CNBC Stock Draft 2012 (Lead Change)

3 1/2 days until the checkered flag and Research in Motion (RIMM) is doing a pretty good imitation of Joe Frazier in the swimming pool.

See also: CNBC Stock Draft 2012: Photo Finish?

Josh Brown gurgled, “I told you five days is a long time in the stock market. This is painful. It’s like leaving too much time on the clock for Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Ugh.”

And somewhere, Reggie Middleton flashed a googlish grin.

And Herb Greenberg was figuring out what to be testy about.

http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/cnbc-stockdraft-2012

CNBC Stock Draft 2012: Photo Finish?

Photo Credit: Andreas Ebling via Compfight cc

Last year’s CNBC Stock Selection Draft may have started slow, but coming out of the turn and with one week to go — the race is heating up like, well … two billionaires brawling over a vitamin supplement company.

Not to be outdone by any Hollywood movie whether the horse be named Hidalgo, Seabiscuit or Secretariat … Joshua “Reformed Broker” Brown and his horse (RIMM) did their best imitation of a glue factory admission for most of the year as RIMM started excruciatingly slow but has passed the entire field in recent weeks and days. Cue the drama. Meanwhile, Reggie “No Glue Around Here” Middleton has been driving Google (GOOG) and serving up an unhealthy dose of dust for the field.

Only Josh and Reggie have managed to outperform the S&P 500 with their noble steeds. The highlighted entries show the selections and the other companies in the field were left on the cutting room floor at CNBC. (There’s little if any truth to the rumor that Cramer and Herb were still milling about, dishing out grief over the unchosen/ignored winners … except that Greenberg was notably grumpy about it)

The following provides the current value of $100 (each) invested in the field on 4/25/2012.

Coming down the stretch:

1. Brown (RIMM)
2. Middleton (GOOG)
3. Najerian (SBUX)
4. Altucher (AAPL)
5. Doolittle (DELL)
6. Hickey (JCP)
7. “Elmer” Adami (RSH)

Current dashboard: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/cnbc-stockdraft-2012

Reflections on Inflections

“There is nothing more dangerous than to build a society, with a large segment of people in that society, who feel that they have no stake in it; who feel that they have nothing to lose. People who have a stake in their society, protect that society, but when they don’t have it, they unconsciously want to destroy it.”

— Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

While accepting the Nobel peace prize, Dr. King said:

“I have the audacity to believe that peoples everywhere can have three meals a day for their bodies, education and culture for their minds, and dignity, equality and freedom for their spirits. I believe that what self-centered men have torn down, men other-centered can build up. I still believe that one day mankind will bow before the altars of God and be crowned triumphant over war and bloodshed, and nonviolent redemptive goodwill will proclaim the rule of the land.”

The grandfather of the modern investment club movement, George Nicholson, drew many parallels to the potential of capitalism and freedom for solving some of the larger challenges of this world. On this day spent reflecting on the triumphs of Dr. King, I find many parallels between his words and those of George Nicholson.

From the Investors Manual for the Individual Investor (1984, page 7): “Capitalism will work better if people …”

  • understand investing,
  • are educated to do so successfully, and
  • intelligently provide capital to expanding industries.

“Investment education is essential to good citizenship in the modern world.”

Many parallels.

Mark Robertson

Reform: Center Stage

Brown_JoshuaI’m relatively new to the world of Twitter, or as some have dubbed it, the Twitterverse. And one of the things that participants will often do (usually on Fridays) is share lists of resources (their “tweeps”) where they find value, entertainment or some combination thereof. I’ve been constructing my own “Follow Friday” list (stay tuned) but wanted to take a moment to commend a colleague on a moment that remains oblivious to way too many people.

First, I was quite taken with the balance of humility and pride on full display when Josh Brown recently encountered and shared a moment with Art Cashin.

