Value Line Low Total Return Screen (9/27/2013)

Not Much To Write Home About

For the first time in recent memory, there are no “materially weaker” companies in this week’s roll call. But before launching into celebration and exuberance, there’s not many “materially stronger” companies on the list … and the downward adjustments, albeit lower in magnitude … still manage to deliver a slightly lower overall return forecast for the group. There were slight reductions in the long-term forecasts for a number of home builders, including the likes of Pulte (PHM) and D.R. Horton (DHI).

The issue 6 update is usually a little more stable — as the outlook and fundamental characteristics of steady, reliable companies like Procter & Gamble (PG), Kimberly Clark (KMB) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL) are always less volatile.

In the words of 2012 Groundhog Champion, Bernie Meister, “it’s about time that these research agencies upped their outlook on Lumber Liquidators.”

At the same time, the average price-to-fair-value ratio at S&P for the companies in this week’s update batch is 110%. So if you’re going to shop among them, shop well.

Companies of Interest

Materially Stronger: Covanta Holding (CVA), Lumber Liquidators (LL)

Materially Weaker: None

Market Barometers

The median Value Line low total return forecast (VLLTR) sagged slightly to 4.3%, down from 4.4% last week — and continuing to hover near historical lows.

The Wilshire 5000 continues its march to new highs. Remember … the relative strength index (RSI) is signaling potentially overbought at RSI>70 — but can stay in this condition for a very long time. Momentum is still solid with the average stock up 22% over the last nine months. Continue to shop for high-quality with sufficient returns as protection versus the next correction, recession and/or bear market.

Value Line Low Total Return Screen (9/20/2013)

Hey There … Canadians & Communication

This week continues the trend with more companies featured with weakening long-term return forecasts compared to those that can be deemed “Materially Stronger.” In general, we continue to see across-the-board modest erosion of fundamentals all the while the market “froths” its way to new all-time highs. Keep shopping (momentum is obviously intact) but be careful out there — focus on seeking high-quality candidates.

We’re not as high on BCE (BCE) (think Bell Canada) as Value Line but this provider of communication services to residential and business customers in Canada is compelling with a 4% yield. Value Line may have the low total return forecast in the range of 12%, but factoring in expectations from S&P, Morningstar and the analyst consensus leads us closer to high single digits. As shown in the accompanying chronicle (time series of return forecasts, quality rankings & stock price) BCE trades in a fairly tight range … has seen a downward draft in stock price (with a corresponding boost in return forecast) … and has generally improving quality characteristics.

Inteliquent (IQNT) makes an appearance here as “materially stronger” and has been something of a community favorite for a while. Investors will recognize the company as the company formerly known as Neutral Tandem. Long story short, the company has been under investigation for accounting practices (recently cleared) was expected to need to restate results for multiple years (as it turns out, it doesn’t) and recent analyst estimates have been surging in positive directions as shown here.

Some of you will remember our deep value story on Select Comfort a while back. Nutshell: Sometimes companies crater. Sometimes those companies have decent financial strength (B+ or better) with NO long-term debt.

Last we checked, Select Comfort had rebounded several thousand percent from its lows.

In the case of Inteliquent, we may be looking at a rebound-in-progress. Decent financial strength (B+) and NO LONGTERM DEBT. In the words of Value Line, “… the result of the investigation was favorable and asserted that no financials would need to be restated. These unranked shares may appeal to patient investors. Based on the earnings growth we are envisioning in the years ahead, the stock should continue to rebound over the pull to 2016-2018.”

Companies of Interest

Materially Stronger: Rite Aid (RAD), Inteliquent (IQNT)

Materially Weaker: Titan (TWI), Windstream (WIN), Pharmerica (PMC), Arris (ARRS), Polycom (PLCM), Superior Industries (SUP), Bioscrip (BIOS), TRW Automotive (TRW), Sprint (S), Regis (RGS)

Market Barometers

The median Value Line low total return forecast (VLLTR) remained at 4.4% this week.

Next Week’s Event

The September Round Table featuring selection and analysis of the knight’s favorite stocks right now will be held next Monday night, September 23 at 8:30 PM ET. For more information and to register, go to: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/129-round-table-september-23-2013

When Squirrels Get Hot Feet

 

In honor of that huge geographical electrical outage ten years ago this weekend, here’s a throw back to a Better Investing column I wrote at the time.

“Water, water, everywhere and not a drop to drink.”

Alex, our 13-year-old, and I were returning from a couple of days of camping and canoeing in northern Michigan. About 90 minutes from home, I decided to check in with my spouse. “All circuits are busy. Please try your call again later.” For me,“later” is approximately five seconds whenever I encounter that message. So I tried again. “All circuits are busy.” It became obvious that something was amiss because I continued to redial every 5 to 10 minutes for nearly two hours. “All circuits are busy.”

