Duct Tape & Mission Salvation

As they polish up those Oscar statues and we get ready to do the same for our Knights of the Round Table, we think about priceless tools, better days and red carpets …

We watched Apollo 13 (AGAIN) this weekend. Do Tom Hanks or Ron Howard movies ever get old? The movie is packed with drama and splashed down on the Hollywood red carpet with a wonderfully deserved nine Oscars, including Best Picture.

Maybe it’s my engineering heritage, but my favorite sequence comes with about three days left in their return voyage when Mission Control discovers that the cabin is becoming progressively poisonous as carbon dioxide levels are climbing in the lunar module. In a real life MacGyver moment, a team of engineers in Houston scramble and put together an air scrubber using a pile of junk including packing materials and a variety of … well, garbage. But the star of the moment is duct tape. “Aquarius, you need about three feet, Jim.” “Just tear off a strip about as long as your arm.”

As Kevin Bacon fights to avoid passing out, the duct tape kicks in and the air purification is underway.

Sometimes our portfolios need a little duct tape. As roman candles flame out and cruise missiles reach their destination, there are times when plain old ordinary (in some cases, non-growth) companies can be provide a significant booster stage for our portfolios. Our Tin Cup model portfolio owes a great deal to Wolverine Worldwide and AutoZone back in 2000-2002 while the booster rocket debris was landing all around us.

“Houston, we don’t have a problem so long as we have enough duct tape.”

MSC Industrial (MSM)

During this week’s Value Line update, we mentioned that MSC Industrial (MSM) seemed to exhibit strengthening fundamentals. The company shows up near the top of a screen based on the low total return forecast and actually scores pretty well when factoring technical elements, too.

Time for a closer look. Tighten your tool belts and let’s go!

Company Description

Make sure you start with a pretty big tool belt.

Since 1941, MSC has set the industry standard for quality, selection and customer service. More than half century later, the company’s dedication to these standards has made us one of the nation’s leading distributors of metalworking & maintenance/repair/operation (MRO) industrial supplies, with over 500,000 products.

As Ken Kavula often encourages, check out the presentation under investor relations for a quick overview and discussion of where the company has been … and where they appear to be going.

Business Model Analysis

Expectations for top line growth seem reasonable in the 9-10% range.

The historical profile shows recessionary impact pretty dramatically for 2008-2009.

Profitability Analysis

Return Forecast

Using a growth forecast of 9%, a net margin forecast of 10.7% (based on history and analyst consensus estimates) and a consensus-based projected average P/E of 18.0x, the projected annual return (PAR) is approximately 12%.

Of Grandmothers & Garage Sales

[From February 2003, Better Investing] One of my favorite goldies — this one hits really, really close to home… about pockets of priceless opportunities …

As our extended family gathered over Thanksgiving to be with Grandma Vi, memories were rekindled. My wife’s grandmother is the matriarch of that side of our family. Her wisdom and serenity provide an exemplary ambition for all of us. Grandparents play a special role in our lives and the moments that our children have spent in Grand company are, as the commercial says, “Priceless.”

Grandma Vi lives for a good game of cards. Of course, she defines a good game of rummy as one that she wins.

My memories are many. But at the same time, they’re too few. I can always use more of those essential reminders that better shape days ahead. Tom Brokaw writes of Greater Generations,and Grandma Vi is among those he writes about.

We picked her up at the airport one wintry afternoon a few years ago.

Instead of relaying her to other relatives for the remainder of her voyage, we decided to keep her at our house overnight. It was a selfish moment. We plead guilty with no remorse.

As the card games continued well into the night, she shared stories of working as “Rosie Riveter” on an assembly line during World War II. Somehow, raising four children under those conditions places raising two today in different light. My wife and I learned things we never knew about toughness and coincident gentleness.

I shall never forget the look on her face as we described, and she noticed for the first time, how much we pay for a cup of Starbucks coffee.

A crowning moment came at a garage sale a few years ago. I’m not sure why, but we’d decided to subject ourselves to the trauma of holding a circus in our front yard. Grandma Vi is a garage sale expert. She came to share the passion and help us survive the ordeal.

