As Eddy Elfenbein recently pointed out, another 6% move to the upside for the S&P 500 and the index will finally be “flat” for the trailing six years. If stock prices continue to surge and earnings forecasts continue to atrophy, that flat spot could have some downward slope to it.
1. “2012 returns were better than they were supposed to be.” — Jeff Gundlach.
2. Disposable income just took a hit — it’s hard to imagine that it won’t cause some dislocation and economic turbulence.
Updates on a number of community favorites in this week’s Crossing Wall Street:
I coined the term “pounce pile” in this investment club lesson back in 1994 (reprised here) and discussed it in a few articles at Better Investing (e.g. Exploring The Art of Pouncing, August 2000)
Wouldn’t any of us like to go two years without a setback or defeat? Lindsay, our 8-year-old, participates in a girl’s soccer league. She and her friend, Lindsay O., have contributed to two such teams that have yet to lose a game. (They’ve been tied once.) All of the girls on the team have demonstrated considerable improvement and have a lot of fun.
While watching the game last Saturday, I was particularly impressed with the way that they lurked in position, PREPARED for an opportunity. For a “herd” of 8-year-olds, this kind of discipline is pretty rare.
I have a hunch that successful investment habits require the same order of discipline, and the 1994 market has been a real test.
Wayne Gretzky, absolutely one of the greatest sports figures in history offered the following explanations for his unequaled accomplishments. “Anybody can chase the puck and lots of people do. I’d rather go where I THINK the puck is going to end up.”
The investment herd keeps spewing new spins that “this time, it’s different.” It may indeed be a minefield and although it seems like it’s taking forever, we have to get in position and be ready. The challenging moments shall pass.
The art of pouncing involves identifying good companies that our club would like to own if, and only if, the price is right. It’s a solid investment club practice to keep and monitor a pounce pile of desirable investments and wait for the opportunity to own them to materialize.
Soccer is not unlike hockey, and we thoroughly enjoy watching Lindsay’s “herd” of undefeated achievers. Perhaps we can all take notes and learn from these youngsters and their Coach?
Welcome 2013. Again, a new year. It’s also that time of year when we reflect in two directions. It’s hard to look forward without looking backward. Our expectations are products of experience. Our predictive models are actually pretty simple, the sort of tools that would likely have made Ben Graham relatively comfortable. “If the math involves more than algebra … it’s probably not of much utility in the realm of investment analysis.” As we look forward, we celebrate successful models (like Crossing Wall Street.) And multitudes of others who believe in a method with over seven time-honored decades.
“In a pyramid near the middle of the New World” “Work will stop on a calendar in the 12th month of the 21st century.” “Celebrating the Solstice, the architect of days will fiesta.” “Agave juice turns fiestas into siestas and future generations will roil.”
OK, Nostradamus didn’t write that. But he could have. In fact, it could be among some long-lost and yet-to-be-discovered piles of parchment, filed under “Da Vinci Code and Related Stories.”
It’s a new year. The Mayans were wrong. Or we misunderstood them. Or they may have been “early?”
Pressing On
And it’s time for throngs of fearless forecasters to step up and deliver their prognostications for 2013 and beyond. Don’t miss “The 12 Best Stocks to Own for 2013,” and “10 Scorching Funds Who Will Stay Blazing During 2013.” Uh huh. At the same time, we’re reminded that it makes sense to blend a little nostalgia and history as we try to come to grips with the best resources to yield some of our attention.
Some crystal balls are better than others and some practitioners are clearly more likely to be descendants of Nostradamus. As many of you know, we’ve recently celebrated the achievements of one Eddy Elfenbein. Why? Because he stands out. And he stands alone. How so? Not a single stock fund has beaten the S&P 500 index for the last six years. None. Nada. Zilch. But Eddy has.
Stroll down the list. Eddy obviously shops in the same aisle that we do. With annual turnover of five stocks (25%), he also shops with the same levels of frequency.
Value Line: Overall Market Perspective
For an outlook that is a little bigger picture, but still harbors Nostradamusesque qualities, we turn to one of our favorite indicators, the Value Line low total return forecast courtesy of the Value Line Investment Survey. It’s something that I’ve tracked for a few years — but decided to take a closer look.