But that’s not THE moment. For me it was a fleeting moment (a few days ago) on CNBC’s Fast Money Half Time segment. The moderator was grilling Joe Terranova about some “call” that he’d made a while back and he was … somewhat relentless. In fact, the discourse resulted in Joe saying “I was wrong” more than a few times. The moderator seemed to take a small measure of sadistic enjoyment while rubbing salt. As it teetered on awkward, the camera panned to Josh. Slightly paraphrasing:

“Hey. Hold on. Our business is a humbling business and the market takes no prisoners. We get things wrong. We extract lessons and try to do better. We’re in this together and frankly, I respect that Joe is willing to share that he was wrong and how his outlook has evolved. It’s an absolute demonstration that he’s really in this business and I think we all need to respect our colleagues as we all try to achieve success.”

And somewhere, a pin dropped.

Backstage Wall Street (A version of my Amazon book review from March-2012)

Having been involved in investment education and research for nearly 20 years, I think Josh has a timely, transparent message of hope. Seriously, the book is a little like Boiler Room and Gordon Gecko meet Jerry Maguire.

Continuing on the cinematic theme, I’ve only read a few books in my lifetime in one sitting. One was Alien. Another was Babson’s Brad Perry’s tome Winning The Investment Marathon and Jurassic Park was a pretty enthralling read also. I can now add Backstage Wall Street to the list. I’m not sure which one was the most frightening, when I finished Alien I didn’t want to turn out the lights.

Backstage is equally unsettling and Josh lays a foundation and history as he describes the “evolution” of Wall Street and the grinding of sausage. I actually think Josh Brown is part of a potential re-awakening of investing as it once was (or was at least intended to be) … a people’s capitalism with a potential outcome that would make Sigourney Weaver proud.

A rudimentary return to principled capital markets … a New Reformation is clearly in order. If you’ve been investing for some time but harbor reservations about the way things are, this might be Chapter One of a new day. If you find investing terrifying when it comes to your 401(k), you might find some relief that there are some advocates and champions for the way things ought to be.

Is there hope?

I think so.

I’m not sure who plays Josh in the movie, but it’s not Vin Diesel or Charlie Sheen. For the sake of millions of afflicted investors and citizens out there, reform at will.

Thanks, Josh.

P.S. For those who want to play along, my Twitter address is @manifestinvest. Joshua Brown’s is @ReformedBroker.

Duct Tape & Mission Salvation

As they polish up those Oscar statues and we get ready to do the same for our Knights of the Round Table, we think about priceless tools, better days and red carpets …

We watched Apollo 13 (AGAIN) this weekend. Do Tom Hanks or Ron Howard movies ever get old? The movie is packed with drama and splashed down on the Hollywood red carpet with a wonderfully deserved nine Oscars, including Best Picture.

Maybe it’s my engineering heritage, but my favorite sequence comes with about three days left in their return voyage when Mission Control discovers that the cabin is becoming progressively poisonous as carbon dioxide levels are climbing in the lunar module. In a real life MacGyver moment, a team of engineers in Houston scramble and put together an air scrubber using a pile of junk including packing materials and a variety of … well, garbage. But the star of the moment is duct tape. “Aquarius, you need about three feet, Jim.” “Just tear off a strip about as long as your arm.”

As Kevin Bacon fights to avoid passing out, the duct tape kicks in and the air purification is underway.

Sometimes our portfolios need a little duct tape. As roman candles flame out and cruise missiles reach their destination, there are times when plain old ordinary (in some cases, non-growth) companies can be provide a significant booster stage for our portfolios. Our Tin Cup model portfolio owes a great deal to Wolverine Worldwide and AutoZone back in 2000-2002 while the booster rocket debris was landing all around us.

“Houston, we don’t have a problem so long as we have enough duct tape.”

Of Grandmothers & Garage Sales

[From February 2003, Better Investing] One of my favorite goldies — this one hits really, really close to home… about pockets of priceless opportunities …

As our extended family gathered over Thanksgiving to be with Grandma Vi, memories were rekindled. My wife’s grandmother is the matriarch of that side of our family. Her wisdom and serenity provide an exemplary ambition for all of us. Grandparents play a special role in our lives and the moments that our children have spent in Grand company are, as the commercial says, “Priceless.”

Grandma Vi lives for a good game of cards. Of course, she defines a good game of rummy as one that she wins.