During a break from the frenzy, she wandered over to the clothes rack and found that my wife was willing to sell one of my favorite coats.

Imagine that.

Grandma Vi studied the merchandise and decided to make an offer. She’d explained earlier that morning that price tags are meaningless. There’s so much more to this garage sale sport than that.

Grandma Vi inquired, “Are you sure that you’re willing to sell this fine coat for $10?” (The price tag said $20.)

It was a good coat, with no imperfections. I replied,“Well, sure. But you can have it if you have a friend that you’d like to give it to.”

She continued, “Oh no, it’s for me and only me. And $5 or $10 is more than fair.”

I was out of my element. The confusion nearly overwhelmed me. I stuttered, “Uh… but you’re aware that it’s clearly a coat for a man? And it’s free to you?” She smiled. It was one of those smiles.

We see them often near the end of most card games.

Grandma Vi closed the deal. “You see, I never intend to wear the coat, though I’ll give it to somebody who needs it when the opportunity arises. But I’m intrigued by the fugitive $50 bill in the left coat pocket. At this rate, I may be able to afford a cup of that newfangled coffee. How many more coats are you selling?”

Look Beyond Price Tags, Check Pockets

Some lessons sink in more rapidly than others. Just last week I did a load of laundry. My family winces whenever I do because I seem to have great difficulty with color separation and identifying those items designed to elude the clothes dryer.

As a reminder, my wife displays a pair of dress pants much like a trophy of a downed animal. When I was finished with this particular prey, the liner extended below the
pant legs. Replacement shopping opportunities usually follow.

There’s a reason that I’m on the holiday card list at Kohl’s.

It’s also important to check pockets for fugitive pens. You know the rest of the story.

Check the pockets.

Microsoft has some $40 billion in cash. Novartis has $13 billion and Intel has $12 billion. Johnson & Johnson,Cisco Systems and IBM have some $7 billion in their “pockets.”

What do you think they’re going to do with some of it?

Meanwhile, the stock market garage sale is in full swing. Find the companies with price tags less than book value. Discover the companies with disproportionate amounts of book value consisting of pockets of cash.

There’s always a bigger fish. Some of the bigger fish are hungry with cash burning in their pockets. Some of the smaller fish are swimming in the barrel in the garage.

Shop better. Shop Grand. Check the pockets. Thanks, Grandma Vi.

MarketWatch: The Market in January 2017?

Mark Hulbert and I have compared notes on the Value Line Median Appreciation Projection (VLMAP) over the years. Yesterday we spent some time collaborating on our relatively new emphasis on the Value Line Low Total Return (VLLTR) forecast as another guiding resource for long-term investors.

Hulbert’s article for WSJ MarketWatch: Where Will Stock Market Be in January 2017?

Some thoughts after co-pondering this subject with Mark Hulbert for a few moments yesterday:

1. We know better than to believe in crystal balls. That said, I think successful investors need to remind themselves often about patience and discipline. And in this case — one of our greater gifts is the discipline (and I’d argue, freedom) delivered by an emphasis on returns, return forecasts and the oasis from chaos that shelters us from the noise of obsessing over prices and short-term noise.

2. Mark and I continue to find it intriguing and certainly counter-intuitive that forecast error for 4-year time horizons is apparently lower than 1-year versions (individual stocks and markets.) Quarterly forecast error is even higher. Dreman was right about that. But our emphasis on long-term trends and longer time horizons is actually another counter-intuitive oasis. We think we understand why people like Jeremy Grantham and GMO are comfortable with 7-year forecast horizons. Grantham merely smiles when “average investors” wail about GMO’s track record and philosophy of 7-year forecast time horizons.

3. As we said when comparing the actual vs. forecast for VLLTR, it’s the shape that matters. (In fact, Hulbert urged us to be more comfortable with the implications of that 2003-2007 “flat spot” … noting that a vulnerable stock market was finally whacked.) Investors who sought refuge in high-quality stocks (we did) or who ratcheted up cash equivalent allocations would have been served well during and after the Great Recession.