Looking back, this low total return forecast indicator has been correct (within range) for four of the last six years. The average forecast during that period has been 12.7% and the actual annual market return has been 10.5%. For 2012, the forecast was 10.4% and the actual result came in at 17.4% for the Value Line Arithmetic Average (^VAY) of 1700 equally-weighted stocks. Here’s a closer look at how the 2012 forecast was formed. It’s basically a compilation of the 4-year, 3-year, 2-year and 1-year forecasts based on the annual ending values. The projections are built by taking the low total return forecast at the time (12/31/2011, 12/31/2010, 12/31/2009 and 12/31/2008) and building an aggregate forecast from all four points in time. Here are the components of the 2012 forecast:
The forecast value for ^VAY was 2975.12. The actual year-end close was 3164.70, achieving slightly better results than forecast, but in range. What range? Based on the four forecasts, the low forecast ranged from 0.7% to a high of 24.2%.
The width of the range varies from year to year, but we think it’s important to underscore what is possible (and reasonably expected) — a message that we regularly send with our stack of boxes in the accompanying graphic. And in this case, the 2012 box was expected to “land” where it did.
Here’s a look at the trailing 10-year Value Line low total return-based forecasts. The challenges following 2000-2002 were pretty clear and pretty disruptive. I suspect that as we go back a few more years, we’ll see more green ink and less red. But the results for the last several years are compelling … and they get even more compelling (at least to me) when we zoom in on 2009. Yes, that’s not a typo. Those 60% returns (forecast and actual) are pretty intriguing. The S&P 500 results are included merely for a frame of reference. But two things:
1. The forecasts actually come closer to the S&P 500 actuals. Hmmm.
2. We find it intriguing that the average error for all of the 4-year forecasts is actually LOWER than the 1-year forecasts. The intuitively more challenging long-term forecasts were more accurate than the short time horizon — at least for this set of results. Double-hmmm (and more on that in the future).
As we noted at the time during late 2008 and 2009, this wasn’t a “back up the truck” moment … this was a “how many trucks have you got?” moment. Hugh McManus and I were recently discussing these results and the sticking out like an opposable sore thumb moment that was 2009. Were we assertive enough? We counseled high-quality going into the Great Recession and that served us well. Did we nudge enough in the realm of special situations? I don’t know. But I do think it’s worth a look back at 2008: A Dark Night for any newcomers to Manifest Investing … and revisiting that moment in time is probably a good idea for all of us.
… And The 2013 Cat Is Out Of The Bag
Using this approach, the 2013 forecast is for a total return of 6.3% when 12/31/2013 arrives.
The forecasts range from a low of -4% to a high of 13%. What impact does this have on our expectations and/or behavior?
First of all, not much. Continue seeking high-quality companies and be selective — make sure that the return forecast justifies your interest. If anything, ratchet up your minimums for quality and financial strength when screening. With MIPAR at 7-8%, we’re hovering near levels of “fair market value.” Any surges to the upside in price or avalanche of earnings disappointments could lead to a significant correction in the stock market. If you’re preserving capital and deploying a balanced strategy — heed the cash equivalent suggestions from Value Line’s asset allocation and monitor our Balanced demonstration portfolio (it’s currently at 40% “cash.”)
Walking Main Street
We’ll be playing along with Eddy and Crossing Wall Street for 2013 with our own crop of favorites from the MANIFEST 40 and our own Christmas Countdown. For more on this, see Walking Main Street
Move over Mayans. We’ll be back next month with Punxsy Phil, our peerless prognosticator.
From the January 2003 issue of Better Investing … a reminder to focus on what really matters following yet another particularly challenging period in the stock market.
Enough is enough. Are we ready to throw in the towel? Is it now time to sell all our stocks and abandon our investment club?
No. It’s not. Nobody said this was going to be easy all the time.
In fact,we know that just the opposite is true. Sometimes the largest rewards are realized by those who find a way to ignore the dreary consensus and invest regularly in companies that will survive the stock market storm.
Up and Down and Working
As the market trudges along during 2002,we seem headed for a third consecutive year of lower stock prices.
As this issue goes to press in early November, the Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) is down another 15 percent year-to-date. It may be hard to believe, but we’ve been tested before. In many ways the tribulations of 1973-1982 were far worse.
Sneak a peek at the accompanying chart. The graphic shows that the DJIA seemingly made no gains for a period of nearly 10 years. Many of the painful prognosticators on television and in the print media are fond of pointing out that stock prices went virtually no where between early 1973 and mid 1982.
