This Time It’s Different

$vle new normal 20130131

Mohamed El-Erian is credited with coining the phrase and concept of a New Normal following the Great Recession of 2008-2009. In a nutshell, it’s the current form of “This Time It’s Different” and — at least for now — he’s right.

Here’s a look at the Value Line Arithmetic Average with a couple of recessions superimposed. The blue line is the long-term (5-year) trailing average. Looking at the slope of this trend line, we see three different periods (between recessions) with fairly conspicuous shifts in slope (basically rate of price appreciation.)

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