“All circuits are busy.”

We rolled into town to find all the traffic lights out of service, with the expected gridlock. A five-minute spin across town turned into a one-hour start-and-stop marathon. It was nearly 100 degrees outside. People really like their air conditioners when the temperature exceeds two digits. In fact, people were liking their air conditioners — a whole lot — from Indiana to Maine.

All Circuits Are Busy

As of a few days later, the cause is yet unknown. We do know that a power plant on the shores of Lake Erie tripped, much like the circuit breakers in your house — removing several hundred megawatts of electricity from the supply. In an instant, power was rerouted along an alternate conduit.

As it turned out, the telephone circuits weren’t the only ones that were real busy. The additional power did the same thing that your spouse or teenagers do to a home circuit when they plug a hair dryer, a CD player, the toaster oven and their cell phone recharger into the same outlet. It got hot. Birds and squirrels got hot feet and a really big circuit breaker did exactly what it was supposed to.

It said, “No.”

At the same time, a power plant on the shores of Lake Michigan decided to misbehave. Slumbering gremlins all over this electrical grid decided to hold a party and wreak some havoc. They wreaked well. The power plants in the eastern Midwest could no longer keep up.

An automatic appeal from the wires and power plants in Ohio and Michigan requested more power from plants in New York and Maine. Other wires got hot. The gremlins were ecstatic at the amount of trouble they had started. Factories, businesses and residences from Michigan to New York were plunged into darkness.

Hot Dogs!

I turned on the radio. I once had a job where the map of the North American Electric Reliability Council hung on my wall. The map displayed every wire and power plant in North America. I explained what was happening to Alex. He listened carefully as the man on the radio confirmed that we’d probably be without power for three or four days. How did Alex assess the situation? “Cool.”

Alex was probably the only one using that characterization at the time. We diverted our attention from the traffic jam and steered into the parking lot of our local Home Depot. A stack of batteries, three new flashlights, a couple of propane tanks, some charcoal and several hot dogs later (yes, Home Depot sells hot dogs, too,) I was beginning to understand “cool.”

The lower level of our home became an extended campout and the scene of a number of Axis and Allies board game battles. We barbequed nearly everything in the freezer and had a feast.

But we had water at the campsite in northern Michigan.

We learned that our local water supply is quite dependent on electricity, too. No matter how hard we turned the faucet,we had no water. Living without electricity is a challenge and can even be “cool” for a while. Living without water is not.

Please do try this at home. Throw the main breaker. Turn the valve and shut off the water supply to your home. See how long you can last. I believe you’ll pine for the water before the “juice.” You’ll probably be reminded to establish some jugs of water in your basement. We were.

Alex was despondent when the lights came back on. We promised each other that we’d leave the television off for one more day. When Internet service returned, I spent some time learning about infrastructure and water supplies. I refreshed my memory about electricity reserve margins and reliability. I’ve added a backup power supply for our local municipal water pumps to my list for Santa. We need to think about whether we have enough power plants and wires. Where will we get tomorrow’s water?

The development of electricity, water and waste water projects — at home and abroad — is vital for growth and probably represents opportunity for strategic investors.

Alex always defeats me at Axis and Allies when my infrastructure breaks down.

Value Line Low Total Return Screen (8/16/2013)

Companies of Interest

Materially Stronger: Google (GOOG), Symantec (SYMC), Pandora (P), Fiserv (FISV)

Materially Weaker: United Online (UNTD), Microsoft (MSFT)1, Paychex (PAYX)2, Principal Financial Group (PFG)

1 – smaller reduction in expectations from $45 to $40 on the long-term forecast.
2 – smaller reduction in expectations from $50 to $45 on the long-term forecast.

Market Barometers

The median Value Line low total return forecast (VLLTR) is now 4.3%, down from 4.4% last week.

You could sub-title this one, ROC and Roll. Yes, stock prices are widely overbought (RSI>70) but the challenge is that they can stay this way for a very, very long time.

Yes, we think it’s prudent to selectively sell and trim lower-quality stocks from portfolios as conditions merit — but so long as the momentum persists, this still doesn’t feel like a run for the hills moment. I might trim carefully, but I’d not significantly raise cash until the rate of change (ROC) approaches and crosses over zero.

If that ROC crossover combines with a sub-zero swoon for the $USHL indicator (with return forecasts still at historical lows), I’d go into “capital preservation mode” on all personal accounts.