At first glance it’s hard to argue with the facts. The DJIA increased from 118.40 to 144.30 some 10 years later — an annualized appreciation rate of 2 percent.
But that’s an urban myth.
Someone who invested $20 per month into the DJIA over those 10 years would have contributed a total of $2,400. The value of this $2,400 stake actually reaches $3,400 at the end of 1982. The reality is that during this terrible test of investor resolve, a committed and disciplined effort to invest $20 a month (in the DJIA) netted an annualized rate of return of 11.5 percent.
Ugly Charts, Ugly Ducklings?
The story doesn’t fluctuate.
Stock prices do. Looking at the ugly chart shown above, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back at what our NAIC editors said during times like 1975, 1978 and 1982. These had to be times when it seemed like the stock market would never continue its upward advance. It had to be particularly depressing as the DJIA approached and retreated from 1000 three separate times over that 10-year period.
As the 1980s began, our editorial reflected on the challenge of the 1970s.
“With the 1970 and 1974 credit crunches, the oil embargo, the high rate of inflation, escalating fuel prices and international instability, it’s hard to picture a worse time for investing. The poor investor who hasn’t had guidance in this period has been lost at sea.”
“NAIC’s suggestions are basically simple. We believe that investing in stocks is a way to take advantage of the growth that businesses continually strive for.”
“By carefully selecting good companies and paying no more than reasonable prices for them, investors can enjoy their progress.”
At the time, a scholar had written a book and placed NAIC stock analysis tools in a featured place in his text.
In his opinion, our tools were the “Standard of Excellence” of all the stock analysis material he had seen.
Long-time NAIC investors who own good quality stocks over their lifetimes have excellent results.
No one knows how long a market decline will last. When the fall continues over a long period,it becomes very difficult to continue investing.
But profits come quickly once the turnaround begins, and they begin to multiply. Note the right-hand side of the chart.
Put down that towel, throw another $20 into the club kitty and hug an ugly duckling.
Did you know that the fourth highest day of chocolate consumption is January 4th? Yes, trailing only Easter, the Christmas season and Valentine’s Day, that fourth day of every new year marks the collapse of our dreaded new year’s resolutions. You know the routine, “I’m gonna lose some weight, eat less chocolate, stop smoking and drinking and commit some time to getting my investment efforts in focus.”
Be It Resolved…
But four days? I’ll plead guilty to participating in this annual slaughter of good intentions. “No really, I’ll spend more time every day at the health club, just as soon as I can remember how to get there, Dear.”
A funny thing happened on the way to this year’s moment of fleeting resolution. I finally made one that I can feel pretty good about breaking. I pledged that this year I’d refrain from making resolutions. True to form, I began breaking this non-resolution immediately. I haven’t had a cup of coffee yet this year and I’ll confess that this “simply happened.” We’ve closed all of our fugitive investment accounts, consolidating them in a place that we can monitor and maintain using the philosophies and methods you’ll find at Manifest Investing. We’ll be continuing and redoubling our efforts to help groups of employees understand and optimize their defined contribution plans.
If you’re fairly new to investing or new to the concepts presented at Manifest Investing / Expecting Alpha, I want to take a moment and extend an extra special welcome to you. Becoming a committed, patient and strategic long-term investor is probably the most exciting thing that you can do about your future and the well-being of those you care about the most.
Natural Fear
“But I don’t understand all of this investing stuff?” I save my greatest fears for the things I understand the least. I suspect that you have some of the same feelings about uncertainty. If you’re feeling a bit overwhelmed, I want to share something one of my colleagues taught me a long time ago.
She’d been participating in a series of online discussions about stock analysis and long-term investing. She admitted that the avalanche of buzzwords and jargon was making it difficult for her to keep up. But she also shared that she simply kept a file of notes and index cards. Whenever somebody talked about something she didn’t understand, she’d file it. Then she’d periodically revisit the folder to see if there were any cards she could throw away. As time passed, she emptied the folder and discovered a peaceful confidence with her investment decisions.
The rest of the story? This lady ultimately went on to write a column on investing for a magazine!
This approach, or something similar, might work for you. But don’t make any resolutions about it!