4. And of course, the flip side is that our back-up-the-truck moment in early to mid-2009 is vindicated as these quarters go into the long term track record “can” as noted in the article and previous post.

5. At MANIFEST, we like VLLTR better than VLMAP. VLLTR includes dividends (is not just annualized price appreciation). Yes, the shape is what matters … and VLMAP provides guidance on a relative basis. But actual results more closely resemble historical VLLTR and we the prefer the absolute over the relative wherever we can pursue it.

Challenge Club (January 2013 Meeting)

January Meeting Highlights

The 2012 Annual Report was presented. Relative return for 2012 was +1.4%.

Unit value at the time of the meeting is $24.21 — 6.9% since inception vs. 3.3% for Wilshire 5000.

Blog link (for sharing): https://expectingalpha.com/2013/01/17/challenge-club-january-2013/

Motions, Decisions

1. A motion to buy 100 shares of Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) failed to pass.

2. The motion to accumulate 100 additional shares of AFLAC (AFL) passed (82%).

3. The motion to accumulate 125 shares of FactSet Research (FDS) passed (94%).

4. A motion to accumulate 100 shares of Coach (COH) failed to pass. (~50%)

The dashboard at meeting end (but before January contributions):

Challenge dash 20130118

 

March of Some Favorite Mentors

A favorite from March 2012, celebrating the usefulness of Value Line and honoring a couple of legends — Chuck Allmon and Walter Schloss.

My responsibilities at Better Investing included the opportunity and privilege to correspond and spend time with some of the most exceptional investors in stock market history. From Peter Lynch to John Bogle and the likes of John Neff, the moments were treasured and the mission was a continuous focus/emphasis on deriving lessons that could be applied to our long-term perspective. The objective is simple. Discover wisdom and lean on experience in an effort to maximize the relative returns of everybody all around us.

Current day favorites include many of you, Jeremy Grantham, Brad Perry and until a few days ago … one of the denizens of Graham-and-Doddsville, Walter Schloss. More on Mr. Schloss in a minute. Another long-time is a favorite for many of you, Charles Allmon of Growth Stock Outlook legend and one of the best stock pickers that any of us could (or will) ever meet. We dubbed Chuck Allmon one of our favorite dancing bears — because the financial media often referred to him as a “permabear.”

We ran across this excerpt (a post on our Forum by Dan Hess) from November 2008 that honored Mr. Allmon’s lifetime achievements but also shared (12) stocks with the market clearly clenched in the teeth of a formidable — and very real bear — at the time. In Dan’s words at the time:

Many will recall Charles Allmon as a contributor to Better Investing for many years and also being a newsletter watched closely by the astute investor Joe Smith. After [a mere] 44 years of issuing the newsletter he will give this up in December. But being only 87 he is not retiring but taking on a new career in a venture capital start up. 🙂

You can read the Forbes Article at How to Pick a Growth Stock.

The article shows 12 stocks Allmon is highlighting in his most recent GSO newsletter. I note that Stryker (SYK) and FactSet (FDS) recently discussed here are on his list as well as a half dozen of stocks with green PARS.

Although Allmon has been a bear for many years it is interesting to see he expects P/E Ratios to fall further back toward the levels in the early 1970’s bear market.

It is sad to see Charles Allmon give up his newsletter but at 87 he plans to continue to his managed funds and start a new career but first he is going to take a well earned vacation at his Hawaii home.

Fast forward 3.3 years …

The Dancing Bear (Charles Allmon) achieved a relative return of +15.7% with this group of (12) favorites from November 2008 — some 3.3 years ago.

The collective return is 33.0% (yes, annualized) and 8-of-12 have outperformed the Wilshire 5000 since then for an accuracy rating of 66.7%.

Dance, Mr. Allmon, dance. Thanks, Dan!

A Few Moments to Honor A Legend …

We lost a great one during February, Walter Schloss — one of Warren Buffett’s SuperInvestors of Graham-and-Doddville.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-20/walter-schloss-superinvestor-who-earned-buffett-s-praise-dies-at-95.html

From recent posts on Walter …

The heart of our Tin Cup demonstration portfolio could be described as “Schlossian.”