Value Line Low Total Return Screen (6/21/2013)

Companies of Interest

Both CVS (CVS) and Walgreen (WAG) have low total return forecasts of 8.5% during this week’s update. But this week’s nod/tribute is to those of you who have suggested that it was feasible that Rite-Aid (RAD) with its lowest-in-field quality ranking had a viable chance of recovering and cited a change in management that has steadily been working to improve conditions over the last few years. Although still a work in progress, profitability appears to have found thin black ink. Rite-Aid is now at $3.00 up from lows of $0.20 (+1400% since 2009) and some turnaround speculators have been rewarded.

The three companies with the highest fundamental and technical rankings are; Telefonica (TEF), Gentex (GNTX) and Qualcomm (QCOM).

Materially Stronger: Arris Group (ARRS), LKQ (LKQ), Rite Aid (RAD)

Materially Weaker: F5 Networks (FFIV), Nokia (NOK), Frontier (FTR), Cincinnati Bell (CBB), Telephone & Data Systems (TDS), U.S. Cellular (USM)

Market Barometers

The median Value Line low total return (VLLTR) forecast is now 6.2%, down from 6.3% last week.

In a normal distribution, the mean plus or minus one standard deviation covers 68.2% of the data. If you use two standard deviations, then you will cover approx. 95.5%, and three will earn you 99.7% coverage. The median low total return forecast since 1999 is 8.5% with a standard deviation of 3.5%. This means that approximately 70% of the time the low total return forecast will be between 5-12%. 96% of the time, the overall low total return forecast will be between a low of 1.5% and a high of 15.5%.

The excursions “north” of 20% (i.e. March 2009) lie outside the 99.5% probability range, because a three standard deviation swing to the upside would be 19%. This is one of the reasons that March 2009 was a back-up-the-truck, perhaps once in a lifetime buying opportunity.

Bottom Fishing (6/13/2013)

In this month’s cover story, we took a closer look at one of the screening methods used by Hugh McManus. In a nutshell, he searches for high-quality companies trading near a selected low price. The current price is compared versus a selected low price which is dependent on the company’s growth rate. The higher the growth rate, the further back Hugh goes in history to compare.

The following results illustrates why he’d avoid Apple (AAPL) and keep in mind that he’s generally disinterested unless this ratio (price-to-selected low price) is less than 25%.

Position screen 20130613

Apple (AAPL)

With products that are pervasive and ubiquitous and the #1 ranking in our MANIFEST 40 most widely-followed stocks, it’s time for Apple to join the Solomon Select tracking portfolio. We’ve waited patiently for the stock price to drop from $705 to $400 and the fundamentals are still very much intact. Our anecdotal analysis of price disruptions on the heels of relative strength breakdowns and breaches in momentum suggests that the worst may be over.

On a CNBC appearance yesterday, Jeff Gundlach confessed that DoubleLine is now “long” Apple after rocking the investing world with his expectation of $300-something while it was soaring in the upper $600s 9-10 months ago.

Growth, Profitability, Valuation

The Manifest Investing sales growth forecast for AAPL is 14.2%.

We’re using 23.2% for the projected net margin. Value Line has a 3-5 year projected net margin of 26.6%.

The median P/E for the period 2008-2017 is 15.2×. We’re using 14x for the projected average P/E.

At the time of selection (5/31/2013), the stock price is $449.73, the projected annual return is 20-21%. The quality RANKING is 98 (Excellent) and the financial strength rating is 90 (A+).

The company has historically held no long-term debt but recently committed to low-interest rate bonds as an offset vehicle (tax optimization) to ‘proxy’ a repatriation of offshore cash reserves to fund buybacks and dividends for shareholders.

Points of View

Morningstar has AAPL with a fair value of $600 for a price-to-fair value ratio of 74% and rates the company a “buy.” S&P rates the company a “strong buy” at fair value of $473.20, or a P/FV of 94%.

Value Line Low Total Return Screen (6/7/2013)

Companies of Interest

All things considered (e.g. return forecast, quality, sentiment, momentum) Total (TOT) still ranks as a favorite among this group of study candidates. S&P agrees, checking in with a fair value of $51.40 and a “buy” rating. Stockcharts.com yields a “bullish” point-and-figure rating with +42.4% price pressure. There is modest potential for P/E expansion and neutral with respect to margin enhancement.

Materially Stronger: American Vanguard (AVD), Conoco Phillips (COP), Ferro (FOE)

Materially Weaker: Walter Energy (WLT), Suncor Energy (SU), Kronos Worldwide (KRO), SBA Communications (SBAC), Viasat (VSAT)

Market Barometers

The median Value Line low total return forecast (VLLTR) is now 6.4%, down from 6.5% last week.