream.

Of Tortoises and Ground Hogs

Thriving on the Backs of Our Shell-Bound Colleagues

This is a modified version of a post from the March 2001 issue of Better Investing magazine.  As our Groundhog celebration continues — and even as it winds down — we’re reminded of a heritage of long-term investing success, steeped in patience, discipline and yes, rituals.

 Mark  Robertson

Punxsutawney, PA. (Population: 6,782)– February 2, 2001

On this day, a small town just northeast of Pittsburgh finds its way to the hearts and minds of people worldwide. The principal inhabitant of Gobbler’s Knob, Punxsutawney Phil, plays host to the likes of presidents, news anchors and talk show hosts. In the chilly morning breeze, thousands gather to see whether Phil will observe his shadow — immediately following his stretching exercises, breakfast and morning coffee. For the record, he’s seen his shadow some 90 percent of the time over the last 100 years or so. I doubt that there’s much correlation between his shadow and wintry durations — but the masses gather anyhow.

Saturday Morning

Rituals occupy an important place in our lives. One of the endearing features of monthly investment club meetings is that they encourage a discipline of regularity. Invest regularly. Monthly meetings reinforce. They make it difficult to ignore the prodding that we should regularly contemplate and explore our investment efforts.

When I first started investing, one of my rituals was to make the sojourn to my local bookstore every Saturday morning. The itinerary included a stop for a cup of coffee and a saunter next door for that weekend’s edition of Barron’s. Like all newbies, I watched CNBC and checked my stock prices far too frequently.

Too frequently? How much is “enough?”

On the Backs of Roaring Tortoises

It’s a good question. In fact, it’s a great question. It was presented to me by a reporter from Forbes not so long ago. It stirred the memory of a question to Ed Finn, publisher and editor of Barron’s, delivered from the floor of Congress 1999, after Mr. Finn had concluded his keynote remarks. (Those memories were recently rekindled while listening to Mr. Finn’s keynote remarks at last week’s MoneyShow in Orlando)

“How do we reconcile the apparent reality that investment clubs achieve strong performance levels despite the fact that most of them only meet for an hour every month or so?” Mr. Finn suggested that the investment professionals might want to think about that — and consider becoming a little less active in their execution of transactions.

The Forbes reporter’s question tiptoed up to the question again. “Once you develop a solid comprehension of the modern investment club approach to investing, and your portfolio is in place, how much time would you say you dedicate to the management of your personal assets?”

I thought about it. There’s an element of “hobby” and certainly entertainment to the things that we do as investors. Clearly, some of us spend more time than others exploring and learning. But this question had a deeper nature to it. How much was essential? I thought about it some more and said, “8-10 hours per year.” That may stagger some of you. But I’m convinced that my impressions are correct in this regard. My thoughts drift to conversations with national event attendees. These discussions are a distinct privilege. “You’ve done well, very well — for decades — what’s it take?”

With a twinkle and a smile, several answer the question with stories of cruises and their best days on the golf course. With a wink, others confide that much like Punxsutawney Phil, they drag out their portfolio once a year to see whether the sun is still shining. With regard to my personal holdings, it’s no exaggeration whatsoever. Following a recent investment conference presentation, I was discussing a mutual holding with an attendee and was pleasantly surprised to learn of a large increase in price that had occurred in the last month or so.

Eight, maybe 10 hours per year? It’s more than possible. For many, it’s an absolute reality. Many practitioners spend a couple hours every quarter — checking in on how the management of the companies that they own are performing. Are they pursuing opportunity? Are they doing so profitably? Is the sun shining? How’s their shadow?

Our obsession with tortoises in this issue has a basis in a time-honored heritage. Listen for the roar. Invest regularly, in leadership enterprises, at good prices. Don’t hurry, but don’t wait, either.

Join us at Manifest Investing and Expecting Alpha as we build resources that make sense for your Saturday morning sojourns. We hope our community resources will become a favorite destination for your 8-10 hours per year and beyond.  At Manifest Investing, we’re committed to remaining focused on what really matters: the growth, profitability and valuation characteristics of your holdings and potential holdings — and any threats or opportunities to both.  We’ll do our best to sound the bell of opportunity or the clarion of a threat.  And we know that our collective community will be vigilant and do its best to watch for shadows.

You can’t have a shadow without some sunshine.

Thanksgiving 2010: Of Heroes & Harvests

Gerri Willis of Fox Business News asked about the Beardstown Ladies during an interview this week.  Yes, they’re still in existence and prospering. They’ve added new partners. The media still mangles the facts about that mistake.  The mistake was largely Disney’s — a federal judge agrees with me.  The Ladies committed a human error.  Their performance was better than is perpetually broadcasted.  You can ask Price-Waterhouse about that.  But more importantly, they continue to grow, explore and reach out to remove mystery and fear from investing — enabling a new generation to discover successful long-term investing.  We shared some details in this message from Thanksgiving 2010 …

Thanksgiving is a time for reflection, gratitude and hope and in this case, a rekindling of a very special spirit nestled in the cornfields of Illinois …

Of Heroes and Harvests …

It was a beautiful autumn day in the heartland. I attended a couple of investment club meetings … the first in Mt. Carroll, Illinois — near my home town — and the second in the heart of Illinois in place called Beardstown.