An Antidote to the Fear
My experience with my first stock purchase is etched in stone in my memory. With CNBC blaring, I’d taken the afternoon off from work to use my Schwab account for the first time. I’d read some magazine articles and was convinced that Waste Management was destined for greatness. I set some steaks out for the celebration of our arrival as individual investors when my spouse got home from work. With sweaty palms and chronic “stage fright” I finally held on to the receiver long enough to give my purchase instructions to the broker. I hung up and lost consciousness. I recovered to watch the last fifteen minutes of ticker tape for the day. WMX 35… WMX 34 1/8… WMX 34…WMX 32 3/4… WMX 31 1/2. I lost consciousness again. My carefully considered investment had lost ten percent of its value in 15 minutes on this suddenly gloomy Friday afternoon. My wife came home, put the steaks in the freezer, and got out some hot dogs for dinner.
The fear is natural. But there are some answers. Conquering the fear and maintaining the patience and commitment to virtually anything is usually easier when you do it with friends.
Manifest Investing is approaching its 8th birthday. We support the promise and potential of investment clubs for people who want to embark on a life long journey of successful investing. Investment clubs are educational vehicles. Our community of long-term investors is unequaled and a considerable resource for people trying to remove the mystery and become successful long-term investors. If you’re not a member of this community, you should be.
Five Things Investors Need to Understand
Your objective as a serious long-term investor is actually pretty simple. You want to do well. Your version of “how well” is up to you and you’ll learn about the importance of sleeping at night as you continue your investing journey. I believe that reasonable expectations are important. I do not expect to achieve 40% returns year after year. I do expect the returns from my investments to range from one-year drops of 20-30% to single year gains of as much as 50%.
But over the long term, I expect my returns to slightly better (3-5%) than the general stock market. The accompanying figure shows the returns for any given year since 1941. We see that most years, the annual result ends up between 0-30%. In fact, the average annual return for stocks has been approximately 10%. Do you see the “bell curve?”
Annual Returns for the Modern Stock Market. The modern stock market is the period following the reforms of 1932-33 and 1940. Take a look at the returns for the years starting with 1941, a uniquely bad year and 1945, a uniquely good year. Think about world conditions at the time. Note the ebb and flow as the decades roll by. Notice how unprecedented the late 1990s were, as consecutive years all landed to the right. The frustration of 2000-2002 gave way to better times in 2003 and 2004. Sources: Manifest Investing LLC, Ibbotson Associates.
The annualized total return for our Tin Cup demonstration portfolio since 1995 stands at 18.7% during a period when the stock market has advanced 6.4% per year. I believe that aiming for returns that are 3-5 percentage points higher than the general stock market has a decent chance of achieving that goal. Not every year will be a bed of roses but we spend a lot more energy focusing on the results on the right than the left — all the while remaining focused on the windshield and NOT the rear view mirror when it comes to designing and managing our portfolios.
The first thing we need to understand (and have) is an objective, a target total return. Most people understand annual returns. If you’re offered a certificate of deposit with a 4% return or one with an 8% return with identical terms, most of us would choose the higher return.
Scores of investment clubs achieve long-term annualized returns that exceed market benchmarks. We’ll share details and lessons learned from successful portfolios and mutual funds in future articles. The point is, it is possible to achieve market-leading returns over the long run.
Taking aim at that long-term result requires that we understand expectations for the individual investments that comprise our portfolios. We need to build portfolios with enough return expectations to achieve the objective. Much like caring for a garden, this is a never-ending vigil. We also need to understand the differences between weeds and desired plants. This is the role understanding investment grade, or quality, plays in our efforts.
Using the methods discussed here, the expected returns and quality are built from three characteristics: projected sales growth, profitability and value. Think G-P-V.
Despite all of the buzzwords, it really boils down to common sense. Our son and daughter and our nieces and nephews used to build a lemonade stand while visiting my parent’s house. Mom and Dad lived on a golf course and the stand sat in the middle of some shady evergreen trees. Golfers do get thirsty. It was a good business model. Needless to say, the enterprise was pretty profitable. What was the business worth?
That depends. How much did the lemonade mix cost? What did these young entrepreneurs charge and how much was left after reimbursing my mother? Would it have made sense to launch another location? An income statement is no more complicated than that. How much more will the golfers drink? What profits will be left after paying all the bills?