My memories are many. But at the same time, they’re too few. I can always use more of those essential reminders that better shape days ahead. Tom Brokaw writes of Greater Generations,and Grandma Vi is among those he writes about.

We picked her up at the airport one wintry afternoon a few years ago.

Instead of relaying her to other relatives for the remainder of her voyage, we decided to keep her at our house overnight. It was a selfish moment. We plead guilty with no remorse.

As the card games continued well into the night, she shared stories of working as “Rosie Riveter” on an assembly line during World War II. Somehow, raising four children under those conditions places raising two today in different light. My wife and I learned things we never knew about toughness and coincident gentleness.

I shall never forget the look on her face as we described, and she noticed for the first time, how much we pay for a cup of Starbucks coffee.

A crowning moment came at a garage sale a few years ago. I’m not sure why, but we’d decided to subject ourselves to the trauma of holding a circus in our front yard. Grandma Vi is a garage sale expert. She came to share the passion and help us survive the ordeal.

During a break from the frenzy, she wandered over to the clothes rack and found that my wife was willing to sell one of my favorite coats.

Imagine that.

Grandma Vi studied the merchandise and decided to make an offer. She’d explained earlier that morning that price tags are meaningless. There’s so much more to this garage sale sport than that.

Grandma Vi inquired, “Are you sure that you’re willing to sell this fine coat for $10?” (The price tag said $20.)

It was a good coat, with no imperfections. I replied,“Well, sure. But you can have it if you have a friend that you’d like to give it to.”

She continued, “Oh no, it’s for me and only me. And $5 or $10 is more than fair.”

I was out of my element. The confusion nearly overwhelmed me. I stuttered, “Uh… but you’re aware that it’s clearly a coat for a man? And it’s free to you?” She smiled. It was one of those smiles.

We see them often near the end of most card games.

Grandma Vi closed the deal. “You see, I never intend to wear the coat, though I’ll give it to somebody who needs it when the opportunity arises. But I’m intrigued by the fugitive $50 bill in the left coat pocket. At this rate, I may be able to afford a cup of that newfangled coffee. How many more coats are you selling?”

Look Beyond Price Tags, Check Pockets

Some lessons sink in more rapidly than others. Just last week I did a load of laundry. My family winces whenever I do because I seem to have great difficulty with color separation and identifying those items designed to elude the clothes dryer.

As a reminder, my wife displays a pair of dress pants much like a trophy of a downed animal. When I was finished with this particular prey, the liner extended below the
pant legs. Replacement shopping opportunities usually follow.

There’s a reason that I’m on the holiday card list at Kohl’s.

It’s also important to check pockets for fugitive pens. You know the rest of the story.

Check the pockets.

Microsoft has some $40 billion in cash. Novartis has $13 billion and Intel has $12 billion. Johnson & Johnson,Cisco Systems and IBM have some $7 billion in their “pockets.”

What do you think they’re going to do with some of it?

Meanwhile, the stock market garage sale is in full swing. Find the companies with price tags less than book value. Discover the companies with disproportionate amounts of book value consisting of pockets of cash.

There’s always a bigger fish. Some of the bigger fish are hungry with cash burning in their pockets. Some of the smaller fish are swimming in the barrel in the garage.

Shop better. Shop Grand. Check the pockets. Thanks, Grandma Vi.

Top 10 Reasons to be Bullish in 2013

Full sarcasm drip: Many of you will recall the “book report” that we shared regarding the outlook of one Michael Belkin at last autumn’s Big Picture Conference.  Belkin was decidedly bearish on the tech sector — and his concerns have become manifest during 4Q2012 (the current earnings season could be a roller coaster) and it should be interesting to see how the sector fares during 1Q2013.  Some have questioned our 6% total return forecast for 2013 (actually -3% to 14%).  We noted that Jeff Gundlach shared a similar outlook, observing that “2012 was a whole lot better than it should have been.”  Continuing to read between the lines and with a sarcastic bent, it appears that Belkin doesn’t have the highest bar for 2013 either …

1) Congress and the Administration have spending, taxes and the budget deficit completely under control. Fiscal imbalances have been solved and won’t be a problem for the economy or markets anymore.

2) S&P500 earnings are declining and everyone knows stocks go up when earnings go down.

