Groundhog Challenge XI (2017)

At Manifest Investing, we’ve held a stock selection challenge for the last ten years. Participants are encouraged to choose 5-20 stocks for a static portfolio, much in the spirit of Crossing Wall Street’s Eddy Elfenbein.  Where you might expect some “gun slinging” and swinging for the fences, the combatants are actually well-behaved and carefully deploy a long term perspective with a dash of speculation and adventure.  The overall performance has often topped market averages and lessons have been extracted.  If you would like to participate with this year’s field, send stock picks to or join the league at

Groundhog Challenge XI (2017)

We hold certain truths to be self-evident.

That most of us like to sleep at night.

That most of us believe in Occam’s Razor.

That “patience is genius in disguise.” — Hugh McManus

Most of us marvel at the performance of a relatively-passive model portfolio like our Bare Naked Million

We also pay homage to a few selected Rhinos. (Past winners have included Eddy Elfenbein, Abby Jo Cohen (Goldman Sachs), David Einhorn and Warren Buffett.) Some are included just for fun … it’s like playing against the “house.” #BeatJimCramer

Therefore, we’ll keep it simple (again) for Groundhog XI (2017) but with a slight experimental twist and invitation.

1. Enter by selecting a minimum of five (5) investments and a maximum of twenty (20) positions.

2. Participants will receive $1,000,000 in Groundhog dollars. The cool million will be divided evenly across the number of positions you decide to use. In other words, if you pick (5) stocks … we’ll divide the $1,000,000 evenly, creating a public dashboard with $200,000 each. If you submit (8) stocks, it’s $125,000 each.

3. Participants may submit entries as individuals and/or group (clubs).

4. No transactions will be permitted between February 2, 2017 and February 2, 2018 — for the MI/Forum-based version of the Groundhog Challenge. (See actively managed virtual portfolio alternative below.)

5. Entries can be made all weekend and will be accepted until the market opens on Tuesday, February 7 at 9:30 AM ET.

Entries can be submitted by emailing or by posting here in the Groundhog Challenge forum folder.

6. Stocks under $1 not permitted.

This is a total return contest — the influence of dividends is accounted for.

New For 2017

We have been invited by to host a stock contest using their virtual portfolio. Groundhoggers may make their “static” entry in the traditional field kept by Manifest Investing and also enter and maintain a challenger at Wall Street Survivor. I plan to have an entry on both platforms,


What: Create an account. Locate the Groundhog Challenge “league”. You will receive $1,000,000 on Groundhog Day (Thursday, Feb 2) and can make your own transactions all year long.

Why: It’s an opportunity to test “passive” vs. “active” for some. For others, experiment with options, short selling and other “non-core” tactics.

Who: The few. The proud. The brave. Bring your best ideas — club and individuals.

There will be transaction costs for the Survivor league. More activity would be more expensive.

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