Value Line is good enough for Warren Buffett, who wrote about the achievements of Walter Schloss with admiration in his work, The SuperInvestors of Graham and Doddsville. Schloss relied extensively on Value Line.

Over 39 years of investing had delivered annualized returns of slightly over 20% to the clients of Walter Schloss. He worked entirely from a few publications like Value Line.

In Buffett’s words, “Schloss practices investing in a way that any ordinary investor can.”

Challenge Club (January 2013)

Challenge Club

We’ll hold the January 2013 (online) session of the Challenge Club on Thursday, January 17 at 8:30 PM ET.

Think of it as an open house — guests welcome to lurk, browse and participate as we make decisions intended to improve the model portfolio.

Registration: http://www.manifestinvesting.com/events/106-challenge-club-january-17-2013

The Challenge Club is an investment club emulation — launched back in 1999. The central theme is (1) the maintenance of a model portfolio and (2) sharing of ideas in a learning environment. The tools and resources deployed are based on the lessons and methods of the modern investment club movement.

Since 1999, the annualized total return is 6.5%. Since the Wilshire 5000 (Total Stock Market, VTSMX) has gained 3.3%/year over the same time frame — the Challenge Club has a annualized relative return of +3.2% (i.e. an “alpha” of 320 basis pts).

During 2012, the internal rate of return for the portfolio was 14.3% for a relative return of +1.4%.

Portfolio Discussion and Analysis

The following images provide an overview of the holdings, current dashboard and diversification graphics.

  • Overall Portfolio Return Forecast: 12.7% vs. 7.7% for market median — will get a boost when cash position is deployed.
  • Overall Quality: Check. (81.6) Maintain relatively high levels of quality and financial strength (90% = A+) when the median return forecast is below long-term averages.
  • Overall Growth Forecast: Check. 11.0% — the target range is 11-13%, so a blend of faster-growing companies should receive some emphasis while shopping for either accumulation candidates or screening for new additions to the portfolio.
  • Sector Diversification: Solid.

One Big Picture

As 2011 came to a disappointing close, we shared an image from www.onebigphoto.com that featured a group of people huddled and looking out over a vista.

As 2012 comes to an encouraging and successful close — continuing to reinforce a solid long-term track record, our advice is the same. Seek refuge from the noise and chaos. Focus on what’s important — the patience and discipline encouraged by the founders of the modern investment club movement. Carefully consider growth, profitability and valuation during diligent studies and continuous vigilance. Challenge assumptions. (Most participants are probably happy with our partial sale of Apple last month, “20% ago”, even if you voted against it.)

No one promised you a straight line from “A” to “B”. If they did, they should occupy the cell next to Bernie Madoff. No, the road ahead will have curves, inclines and troughs … and yes, a few weeds along the way.

But reaching that crest to enjoy a good sunset with a bunch of friends is really what long-term investing can be all about.

Value Line: Long Term Forecast (vs. Actual)

Why do we pay attention to the Value Line low total return forecast?

Well, another quarter is in the can. With the quarter ended 12/31/2012, we’re able to compare the 4-year (3-5 years) forecast from 12/31/2008 (17.9%) versus the 4-year actual annualized total return in the Value Line Arithmetic Index (22.5%).

  • This is a bottom-up forecast based on the continuous analysis of 1700 companies in the Value Line Investment Survey.
  • It’s the shape that matters. We like what we see.
  • We’re also comfortable that our median forecast (MIPAR, based on 2500 stocks) tends to track pretty well with the Value Line low total return forecast.

Following a recent day-long session on successful long-term investing that we presented in Chicago, a friend of mine walked up and asked, “Do you realize how HUGE this is?” I smiled, nodded and responded “Yes, I think so.”

When a successful long-term investor sees validation, confirmation and potential — we’re grateful and doubling down on the principles that generate these types of returns for legions of individual investors and investment clubs that we work with.