As many of you know, the average low total return forecast made available by Value Line ranks among our favorite market barometers. We continuously compile and calculate this average based on the standard edition of the Value Line Investment Survey. Therefore, the results on display here (forecast vs. actual) get pretty compelling.
Another 91 days … another result to report. For the quarter ended 3/31/2013, we compare the 4-year low total return forecast from 3/31/2009 (20.0%) versus the 4-year actual annualized return for the Value Line Arithmetic Index (28.6%).
It’s the shape that matters — and the forecasts four years ago were of the “back up the truck” variety.
Anybody who was able to turn and run in the opposite direction of the herds running for the hills back in March 2009 is distinguishable by the footprints on their forehead and the smile on their face.