3) Hedge funds have their highest stock market exposure since just before the last time the S&P500 tumbled 50%. 10,000 hedge funds controlling $2 trillion can’t be wrong.

4) NYSE margin debt of $327 billion is the highest since Feb 2008. Forthcoming margin calls like those of 2008 are bullish, because leveraged investors will be forced to liquidate into a declining market.

5) Taxes are going up and government spending growth is going down – which Keynesian economists agree stimulates economic growth, corporate earnings  and the stock market.

6) Bernanke has deliberately squeezed investors into equities and the Fed has a perfect contrary record at preventing the last two 50% S&P500 bear markets during 2001-02 and 2007-09. Don’t fight the Fed.

7) Goldman is in bed with the Fed and bullish GS bigwigs say buy cyclicals. Don’t fight the squid.

8) Apple’s gargantuan $160 billion market cap loss (-24%) since September 19th is a generational stimulative event, since AAPL was a top 10 holding of 800 hedge funds and mutual funds at the end of Q3 2012.

9) Even if the market somehow goes down, every other portfolio manager will be down too – so your fund’s investors won’t care and won’t redeem their money.

10) 90% of market strategists and analysts polled by Reuters have a higher end-2013 market forecast. The sell-side consensus is always right and since they anticipate bear markets with pinpoint precision – this is an enormous  green light.

Source: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/top-10-reasons-to-be-bullish-in-2013/

Worthy Properties of Rattlesnakes

This was adapted from a column that appeared in the August 2000 edition of Better Investing.

Benjamin Franklin was responsible for suggesting that the first symbolic emblem of the United States of America be our native rattlesnake. Such images are accompanied by mottoes and rallying cries to express beliefs and promote unity. There is little, if any, truth to the rumor that we considered the motto shared here (see accompanying figure) as our new membership campaign. We are convinced that joining is a great idea, certainly preferable to the expressed alternative, and we know that the conferences in the year ahead will serve as yet another annual reminder of what is possible when we engage long-term investing.

Make no mistake. I don’t like snakes.

It probably stems from my personal encounter with a timber rattlesnake while wandering the woods as a small boy. I was reaching into a pile of wooded debris, collecting fuel for a campfire, when I grabbed a piece of wood that was alive! I managed to escape getting bitten, but our moment of eye contact left a considerable impression.

I can personally attest that rattlesnakes have no eyelids.

Mine weren’t working very well for a while after the encounter, either.

Franklin’s Furtive Forethought

Benjamin Franklin, operating under the anonymity of the signature, An American Guesser, proposed the rattlesnake – instead of the bald eagle – in a letter to the Philadelphia Journal on December 27, 1775.

In the letter, Franklin shared his observation that the rattler was a common emblem used by militia. Intrigued, he explored the “worthy properties of the animal.” The serpent has long been held by the ancient as a symbol of wisdom.

The snake is also held in a certain attitude of endless duration.

Franklin also observed that “the rattlesnake is found in no other quarter of the world besides America, and may therefore, be chosen, on that account, to represent her.”

“The eye of a rattlesnake excels in brightness… and has no eyelids. Therefore, it be esteemed an emblem of vigilance. A rattlesnake never begins an attack, nor when once engaged, ever surrenders… an emblem of magnanimity and true courage. Was I wrong in thinking this is a true picture of the temper and conduct of America?

“It is curious and amazing to observe how distinct and independent of each other the rattles of this animal are, and yet how firmly they are united together, so as to never be separated by breaking them to pieces. One of these rattles singly is incapable of producing sound, but the ringing of a group together is sufficient to alarm the boldest man living. The animal is solitary, associating with her kind when necessary for preservation. In winter, the warmth of a number together preserves lives, while singly, they would probably perish. She is beautiful in youth and her beauty increaseth with age. Her abode is among impenetrable rocks.”

Successful Journeys

The Motley Fool’s Selena Maranjian shared a message in this month’s issue about challenging journeys [Ed. Note — It was about the Donner party.] Going the distance alone is more than lonely – the path can be frightening and regrettably lifethreatening.