Common stock investors own a piece of the business, a stake in the profits. A stock price is nothing more than the most recent result of a price negotiation. It doesn’t always resemble what the business is worth. That’s where the value (or valuation) comes in. We’ll take a closer look at valuation next month and attempt to demystify this challenging concept a bit. For now, think Growth-Profitability-Valuation and that this leads to an understanding of quality and expected returns. This is the core of our MANIFEST method. “Less fear.”
One of our favorite graphics to explain the vagaries of annual stock market returns to beginners (and to remind all of the rest of us) is shown here:
We start with 1941. We believe that anything before that reflects something different. The SEC was founded in 1933 in response to the Roaring Twenties and Stock Market Crash of 1929. The Investment Company Act followed in 1941 — so we think the modern stock market was established at that point in time.
The graphic displays the results of individual years ranging from the “special” (unique and virtually unprecedented) performance we experienced in 2008 with its -37% total return … up to the returns witnessed in 1954 and 1958.
It’s helpful to remind and be reminded that the results of any given year can pretty much plop anywhere from -20% to +40%, in general. But much like a bell curve, the most common results are concentrated between 0% and 30%.
It’s the kind of walk you take after rolling out of bed, rejuvenated while practicing prudent and effective sleep-at-night investing. This morning Eddy Elfenbein rolled out for the sixth consecutive New Year’s Day after watching his 20 Buy List stocks outperform the S&P 500 over the trailing year. Six years in a row. How many funds have outperformed the S&P 500 every single year over that time frame?
Nada.
There’s a single fund that is 5-for-5 (didn’t exist six years ago). The fund (PSLDX) is a hybrid that appears to invest in stock futures and a blend of bonds. So it’s not even a direct comparison.
Eddy’s 2013 Buy List, as always — is a low turnover (no changes permitted during the calendar year) — collection of 20 stocks. They’re predominantly core stocks with a few special situations. Our tracking dashboard for Eddy’s 2013 Buy List is available here:
We sleep pretty well too. And we’ll have some fun with the (20) best-positioned stocks from your 40 most widely-held stocks as shown in the accompanying listing.
It’s not a zero sum contest. We actually hope that Eddy will roll out successfully for a seventh straight year and that our favorites will join him.
For kicks, we’ll also add a group of honorable mention entries to our Christmas Countdown collection bringing the total to (20) and compare all of these participants side-by-side as 2013 progresses.
First we had the Rapture a few months ago. And now, December 21, 2012 has come and gone.
As the last few hours of 2012 wane, we’re still here. We’re either heathens (avoiding the Rapture) or the Mayan Mother Ship got lost on the way back to pick us up.
But we’re still here. At least you and me, dear reader.
Perhaps our elected representatives have been counting on one or the other — while indulging in that multi-decade game of “kick the can” (down the road). Take it from one champion can kicker from the early 1970s … they’re not very good at it. Not really.
We got lots of questions about the fiscal cliff during the December 2012 Round Table session held this past Saturday morning. So it’s on the minds of many of you. Hugh McManus compared to something to do with flinging tomatoes to see if they’ll land (???) or something like that. One of my favorite depictions comes from Eddy Elfenbein who calls it a fiscal slope, not a cliff. And there’s not really a hard deadline — at least not in the context that’s being delivered to us.
I think of it as (1) a dramatic display of incompetence and (2) an epic bipartisan abrogation of responsibility.
In the Big Picture scheme of things, it’s material and a better plan needs to pursued and we need to unleash American energy in time-honored ways or we’ll face serious challenges ahead. But, it’s not the end of the world and neither are the forty two other things you’re being told to worry about these days.
During the Round Table, we celebrated something pretty cool. The overall relative return for our stock-selecting knights and collaborators has been mired since inception. It has generally ranged from -2 to -4 percentage points and languished over time. (Drum roll) We’ll close 2012 with a COLLECTIVE relative return (since inception) of +1.8%.
During the session, we added Coca-Cola (KO), Mesa Labs (MLAB) and Staples (SPLS) to the tracking portfolio.
Adding one of the world’s strongest and established brands, one of the best companies from October’s Forbes Best Small Companies and accumulating Hugh’s favorite deep value play all seem like appropriate things to ponder during these “final days.” Steady. Promising. Beaten down but with potential. Hugh’s perspective is uncommonly long-term. He sees stabilizing growth, a steadying and modest growth of the Staples store portfolio … restoration of profitability and a potential that a P/E expansion (currently 8x) could accompany a resounding recovery. The low total return forecast is approximately 30% if these dominoes fall into place and Hugh openly admits that he doesn’t know when … or IF … this will happen — only that there’s a finite probability that it could.