I admired the scenery as the combines and heavy equipment toiled to bring in a robust harvest this year and the highway miles rolled by. I have many friends who are farmers. They work hard. It’s nice to see rewards harvested and smiles even if that farm equipment backed up traffic while migrating from one field to the next. The day included reminders of time-honored traditions and legacies while harboring a surprise or two.

The Beardstown Ladies have been using options for their club portfolio. They’ve been doing it for a while now.

I’ll let that one sink in.

The Beardstown Ladies have been an inspiration to a generation of investors. I count them among my friends and heroes.

Did you know that they have a room in a museum dedicated to their investment club?

Still ruminating on that options thing? We’ll come back to that.

It’s true. During my visit to Beardstown, I discovered that the city was once the epicenter of Illinois, larger than Chicago. Beardstown is strategically located on the Illinois river and was a center of commerce back in the 1800s. Abraham Lincoln launched his presidential campaign in Beardstown.

The traditional town square in the center of town hosted one of the Lincoln-Douglas debates.

And down the hall from the Beardstown Ladies room in the museum … is the court room where Lincoln practiced law. It’s the scene of one of the most famous legal arguments. The case is known as the almanac trial. Lincoln was defending the son of some good samaritans from his youth. (They had literally taken young Abe in when he was essentially homeless.) Their son was on trial for murder and Lincoln (think Perry Mason) tripped up the key witness by pointing out that the “full moon used under testimony” was no where to be found in a Farmer’s Almanac.

Yes, the Beardstown Ladies are using options. But that’s not the best surprise.

The club is getting larger and attracting some younger people to participate.

The Ladies meet in the basement of the town hall shown — a former Carnegie Library, typical of those sprinkled throughout the Midwest.

You Can Do This. We’ll Show You How

The words still resonate. I had discovered long-term investing back in the mid-1990s … formed a family and friends investment club, but frankly it probably was hanging in the balance.

And then I attended a luncheon featuring the Beardstown Ladies, Betty Sinnock and Doris Edwards. You can do this. We’ll show you how.

It’s a theme we hope to live and extend at Manifest Investing.

The first of Carnegie’s public libraries displays the motto, “Let there be light” at the entrance.

His first library in the United States was built in 1889 in Braddock, Pennsylvania, home to one of the Carnegie Steel Company’s mills. Initially, Carnegie limited his support to a small number of towns in which he had an interest. From the 1890s on, his foundation funded a dramatic increase in number of libraries. This coincided with the rise of women’s clubs in the post-Civil War period, which were most responsible for organizing efforts to establish libraries, including long-term fundraising and lobbying within their communities to support operations and collections.

The genesis of the Beardstown Ladies was the Business and Professional Women’s association.

A few miles to the north in Mt. Carroll, I had the opportunity to spend some time in the shadow of yet another Carnegie Library … on another Midwestern town square. The Nest Egg investors sport a portfolio that I’d not only be proud to own, I basically do. Their collection of community favorites and promising companies mirrors our most widely-followed stocks.

That’s not a surprise.

The surprise is they’re expanding and welcoming new ladies to the club. On this day, they welcomed our family (including my Mom and Dad) to their gathering. The leadership of ladies like Mary Ann Hutchison and Wilma Colehour is making a difference. Interest is growing with a younger generation and we’re hopeful that these seeds germinate and continue to thrive.

We look forward to watching future harvests and celebrating nurtured nest eggs.

This is just one more nest egg that can point to the Beardstown Phenomenon as a powerful influence and inspiration.

Back to Beardstown

I’m still working on our nest egg. But the Beardstown Ladies have made a significant difference for me and my family as we’ve sent two children to college and launched a business. As we bow our heads on Thanksgiving, I will be thinking of many blessings. I want all of the Ladies to know that they’re pretty high on the list and I told them that as we gathered.

We talked about a few stocks. I watched them thoroughly discuss (and sell) a very long-term holding.

They asked me for some thoughts and I shared the significance and relevance that we’ve discovered with the Value Line low total return forecast.

And then … one of the ladies whispered, “What do you think of options being used by investment clubs?”

I slumped into my chair extruding a “fake sigh.” Most of them seemed to be either “giggling” or looking at their shoes. 🙂

“You mean to tell me the Beardstown Ladies are using options for the club?”

“Yep. We’ve been doing it for a while.”

“Really?”

“Homer, our broker in Peoria, has been teaching and helping us with it. What do you think?”

“One, I think you’re in good hands. Two, I think it’s a great idea. The foundation of investment clubs is learning-by-doing. Explore. Discover. Fail. Succeed. Together. Some of my other heroes have been urging me to better understand conservative options strategies like covered calls and protective puts for the last few years. I’m learning right along with you.”

We’ll launch a new demonstration in January — taking our [BareNaked Million] — and deploying options strategies in full view. We’ll call it [Covered Million] and hope to demonstrate some incremental success using some of the conservative options strategies we’ve become more aware of.

Exploring. Learning. Discovering together. I’m sometimes asked if I believe investment clubs are “dead.” These two clubs provide strong evidence to the contrary and we don’t need an almanac to check sunrise or sunset to see it. Youthful exuberance inspiring the next harvest … it combines with the knowledge that every harvest sunset is also a harvest sunrise. It’s just a matter of perspective.

Happy Thanksgiving, everybody.