Stories abound of once-burned investors who never return. Time-honored road maps, combined with the navigational voice of a committed community, can be a powerful alternative to the guidance of one Lansford B. Hastings, provider of the “hot travel tip” that led the Donner party to their doom.

On the heels of Albuquerque, thoughts shared by Barry Holstun Lopez, in his work, Desert Notes: Reflections in the Eye of the Raven, caught my attention. Lopez wrote of desert journeys and thirst. “You will have to sit down and study the land for a place to dig for water. When you wake in the morning and find a rattlesnake has curled up on your chest to take advantage of your warmth – you will have to move quickly, or wait until the sun’s heat arrives. But, you will always know this: Others have made it. The maps have been reliable… and the community is growing. We can make a good map with only a napkin and a broken pencil. We know how to avoid what is unnecessary.”

Better roadmaps. Better Investors.

Making A Point: Rain or Rainbows?

Do You See Rain or Rainbows?

This column originally appeared in the October 2004 issue of Better Investing. I’ve received a number of letters chastising me for forever altering what people see when they look at the Federal Express logo. I got another scolding email this morning. (Grin)

Do you see it? Do you see the arrow that’s part of the Federal Express logo?

How you answer the question will quite often depend on your age. If you’re 15 years old or younger, the answer most often comes in an instant. “Sure, there it is. Doesn’t everybody see it?”

The vast majority of adults need a little more help. Try focusing less on the purple and orange letters and look at the white space between the “E” and the “x.”

I’ve tried this out on a whole bunch of people for the last couple of months. My findings are nearly unanimous. During a recent trip with a group of young people, I conducted my informal poll. Most of the youngsters took it for granted that all of us can see the arrow. In stark contrast, I have encountered very few adults who reacted the same way. The rare exceptions were usually engaged in some form of artistic expression or vocation. Others had heard or read a story about the arrow within the logo.

Making a Point

A debate usually ensued from there depending on your personal levels of curiosity and skepticism. Is this hidden arrow intentional? Is this a form of subliminal advertising by FedEx?

Mike Pulfer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes:“Little is left to chance in the world of marketing and advertising and, especially, corporate identity. The arrow, in this case, didn’t just happen to be flying through some highly-paid art director’s studio.”

Jess Bunn, FedEx Corp. spokesperson, says: “The arrow was indeed intentional as a secondary design element. If the viewer sees it, it’s a neat, interesting visual bonus. If the viewer doesn’t see it, that’s OK. It’s still a powerful logo. The arrow is intended to communicate movement, speed and the dynamic nature of our company.”

For me, the more interesting aspect of this is why the children and adults who act like children see it differently. Please know that I use the phrase “adults who act like children” with respect and admiration. By its very nature, investing requires a certain level of optimism.

I believe that some of the best investors find a way to harness and maintain a sort of youthful exuberance in their studies of companies and opportunities. Our community of investors focus efforts on discovering leadership companies that display strong growth characteristics.

Continuing to invest in the best companies while prices sag during corrections and bear markets requires a dose of childlike vision and optimism.

What’s different about age 15 and beyond? It all comes down to how humans are “wired.” In 1990 Congress and President Bush declared the 1990s to be the decade of the brain. Much has been learned about the workings of the brain in the last few years. We now know how the brain grows. At birth, a child’s brain contains a hundred billion neurons,a number greater than the number of stars in the Milky Way. During the first 15 years of a child’s life, connections much like highways are built between these neurons. During this stage of growth, eyes are open and the brain is like a sponge.

Through Younger Eyes

Pop music star Gloria Estefan is undoubtedly sharing her experience with her two children, Nayib and Emily, when she sings about how differently our children see the world in the first verse of “Christmas Through Your Eyes”:

Till I had you I didn’t know
That I was missing out
Had to grow up and see the world
Through different shades of doubt
Give me one more chance to dream again
One more chance to feel again
Through your young heart
If for only one day let me try

A subsequent verse makes the biggest distinction between a child’s and an adult’s vision. “I see the rain, you see the rainbow hiding in the clouds.” Many adults that I’ve quizzed on this now tell me that they’re annoyed. It seems that they find it challenging to see anything other than the arrow now.