Ken Kavula lamented the 24/7 news cycle during our discussion of how faith in investing has leaped from a bunch of people who need it most. And we’ve all been around long enough to know that opportunities are created (close your eyes and think back to March 2009) when it’s darkest before dawn. PIMCO’s Bill Gross recently clarified that he didn’t mean that “stocks were dead,” but that “the cult of equities was dying …” and with that some of the excesses and exuberances just might be obliterated, at least for a while.
Those who leap with a little faith and prudent analysis just might discover and live an interesting journey.
And unless you’re in the shadow of the Mayan mother ship, there’s another dawn ahead and no better time to plan, prepare and select some opportunities to live through in years and decades ahead.
From the time-honored vault: Originally published on 12/14/2010, this entry into that year’s Christmas Countdown carried a powerful reminder about the sometimes silent power of long-term investing.
The second company in our 12-day Christmas Countdown is Abbott Labs (ABT). Abbott Labs has been featured prominently at Manifest Investing in our Sweet 16 screening results for the December newsletter and ABT has been selected twice for the MANIFEST Round Table (more on this to follow) and we regard the company as a core, or bolstering, holding with consistent steady results over the years … Speaking of “over the years,” I don’t know about you, but I get a little reflective and nostalgic as December marches on and the new year approaches. In this case, our selection of Abbott Labs gives us an opportunity to revisit a story shared by Sharon Serres back in March with the MANIFEST community. It’s the story of Grace Groner — one of those legendary literary little old ladies. Grace worked for Abbott Labs and had done so for decades, holding a few shares that she’d purchased decades ago. I don’t know what other stocks may have resided in her portfolio, but when Grace passed away earlier this year, she left behind an awesome gift for her alma mater, Lake Forest College.
It’s seems fitting to me to celebrate a little grace (in this case, a LOT of grace) during the holiday season.
Abbott Labs (ABT)
No stranger to investors in our community, Abbott Labs (ABT) is a global, broad-based health care company devoted to discovering new medicines, new technologies and new ways to manage health. Products span the continuum of care, from nutritional products and laboratory diagnostics through medical devices and pharmaceutical therapies. The comprehensive line of products encircles life itself – addressing important health needs from infancy to the golden years. ABT is recognized as a global enterprise with the ability to serve customers around the world.
Throughout its 120+ year history, Abbott people have been driven by a constant goal: to advance medical science to help people live healthier lives. It’s part of their heritage. Today, approximately 90,000 employees around the world share the passion for “Turning Science Into Caring.” It’s a commitment to focusing on what matters most: life and the potential it holds when we are feeling our best.
Stock Study and Equity Analysis Guide
Q: Why do we do stock studies?
A: To build a vision of what a company (stock) might be worth in the future.
That vision includes two core components: a five-year earnings forecast … and an estimate of the average value (projected P/E ratio) that we believe investors will be willing to pay — based on our assumptions, judgments and careful considerations.
Any stock study is basically a fill-in-the-blanks quiz. If (company name) can grow sales at ____%, achieve a profitability of ___% for net margin, and if a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio (P/E, essentially the foundation of the value of any company) would be _____x … then the projected annual return (PAR) could reasonably be: _______%.
In the case of ABT, our answers are (1) 9% … (2) 18% … and (3) 15x … for a result of 17-18% projected returns.
As I mentioned before, we’ve featured Abbott Labs frequently over the last several months. Recently, I covered it as I discussed some screening results and shared the study results behind the answers selected for the quiz above. You can view a video (including powerpoint discussion with audio) here:
Go ahead. Try and convince me that “All-of-the-Above” investing isn’t a good idea.
During the 20-year period shown, investing in a blend of faster-growing (smaller), medium-sized and slower-growing (larger blue-chip stalwarts) typical of the Value Line 1700 (equally-weighted arithmetic index) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +4.8 percentage points over 20 years (1992-Present).
It’s a mission-critical part — and crucial contributor — to what we do.
n recently pointed out, another 6% move to the upside for the S&P 500 and the index will finally be “flat” for the trailing six years. If stock prices continue to surge and earnings forecasts continue to atrophy, that flat spot could have some downward slope to it.
Expecting Alpha 